Democrats hold 3-point advantage on generic congressional ballot ahead of midterms

[brooklynite]

The Hill

Forty six percent of registered voters said they will vote for Democratic candidates in the midterm elections, a 3-point lead over Republicans, according to a Politico-Morning Consult poll released on Wednesday.

The pollster has asked the question weekly as the elections approach, with Democrats holding a slight lead in each iteration for more than a month.

Forty three percent in the latest poll indicated support for Republicans, while 12 percent said they didn’t know or had no opinion.

A majority of voters — 53 percent — who ranked the economy as their No. 1 issue favored Republicans, with 34 percent of those respondents supporting Democrats.

[Johnny2X2X]

1. These have been all over the place recently

But I think 2-3 point advantage for Dems sounds about right. The idea Dems need to win the popular vote by 4 or 5 points to retain the House is a false one, there are scenarios within the normal range where the popular vote is 50-50 and the Dems retain control.

[brooklynite]

6. I haven't seen any such scenario.

A national poll time favors the Republicans because Democratic votes are concentrated in safe urban districts. If AOC wins 70-30, everything over 51 is wasted.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. Scroll to just over halfway down this link

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/

There are scenarios where it's R+5 and Dems win the House. But they are not likely, but there are other scenarios where it's R+1 overall and Dems keep the House that aren't so far fetched. In fact, Republicans are only favored to win majority if they win the popular vote overall by 0.4.

And the same goes for those deep red districts that will go like 95-5 for the Anti Democracy Republican.

[lindysalsagal]

2. Unfortunately, that's not enough when you consider the gerrymandering. Popular numbers are

meaningless. The vote isn't counted nationally. Hillary won the popular vote by millions and lost.

[Zambero]

3. What was the combined result of all 2020 congressional races?

I know that Democrats led Republicans in total votes cast but by how much? Redistricting and existing gerrymandered districts largely favoring the GOP also need to be taken into account.

[Zeitghost]

8. In 2020

Dems got 51% of the votes and won 51% of the seats. Republicans got 48% of the votes and won 49% of the seats.

Gerrymandering is a local issue, it more or less washes out at the national level.

[budkin]

4. We need double that to hold the House

The Roe outrage needs to come through bigtime.

[SoCalDavidS]

5. THIS! nt

[Amishman]

9. likely voter models are probably even more of a crapshoot than usual

Two major conflicting currents in politics.

Frustration and discontent over inflation and the economy pushing right, outrage over Roe pushing left.

Going to be some surprises I think.