My thoughts on when to pop the champaign when watching the returns tomorrow.
Ok this post is my thoughts on which states to watch to know when the President is 'for sure' going to win. It is not a thread about his chances to win any particular state, just which states to watch for knowing how things are looking as the evening progresses. Starting from the east coast and going west, here are the states/situations I am looking for.
1) If Romney looses any of these 3 states it is time to pop the Champaign, - FL, NC, VA.
2) If the President looses PA then we have major problems.
3) If Romney looses NH then make sure the Champaign is on ice.
Next the big prize states:
4) Ohio - this as all of you know, is the big prize of the night. If Romney looses this state his only chance is a sweep of WI, IA and CO if he lost NH. If Romney wins NH then he needs CO and WI.
5) If the President wins Ohio and has NH, then he only needs 2 of the following states - NV, IA, WI, CO
6) If the President wins Ohio but looses NH, then he needs any 3 of the following states NV, IA, WI, CO or CO or WI and either NV or IA.
7) If Romney wins Ohio and wins in NH then we have big problems.
8) If Romney wins Ohio but not NH, then he needs 1 of the following - NV, IA, WI, CO.
SO, I will be first looking for the PA/VA,FL,NC results for a blowout. Assuming none, then I am looking at NH as the first hurdle. Without NH, Romney has a much more narrow path. After that, OH. Then the 'multiple choice' states of NV,CO,WI,IA.
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