A hurricane is headed for Florida

[mia]

Link to tweet

[Ocelot II]

1. Will it swallow up Mierda-Loco?

[jimfields33]

8. Middle of state. No water so no trump house!!!!!!!

[Phoenix61]

2. I think I'll wait until NHC calls it. nt

[mitch96]

11. +1

[Fullduplexxx]

3. That stunt money is gonna be needed huh stupid

[malaise]

4. Looks like me first

[Hortensis]

17. Yup. Glad you're pros at this at least.

[Silent3]

5. Is Biden standing by with a black Sharpie to alter its course?

You know, like a "real president" would be?

[durablend]

30. No but the WH is stocking up on paper towels

Like a "real president" would!

[brooklynite]

6. No, a hurricane is NOT heading to Florida...or anywhere else.

A tropical disturbance off South America has a 40% chance that it MIGHT turn into a Tropical Depression which MIGHT turn in to a Tropical Storm which MIGHT turn in to a Hurricane.



(UPDATE: Probability of STORM formation has DROPPED to 10%)

[secondwind]

7. Phew!

[malaise]

10. Hmmmmmmmmmmm 70% chance

[mia]

22. 80% chance now

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Additional
development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next few days as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely
monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty
winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[malaise]

23. Strengthened quickly

Early days for us - will probably be a TS or Cat 1 as it moved through the Windward islands.
WeLl see what happens after that.

[mia]

20. Latest update for INVEST 98L

Link to tweet

[48656c6c6f20]

32. Oops

[brooklynite]

33. Completely accurate at the time posted

[obamanut2012]

9. Nope, Denis Phillips says NO WAY, and he is never wrong

Not once in the years I ahve followed him.

And, for all of you saying HIT MAL!!!! LOL HAHAHHAHAHA? Guess what? An awful lot of us on here live within 30-40 mile radius of Palm BEach, so thanks a hell of a lot for wanting us to be devastated. Think before you say this stuff. God.

[Phoenix61]

12. I don't think people understand how devastating a hurricane can be.

Michael seriously effed up where I live. It, quite literally, will never be the same. Chronic flooding issues when it rains because the water table has risen 1-2 feet. Drainage ditches and storm sewers weren’t designed to move the amount of water they have to move now. Seems losing 80% of your tree canopy has unexpected consequences.

[Chainfire]

14. We may be neighbors. The forestry dept. estimated that I lost 80% of my trees in Michael.

[Phoenix61]

16. Yep. They closed the paper mill that had been running

for over 90 years. They lost all the local trees. The land they were on is nothing but swamp now with a ginormous pile of firewood on top of it because they can’t get the heavy machinery in to clear it. DeSatan dicked around for 4 years and just now sent money to help address the issue.

[Chainfire]

18. Last year the state granted me a few thousand bucks to help clean up the damage on my place.

I appreciated it, but it wasn't enough to hire the heavy equipment to do the work. All of my horizontal trees remain horizontal. There are parts of my place that I haven't seen since the storm because the trees are stacked like pick-up sticks rendering the place inaccessible even on foot.

[Phoenix61]

19. Sheesh. I'm sorry. nt

[Hermit-The-Prog]

34. There are mobile sawyers who might be able to help with that.

People on the forestryforum.com have been known to come from multiple states to help turn fallen trees into usable lumber. Sometimes on their own dime, even.

[malaise]

35. That is great news

I hope a lot of debris is reusable

[Hermit-The-Prog]

37. All fallen tree debris is reusable, one way or another. :)

I remember a newbie asking a guy who ran the gantry-type control booth in a large, commercial sawmill in Michigan, "What do you do with the waste?" Of course, there's no such thing. Even the dust was captured to be used to provide electricity for the mill.

I don't know about other debris. And I don't mean to be insensitive to people who have suddenly had everything they worked for, all their physical mementos, etc., suddenly reduced to being "debris". They need help. It's a bit overwhelming just thinking about their situation and trying to imagine what they're living through.

[Chainfire]

36. There were hundreds of square miles of the mess, nobody wanted the downed timber.

Most of the stuff that was processed was shredded an piled on the ground, where, four years later, it still sits. My place will recover, the downed trees will rot and new trees will take their place.

[mia]

15. Thank you, but Denis Philips' statement was about TD#8. This post is about Invest 98L.

Link to tweet

[mia]

21. Latest update from Denis Phillips

Link to tweet

[malaise]

24. The one we're tracking will be

Hermine

[getagrip_already]

13. its more dangerous if it goes into the gulf....

Otherwise it needs to pass south of the islands and cross cuba. None of which will be good for development.

I'll go with the wait for NWS option.

[malaise]

25. Sure looks that way this morning

BettyDavis says to watch this carefully

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

26. Too early to tell where exactly, headed to the Gulf of Mexico, a week away

Low wind shear, Euro model has it turning north, then east to Tampa, other models more straight north, Panama City.

Its a dart board at this point.

[bluecollar2]

27. Hopefully not

It was bad enough a few years ago with Maria and Irma.

No that the subdivision has been completed around me the last thing I need is the inevitable associated problems.

[malaise]

28. You were correct

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

29. New model runs have it on the track of 2004 Hurricane Charley, almost exactly, then up the E coast

Still a week away, wait n see...

[malaise]

31. that was pretty good n/t