Election Night: When we will know we won

[cthulu2016]

I look to Virginia and New Hampshire. Both close the polls in the first wave, and it is possible that both of them will be resolved before Ohio. Obama winning both VA and NH would mean that even winning Ohio wouldn't help Romney.

He would need Ohio plus a large unexpected state —Wisconsin or Pennsylvania or (chuckle) Minnesota.

So those would be the highest potential early decider states.

Also, if we win just New Hampshire, that 4 EV blows a hole in a lot of Romney paths to 270. (It makes Colorado a must win) So he really needs to sweep OH, FL, VA and NH.

Here's the NH problem, for Romney. Even if Romney had a good night and won the big three (OH, VA, FL) it still only gets him to 266 EV, so even on his best night he would need NH or CO. And having to win one out of two is a lot easier than having to win one out of one.

On the other hand, since Romney needs both VA and NH, if we lost both it would not be a huge setback.

[uppityperson]

1. Personally I'd like to see them wait until they count all the votes. Accuracy vs speed.

[skip fox]

2. When do polls in Ohio close?

[cthulu2016]

3. 7:30 PM local time (EST)

But everyone says Ohio will be slower to count

[grasswire]

4. Schrum says VA will be an early indicator

A win in Virginia will set the tone.

[cthulu2016]

6. Hard to picture us winning VA without getting over 290 EV

So it would indeed set the tone

[sadbear]

5. If President Obama has at least 192 EVs by 9pm EST, it's over.

[Brother Buzz]

7. Before the polls close on the West Coast

That's a given. Hawaiians will hear about the victory while they are still basking in the sun.

[hrmjustin]

8. Remember the media will not call states for several hours after the polls close.

It will be a long night, but by midnight we really should know what happened.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. I hope we will get over the 270 early in the night

Read Florida among others. I really hope OH becomes pretty irrelevant...as in your face SOS in OH and all shenanigans.

[fiorello]

10. In 2008 Virginia and NH were deceptive - McCain was ahead early, though Obama won big

It seemed that Appalachia got counted first, northern Virginia last. Obama only went ahead in Virginia at the very end, long after it was decided - I think he eventually won by +8. Don't worry if Virginia looks bad at the start!

Obama also was behind in the initial count in New Hampshire.

By contrast, the Ohio vote came in fairly uniformly in 2008 - Obama was ahead, start to finish.

It may help to look at some counties for an early indication - otherwise wait for Ohio.

If Obama wins Ohio, he will win the election if he wins just 2 of the smaller swing states: New Hampshire, Iowa or Nevada, where he is favored. Or Colorado or Virginia. I expect them to come in (for Obama) in the following order: first Ohio, then New Hampshire, then Iowa, with Virginia and the western states at the end. Ohio will make it 99% certain, Iowa will clinch it.

[Arkana]

11. Also, DO NOT PANIC over early VA numbers.

The South/West part of the state--the Romney strongholds--get called first.

Then NoVa rolls in.

[grasswire]

12. Heileman predicts an unsettled election for days.

he thinks there will be challenges and a mess.

[JitterbugPerfume]

13. depends on how close it is

[djg21]

14. Called by 11:00 PM for Obama

While the popular vote may be close (it remains to be seen how close), my bet is that the networks will call the election for Obama between 10:30 and 11:00 PM on the basis of the electoral vote.

[demwing]

15. CA + WA + OR + NV + NM + IL + MN = 119 EV

As soon as Obama hits some combination of East Coast, Southern, and Midwest states (other than those above) that total 151 EV, you'll know we've won.

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

16. to lose va and nh early in, would break their spirit ,we will take va and nh n\t