Why I think the polls are likely correct
Last edited Mon Sep 12, 2022, 08:55 PM - Edit history (1)
and not off like they were in 2020. First, there is no way pollsters haven't done some adjustments after 2020 so there is no way some of the error wasn't fixed. Second, we have seen the electorate changing post Dobbs. Both young people and women are registering in huge numbers and changing who is in the electorate. That is why we are doing better in the elections that have happened recently than we were expected to. There have been a few special elections post Dobbs and while we haven't won them all, we have uniformly done vastly better than we were expected to in nearly all of them. We did better than we were expected to in all of them.
We can still lose the Senate but it seems quite unlikely at this point. PA is looking good as is WI which is two pick ups. Only two of our seats appear to be in any danger (NV and GA) and I think we should win them both, even if narrowly. Even if we lose them both, if the pick ups happen, then we will be where we are now. If we win one with the pick ups then we will be at 51. If we win both, then 52. their route to 51 is harder than ours to 52. That is a good place for us.
The House is tougher. NY hurt, no denying that. We were counting on gaining several seats and may lose one. We also got screwed in Ohio, no other way to say it. If we do lose the House it could well be from an illegitimate drawing of the map in Ohio. That would suck.
In any case, I think the polls now are right. Time will tell I guess.
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