General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDoes anyone here know why Florida and Ohio are no longer swing states?
I mean, every election from 1992 to 2012, they were decided by the thinnest of margins or easily won by Obama or Clinton. Then, in just a 4 year span, from 2012 to 2016, they seemingly inexplicably turn solid red. Remember Tim Russert "Florida, Florida, Florida", "Ohio, Ohio, Ohio." I am honestly at a loss to explain what took these states off the board and turned them into flyovers. Any thoughts would be welcome.
Maybe we swapped Florida and Ohio being competitive to having Colorado and Virginia be relatively safe blue states whereas they too were once competitive.
P.S.: Ohio has a chance to rejoin the swing state group if the Vance-Ryan race really is competitive but Election Twitter is shitting all over that idea, even though I personally, looking at the numbers think that Ryan is the frontrunner, at this point, and Vance, at the minimum, has some major catching up to do.
There have also been some polls showing Demmings tied with Rubio, but, here too, Election Twitter is shitting all over those polls and insisting Rubio is the favourite.
Let's just assume, for the purposes of this thread, that Election Twitter is correct.
I guess we could be entering an era where Georgia, Arizona, and eventually Texas, are the new Ohio and Florida, although Texas seems like a far more daunting climb than Florida and Ohio ever were in the old days.
MaryMagdaline
(6,859 posts)Ready-made Republicans. Also, Old white people retiring to Florida are disproportionately Republican. Simple change in demographics.
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)And money gained by hook or crook.
former9thward
(32,169 posts)Nothing new there.
MaryMagdaline
(6,859 posts)Now they are retiring from red districts from up north in disproportionate numbers.
Tetrachloride
(7,914 posts)also, Ohio lost blue momentum in 2004 if i recall correctly
I look forward to more experienced information than myself.
Dirty Socialist
(3,252 posts)A lot of people in Kentucky have moved to Ohio for better jobs. Also, Ohio has experienced a brain drain, where the smart people have had to move, also for better jobs. In addition, Ohio now has the most restrictive voting laws in the state. These are some of the reasons why Ohio is a red state. However, I think Ryan will win the Senate seat. The Ohio GOPs turn further right is starting to hurt them.
Buckeyeblue
(5,505 posts)As a kid, we two Democratic senators that won easily. When they retired we didn't have strong candidates to take their place. The other problem is that a lot of us left Ohio after college.
I would also blame the decline of manufacturing. UAW members were reliable Democratic voters.
What I find interesting is that growing up my dad and my friends' dads who also worked in the factory hated their jobs and told us we should do everything we could to avoid working there. And we did. Now there is a push to bring those jobs back. Do people really want those jobs?
Doremus
(7,261 posts)Good solid union jobs paying better than decent wages with excellent health care and defined pension plan? WTF is there not to want?? Sure, dads want the best for their kids but when they were giving that advice they had no way of knowing that student loans would become so oppressive or that minimum wage would no longer assure a decent living.
The writing on the wall here was after nafta and the eventual disappearance of 90% of our high paying union jobs. We managed to remain purple for a few cycles but gerrymandering killed off any hopes of returning to blue.
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)To win the electoral vote! I know, stayed up late and watched the meltdown 2012!
https://theweek.com/articles/470684/karl-roves-epic-election-night-battle-fox-news-forecasters
https://deadline.com/2012/11/carl-rove-fox-news-election-night-meltdown-video-367598/
Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)
rainy This message was self-deleted by its author.
Claustrum
(4,846 posts)On a presidential level, it still leans red very much. It has more to do with the quality of the candidates rather than how red or blue the state is. Its like Doug Jones winning in Alabama. You wouldnt think Alabama was or will be in play after his win.
For Ohio, I think it has to do with our losing support of the white working class in the mid west states where they used to be democrats but took a solid red shift. Partly due to being left behind as manufacturing moving to other countries, our partys focus on non-white social issues and the republicans focus on white issues. It is easy to switch when one party keeping talking about you specifically and telling you that all of your problems are from democrats focus on equality.
For Florida, its probably the growing retirement communities and Latino community that are religious.
ananda
(28,923 posts)...
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)Guess you have to live here instead of insults. Facts matter!
Demsrule86
(68,867 posts)in order to win the presidency. If you lose Virginia, you can't lose Ohio...and you need the rest of the rustbelt. We lost the Virginia Governors' election -think about that. I also gave us Georgia for this map.
Now we win Virginia but not Georgia and the entire rustbelt. We still win the presidency.
Now we win Virginia and Georgia but not Ohio...look what happens if we lose the entire rust belt. We can't win the presidency. You must have the rustbelt in order to win the presidency.
So you better consider this when opining that the rust belt has rusted out as if we want to win, we need to support the rustbelt with jobs as Biden is doing and stop taking it for granted because we won't get it if we don't work for it and that includes Ohio. It can be won...President Obama proved that.
You can make your own electoral college map at the website below...this is what I used.
https://www.270towin.com
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)Last edited Mon Aug 8, 2022, 02:49 PM - Edit history (1)
I have lived in this state all my life and know they put Obama over the top. Those sneering Rust belt remarks came from years ago.
I also know areas of this state have moved into the future like Nan Whaley who revitalized Dayton. Given a chance she would do the same, but this state has many Democratic Mayors.
BYW, MSNBC IS doing an expose on how corrupt Republicans in Ohio are,passing laws people do not want. We have to vote like our rights depend on it. Ohio is 64% Democrat.
Demsrule86
(68,867 posts)Statewide elections. And the House maps are on court.
Samrob
(4,298 posts)Demsrule86
(68,867 posts)Demsrule86
(68,867 posts)I suggest you play around with the map and see what happens when you eliminate the rustbelt from our column. We will lose every presidential election. Also, we need to win either Ohio or Virginia. We lost the governor's race.
It is an interactive map...use Imgur to post it by hitting copy image address at the Imgur site.
https://www.270towin.com/
Captain Zero
(6,870 posts)I know it from my family cousins in Ohio.
Even the generation that was unionized started slipping due to racism.
Then the next generation was stripped of unions and supplied fervent, unregulated Christianity in place of mainline denominations.
It looks like to me that gerrymandering has some definite effect.
So those three underlined.
Plus from the youngest generation there I am observing shit like confederate flags and low education levels. Which may be just a symptom of what I have underlined.
Although Sherrod Brown seems to have no trouble winning?
Maybe he can carry Mansfield, where one of my uncles lived, and Sherrod lives there too.
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)Personally living here all my life. From the highest wages in the country to the serious losses of Auto plants during the Bush recession.
Ohio has moved forward in the last 12 years, thanks to Democratic Mayors. But we still have the old rural. In the industrious cities, people vote Democrat.
shrike3
(3,893 posts)Racism, xenophobia and homophobia played a part.
Demsrule86
(68,867 posts)who worked hard to get Obama elected. There was much gratitude towards Obama.
shrike3
(3,893 posts)I assume you don't. I was simply reporting on what happened locally.
Demsrule86
(68,867 posts)I have had a different experience and have worked every election these last 14 years once my kids got older. If we peel off rural voters and win the cities, we can win statewide elections...including presidential elections. It is what Georgia did. I find Democrats to be demoralized in this state...but I think we can get them out, especially this year with Roe and the fact that the Governor and legislature are involved in a bribery scandal...There are still many Democrats in this state and true independents.
shrike3
(3,893 posts)Good luck to you.
Demsrule86
(68,867 posts)Demsrule86
(68,867 posts)county. It cost good-paying middle-class jobs. Jobs are really important everywhere.
uponit7771
(90,378 posts)Claustrum
(4,846 posts)But from what I read, Ohio has been losing population so I assume some of those people moved to where the jobs are.
JT45242
(2,320 posts)Those boxes of votes from black districts that SCOTUS ruled not to count made a lot of people wonder why bother.
People like Scalia and Alito would decide who would win.
Plus, never underestimate the power of racism and the fear if the browning of America.
Heard a lot of crazy birtherism shit in Ohio when I still lived there. No real good response to "his mom is an American citizen from Illinois so by blood he is an American citizen no matter where he is born."
DFW
(54,520 posts)Probably wouldnt have helped, I suppose ..
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)W_HAMILTON
(7,878 posts)Gerrymandering, voter suppression, etc. Once Republicans get voted into office, they go into over-drive on that sort of stuff. That and the culture wars bullshit is their only agenda.
Even more reason to not let Republicans get a foothold anywhere, because once they do, they are hard to uproot. They are like a cancer on democracy.
IcyPeas
(21,957 posts)brooklynite
(95,060 posts)In 2014,. after re-electing Obama, Ohio voted R for Governor, AG, SoS, State Auditor.
airmid
(500 posts)forty years of voting. It has fluctuated at time but my area, JD Vances area btw, has always voted red. only the larger cities are blue enough to give us any real Dem seats. But thats changed since President Obama. There is an imbedded racism here
a holdover from Appalachian transplants. To be fair, not everyone is a racist here but even in seemingly woke area its subtly everywhere and the GOP here know just how to play it. The schools have gotten progressively worse, creating adults without critical thinking skills. And dont even get me started on the MAGA hat wearing cultists who populate every rural store, fairground, and park.
All that being said, I think Ryan has a real chance. The farmers around me dont trust Vance. Dont like his double speak and generally see him as a whiny spoiled brat who doesnt appreciate the hardships his family went through. (Dont ask).
TimRyan speaks like they do, and sees the value of work. They get that. It must be a mistake that hes a Democrat. (Their words).
Thats the view from my corner of Preble Co. Ohio.
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)Dayton and most of Cincinnati vote Democratic.
Another strange note. All the counties on the Ohio river had voted red for 100 years all voted for Obama.
The areas that have the jobs all vote Democratic.
airmid
(500 posts)Is it Chabot?I need to go look.
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)Hamilton, Cincinnati,proper, not the suburbs and Dayton vote Democratic because that is where the jobs are.
John Boehner drew his own district. He was in charge in the last one. His District went from Westchester,up 75, around Fayton to Miami Countty.
Dayton and Cincinnati are virtually one city now with all the new growth. The last time I was down 75 it was surprising.. Miami County is now growing
But the shells of the old steel mills are still there. Middletown and Hamilton.
My family lives in Lebanon. I saw Cabots face plastered there
https://chabot.house.gov/
I have Mike Turner who never contacts or answers unless he is running.
no_hypocrisy
(46,315 posts)Jane Mayer outlined this premise/thesis in the latest "New Yorker Radio Hour" on WNYC radio this week.
https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/tnyradiohour/segments/jane-mayer-ohio-right
Several comments highlight the role gerrymandering in making Ohio red, but let's not forget that gerrymandering does not apply to Statewide races such as Presidential, US Senate, Governor, AG, and Secretary of State, it would only affect the US House.
whopis01
(3,535 posts)Dont forget about the state house and state senate.
In 2020 the Presidential vote in Ohio was roughly 53% R to 45% D. Not very far from an even split.
The state legislature does not reflect these numbers.
The state senate is 76% R to 24%D.
The state house is 65% R to 35% D.
The success that Republicans have at this level is due to gerrymandering. That it turn gives them significant power over how elections are run in the state and the ability to enact legislation to benefit them in the statewide elections (voter suppression techniques, etc.)
JI7
(89,289 posts)With Ohio it has to do with young people and others that tend to lean more liberal leaving the state which makes the voters in the state lean more conservative .
In Florida it's because a lot of right wing types keep moving into the state .
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)But things are changing, thanks to working from home and lower living costs.
Demsrule86
(68,867 posts)and intend to work the election (first time for them) and try to get GOP types kicked out and I think we can if we work hard.
maxsolomon
(33,473 posts)I'm from Cincy's Conservative Catholic West Side. Steve Chabot's law office was a block from the house I grew up in. I went to Univ of Cincy. I lived in OTR before the riots that led to its gentrification.
My brother left, my sister left (for rural IN, where she's an anomaly). 1 brother is still there.
The brain drain of Liberals is real. Maybe 1/3 of my HS & college friends stayed. The rest are in NYC, SD, SF, LA, Portland, Sea...
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)maxsolomon
(33,473 posts)Raven123
(4,949 posts)Manufacturers left, jobs left and people left. Many of those remaining have bought into the taxes are the reason and all taxes are bad argument.
The Tea Party took hold in Ohio. I remember seeing national news items on demonstraions in Columbus. People like Jim Jordan were elected as were more GOP. More gerrymandering and you get a red state.
Remember, however that Democrat Sherrod Brown wins because of how hard he has spoken out on jobs. Tim Ryan is tapping into the same vein. They both oppose off-shoring jobs and dont take the taxes are all bad bait.
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)Voters flipped out because that was Public Unions. 1.3 million signatures on the ballot. We voted overwhelmingly to stop him.
Then he went secretly, taking money from public Education to give to his propivate school friends. Scandal after scandal, ending in the SCOT ONLINE scandal DeWine promises to prosecute every time he runs for another office, never does. He signed bill that ended up in a bribery scandal
DeWine is a lying,little sneak, as bad as Trump!
Raven123
(4,949 posts)ECOT has lost every time they have gone to court. Outside of Ryan, dont read of much Democratic organizing in Ohio. Sad, because the Supreme Court is going to go farther right when OConnor retiree, unless a Dem is elected.
https://www.wksu.org/education/2021-10-05/ohio-supreme-court-rules-final-means-just-that-in-ecot-case
Demsrule86
(68,867 posts)Combined with Roe and the Biden chip program saving and creating jobs...we MAY be able to elect a Democratic governor...it is a state-wide race. It is a long shot...but in this climate, it is possible.
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)Ken Strickland, Democratic Governor. Voters blamed him for the Bush recession, the Republican Legislature pushed that lie.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/ohio/governorsY
sl8
(14,055 posts)Last edited Mon Aug 8, 2022, 08:29 AM - Edit history (1)
https://www.npr.org/podcasts/458929150/the-new-yorker-radio-hour(27:54 min. audio at link)
Jane Mayer on Ohio's Lurch to the Right
Last month, the story of a 10-year-old rape victim captured national headlines. The young girl was forced to travel out of state because of Ohio's draconian abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest, which would have been nearly unthinkable until very recently. Jane Mayer took a deep dive into statehouse politics to learn how a longtime swing stateOhio voted twice for President Barack Obamaended up legislating like a radically conservative one. Its laws, she says, are increasingly out of step with the state's voters, and this is owing to a sweeping Republican effort at gerrymandering. While familiar, gerrymandering "has become much more of a dark art," Mayer tells David Remnick, "thanks to computers and digital mapping. They have figured out ways now to do it that are so extreme, you can create districts [in which the incumbent] cannot be knocked out by someone from another party." Mayer also speaks with David Pepper, an Ohio politician and the author of "Laboratories of Autocracy," who explains how a district is firmly controlled by one party, the representative is driven by the primary process inexorably toward extremism, until you have "a complete meltdown of democracy."
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)That has DeWines son on it ruled 5 times the maps were illegal. They went over the Court, found a corrupt Judgewho approved on that had been declared illegal. Corruption, bribes,our right stealing is what they are doing now.
And JD Vanceis dub asa rock,telling women to stay in abusive marriages because divorce was hurting children. If you read his book you can see how his childhood distorted his thinking.
As The old Buckeye farmer says, that guy aint right!
Whiskeytide
(4,463 posts)
the populations in numerous states during his 2016 campaign. All of the reasons posted in this thread played a role, but I think this one has been ignored for the most part by conventional wisdom.
There were record new voter registrations in quite a few states in 2016, including FL. These new voters had found their cult leader, and crawled out from under their rocks and registered in large numbers. Theyre still registered and now they vote in every election.
You dont see it in the deeper red states because they were already so red, but Тяцмp out performed McCain and Romney there as well - especially in the rural areas.
The hatred for Тяцмp on the left countered it to a degree, but not enough. I think FL at least is red for the foreseeable future.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)of all backgrounds who were supposed to help save us are estranged and apathetic.
Hispanic/Latino demos, famous for relatively low voting activity, produced more new voters in 2020, and more of those voted tRump/Republican than Democratic. Even though historically they've tended to register Democrat, most Hispanic/Latino groups are conservative in general, with only a couple smallish islands more culturally liberal, and apparently trumpism drew more than it appalled. They also turned out more in battleground states.
Novara
(5,876 posts)... after 30 years in California to see how openly racist and backwards this state has become. It's always been racist, but now it's right in the open.
Michigan used to be solidly blue and is now purple, and it's shocking to see the difference after being away 30 years. I am an educated professional but I couldn't find a job in my field for a while, so I worked as temps in factories just to earn money. The factories lost a shit-ton of their union power. I was working in an auto parts factory where people were expected to work 60 hours a week or more, Monday-Saturday, 10-12 hours a day. I was confused because when I left the state, the unions had so much power that there was no way employees would be subject to that sort of non-ending killing schedule. And somehow, these uneducated factory workers believed the lies that republicans would somehow help them rather than the truth, which is that republicans were the reason they were working so hard with fewer and fewer protections. They bought into the lies and propaganda because they are uneducated.
Which brings me to the schools. Betsy Fucking DeVos ruined public schooling in Michigan. "School choice" means that parents with more money could afford to drive their kids to white schools in the suburbs while low income and black families couldn't, so the schools in the cities became worse and worse, and test scores plummeted because teachers would rather work for the suburban white schools. The school I went to as a kid churned out a Rhodes scholar in my graduating class and is now ranked one of the lowest in the state 40 years later. The town is 34% black but the school is 70% black, and they have teacher retention problems. White parents drive their kids elsewhere. The quality of education in schools like that is much poorer than the white suburbs.
So. You have a mess of a storm of poor education, limited opportunities, shitty working conditions with fewer and fewer worker protections, and racial hatred multiplies. The GOP exploited that racial hatred. And as a result, my state went from solidly blue pro-union working class to racist red.
I came back to Michigan to take care of my Mom, who had Alzheimer's. I had always thought I'd move back to California when she passed but in the meantime I found a great job. After she passed I sold her house and I bought a house in a blue city. But my city is surrounded by racist, uneducated rednecks. It still shocks me how blatantly open the racism is now. I am happy to live in a mixed-race city and I have great neighbors. But people in my old hometown are actually afraid to go into my city because of their racism. They think there are black gangs just waiting to pounce on white people (I walk around my city and ride my bike around my city, unafraid, because I know it is OK). This is utter ignorance and racism. But it is so entrenched. and the GOP exploited it.
True Blue American
(17,998 posts)Had local help. Levies because the younger wanted their children to have a good education.
Novara
(5,876 posts)That's why I was utterly horrified when the orange motherfucker named Betsy DeVile as secretary of education. I saw how she destroyed education in Michigan. I don't know if the state will recover.
Once these corrupt republican assholes get their hands on a state, it's all downhill, man.
llmart
(15,572 posts)I'm from Ohio but live in Michigan now. In between I lived in the South. When I transferred from a southern state to Michigan I just assumed that I'd leave the racism behind, but my new neighbors in Michigan said to me, " if you think we don't have racism in Michigan and that the South has a lock on that, just wait. Michigan is loaded with rednecks." I have to admit that I didn't believe my neighbors at first, but it didn't take me long to realize that they were so right. I was disappointed.
Being raised in Ohio I am also extremely disappointed in that state. I still would take Michigan over Ohio any day and I still have relatives there. My two grown children and I have several degrees among us and we'd never go back. Ohio seems to be stuck in some time warp. As someone else said, the educated people left and never came back. I left in 1982.
lark
(23,203 posts)Plus Scott gerrymandered the courts. R's cheat massively here and the courts go along with it because they are Federalist fascists too.
Kaleva
(36,406 posts)Demsrule86
(68,867 posts)Ohio. And we have Sherrod Brown. We are gerrymandered to the hilt and still fighting over redistricting. I can tell you why Trump won though...globalism. We lost so many factories and people lost everything...I heard some Democrats saying that jobs wouldn't come back and we need to accept that...retraining is where it is at...but there were no jobs after retraining.
I remember a few years ago. Right here on this forum. People said how much better foreign cars were and how unions were not important. The unions were abandoned for the most part. Trump said he could fix this...of course, he couldn't but my neighbor said to me just before he hung himself that why not give him a chance? I knew better. Trump is a monster who bankrupted my Dad's neighbors and friends in Connecticut. My neighbor had lost everything during the restructuring of GM. He worked for Delphi and lost his pension. This was in 08.
President Obama save Ford and GM through an amazing bankruptcy/restructuring bailout which save the autos who later paid back the money with interest. It was not popular as folks were sick of bailouts. But it saved the rustbelt. And President Obama won twice with ease.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton ran for the presidency. She was blamed for NAFTA which is still bitterly despised here. It wasn't fair she wasn't even in office. I didn't expect that to happen. But Sen. Sanders would have lost too as he voted against saving the autos in December of 08.
Not only that just before the election, there was also a push for TPP which actually allowed slave-owning countries to participate. All of these trade agreements hurt the rustbelt and cost American jobs. It definitely influenced the election in Ohio and other parts of the rustbelt. I believe and then you had Trump promising to save manufacturing...which was a lie but as I said before people were ready to give him a chance.
President Biden's chip bill will help. It has saved two Ford plants in the Cleveland area already and will create jobs in Parma GM IMHO. Numerous parts plants throughout the Mid West will benefit too. President Biden understands the rust belt and may very well win Ohio in 28. Ohio is not so much a red state as a state whose people feel they were abandoned. The joke was always every politician showed up in Ohio during Presidential years, but then you never saw them again. It is a tough thing to watch your kids leave the state because there are few opportunities. I also think Roe will help Tim Ryan and other Democrats this year.
themaguffin
(3,833 posts)overall, FL certainly leans red.
DeSantis is sure cocky and extreme for having barely won.
TheBlackAdder
(28,262 posts)mackdaddy
(1,532 posts)Even down here in SE Ohio, every trailer has one of those funnels (sat dish) where the lies are poured in.
Plus the Repubs went all out for the 2010 elections and were in control during the redistricting. Even now after laws to try to get fair districts, the Repubs are still at it and forcing bad maps through. Part of the Repubs takeover in 2010 taking over then was the president then had darker skin and kinky hair.
Then a lot of people just bought all of Trumps lies, and still do. Stupid is as stupid does.
librechik
(30,678 posts)The Ohio Supreme Court told the repukkkes not to use their death-to-Dems map over and over and then they just went ahead and used the rigged map anyway. That's what they do nowadays.