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Meanwhile, in the Arctic Ocean... (Original Post) XemaSab Nov 2012 OP
Fuck. n/t MirrorAshes Nov 2012 #1
It looks like Skelly Nov 2012 #2
The "flatlines" are the good news XemaSab Nov 2012 #4
Holy Christ! That is an exponential decrease. Chemisse Nov 2012 #3
K&R. Ocean warming has accelerated and means more vicious storms ahead. Overseas Nov 2012 #5
2015 for an ice-free September...2016 for an ice-free August, September, & October..... Junkdrawer Nov 2012 #6
Yep, you are reading it right. Odin2005 Nov 2012 #7
Way I'm reading it. The way lowering of Albedo in the Arctic is already screwing with CONUS Strelnikov_ Nov 2012 #8
Jennifer Francis of Rutgers promised a wild fall/winter. Junkdrawer Nov 2012 #9
Have to check that out. Strelnikov_ Nov 2012 #10
Links... Junkdrawer Nov 2012 #11
Thanks Strelnikov_ Nov 2012 #12

Chemisse

(30,821 posts)
3. Holy Christ! That is an exponential decrease.
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 08:26 AM
Nov 2012

I seriously think it is too late to stop this.

But I think we should be at least trying!

Overseas

(12,121 posts)
5. K&R. Ocean warming has accelerated and means more vicious storms ahead.
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 03:28 PM
Nov 2012

I'm so sad that the warnings issued back in the 1980's about global warming were so mild. Some people wanted to warn people using the more severe predictions, but were told not to scare people, that it was important that people feel there was something we could do if we took action then & there. We didn't want to discourage people.

And here we are with accelerated global warming. People thought the warnings weren't that bad and didn't warrant changing our ways that much. Which gave the fossil fuel industry the space they needed to sow doubt and delay action for decades.

Junkdrawer

(27,993 posts)
6. 2015 for an ice-free September...2016 for an ice-free August, September, & October.....
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 03:30 PM
Nov 2012

Am I reading that right?

Strelnikov_

(7,772 posts)
8. Way I'm reading it. The way lowering of Albedo in the Arctic is already screwing with CONUS
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 03:44 PM
Nov 2012

weather patterns, it looks like things are about to get real.

Meanwhile, here in Pigsknuckle, they are building in the floodplain like hell wouldn't have it.
Can't get enough of fried food shacks and car dealerships.

No problem. As an Engineer involved with (re)building public infrastructure, the futures so bright, gotta wear shades.
Big flood, outcry we gotta do somethin, get paid for study and report recommending changes, report ignored because it limits unfettered development, big flood, outcry we gotta do somethin, get paid for study and report recommending changes, . . . and on and on . . .

Junkdrawer

(27,993 posts)
9. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers promised a wild fall/winter.
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 03:51 PM
Nov 2012

Way too alarmist for the media and/or the sensible climate community to pick up on.

Strelnikov_

(7,772 posts)
10. Have to check that out.
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 04:05 PM
Nov 2012

Beginning to appear that warming of the Arctic is really screwing with the jet patterns, resulting in historic El Nino/La Nina weather patterns in CONUS to go out the window.

Last winter was a strong La Nina which would indicate a wetter/cooler winter for the upper midwest (UM). However, the NAO was strongly positive (warmer/dryer UM). NAO won.

For this winter, NWS leaned toward a mild El Nino forming to develop their estimate of a dryer/warmer winter in the UM.

When I looked earlier in the week, NAO is strongly negative. I look for a winter like 09/10, one cold/wild ride.

Strelnikov_

(7,772 posts)
12. Thanks
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 08:30 PM
Nov 2012

After you mentioned her earlier I found a couple of articles. Very interesting.

Couple of years ago after the summer 2010 events here in Pigsknuckle, and working in river mechanics, I was thinking about a braided jet, similar to higher energy streams. Interesting that it is the opposite. Like she addressed in an article, what is happening is like meandering streams, a lower energy system, because the driving energy for the jet, the temperature differential between the arctic and mid-latitudes, is reduced.

Regardless, the results she described are what I have observed the last few years. The entire summer of 2010 was one system after another that would train thunderstorms every evening for three to four days. The summer culminated with a record flood right here in Pigsknuckle. The rain the evening before was not exceptional, 4"+/-, but since the two nights previous had also seen ~4" each night, everything that fell the final night was direct runoff.

May 2011 Dakotas/Montana rainfall event. Record post-regulation (dam) flooding on the upper Missouri.
June 2008 Iowa flooding.

Both of the above events, the climate just seemed to lock up all of a sudden, keep dumping rain. In general, no massive single events, but just rain followed by more rain, monsoon/saturated conditions, so by the end the total mass of every drop that fell was runoff.


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