On Politics: Calculating just how divided America is

[Celerity]

Measuring America’s Divide: ‘It’s Gotten Worse’

Two scholars are trying to calculate just how polarized the United States has been over the past four decades — and how split it is now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/us/politics/vanderbilt-unity-index.html

https://archive.ph/F3rPq



At a time of sporadic-but-disturbing episodes of political violence in America, of intense disputes over state and federal power and even of loose talk about the possibility of another civil war, is there any way to calculate how divided we are? Or do we just need to trust our gut? Two scholars at Vanderbilt University are trying for a more precise estimate. Their new measure, called the Vanderbilt Unity Index, uses a variety of indicators to quantify just how united or disunited the United States has been over the past four decades.

“No surprise — it’s gotten worse,” said John Geer, the dean of the university’s College of Arts and Science and co-director of its Vanderbilt Poll. The index ranges from zero to 100, with zero meaning no unity whatsoever, and 100 meaning complete unity. Most of the time, the country is somewhere between 50 and 70 or so.



Geer pointed to a 40-year graph his team put together, which showed the trend line peaking in the high 60s or low 70s in 1981, the first year measured, followed by a slow but obvious drop to its nadir during the Trump administration. The data shows plenty of peaks and valleys in between, however.

The lowest point in the index came after the “Unite the Right” rally of white supremacist groups in Charlottesville, Va., which led to a backlash against President Donald Trump after he infamously defended the participants as including “some very fine people.” High points included moments when Americans banded together amid geopolitical crises, including the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and the first Gulf War in Iraq.

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