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hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 11:17 AM Nov 2012

The Republican recession and the Democratic recovery (pre-election update)

Republicans continue to push the message that "the stimulus failed". I, being the economist that I am, continue to claim that it worked. That our current weak economy is not because the stimulus didn't work, but because we never got another round of stimulus. If you are driving up a steep hill, hit the gas and get halfway up the hill. You don't take your foot off the gas and say "well, apparently hitting the gas didn't work, we are still only partway up this hill". No a sensible person would GIVE THE CAR MORE GAS.

But if the Repiblican-controlled Congress did that, then they would not have a bad economy that they could blame on Obama, and Democrats, from now until November (okay I wrote this in June and it now IS November).

As I said first time http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002129028 , some probably will not like the word "recovery" but I would say that even with the last three months of slow job growth, that positive job growth is still positive. So here, are the updated numbers of job gains (or losses) by quarters.

First the Republican recession - a very severe one

2008
1st (93,000)
2nd (573,000)
3rd (1,002,000)
4th (1,895,000)
total (with Bush as President) (3,563,000)

2009
1st (2,258,000) note - Obama was sworn in as President and the stimulus passed in the middle of this quarter
2nd (1,433,000)
total (in Obama's first five months in office (3,691,000)

Then the Democratic recovery (starting by slowing the freefall)


3rd (780,000)
4th (310,000)
total of the last half year (1,090,000)

That the economy was no longer losing 1,000,000+ jobs every quarter is a very positive thing. The economy was in free fall and the stimulus was like a parachute. When you open a parachute, you keep falling, but at a much slower rate so that the landing does not kill you.

2010
1st +118,000
2nd +543,000
3rd (137,000)
4th +385,000
total 2010 + 909,000

2011
1st + 497,000
2nd + 290,000
3rd + 441,000
4th + 412,000
total 2011 + 1,640,000

2012
1st +677,000
2nd +199,000
3rd +522,000
October + 171,000
total 2012 (so far) +1,569,000

Amazing though, over 1.5 million jobs created so far this year, and to hear the media tell it, we are doomed, oh, the economy is so horrible. They even put this little nugget in their story, a story where they paint a gain of 80,000 jobs (in June of this year) as a negative. "And the scheduled expiration of tax cuts at year's end has increased uncertainty for U.S. companies, making many hesitant to hire."

Oh no, the "uncertainty" of the end of the Bush tax cuts on INDIVIDUALS is making COMPANIES hesitant to hire.

What that really means is that the top 1% is sorta holding the economy hostage. They won't hire unless they are assured of billions in tax cuts. And the media (which coincidentally they happen to own) is helping them to make their case.

Another point I would make is that the Government, thanks to Republican philosophies, has CUT 49,000 jobs in the last three months. If they had instead just done nothing, the economy would have gained 274,000 jobs (at least, since those extra 49,000 working people would have spent their money, further stimulating the economy). The economy runs on consumer spending and consumers are spending less. Why? I would point to at least a couple of reasons. First, political doom and gloom rhetoric does not increase confidence. Second, Republicans continue to push for cuts in Government jobs which further reduces both confidence and consumer spending. If not for the cutbacks in government spending that Republicans have been demanding, the economy would have added another 187,000 jobs over the last year (on top of the 1.76 million that it added, almost 200,000 more would have put us over 2 million as well as further stimulating consumer spending).

As these Republican candidates run around promoting a return to Reagan/Bush policies as a cure for what ails the economy, they should constantly be reminded of 2008, that the economy went down on Bush's watch. That it was Bush's leadership and Republican pokicies that created the mess we are still digging out of.

Republicans keep promising to create jobs, but insofar as they even have a plan (which often they don't http://www.democraticunderground.com/1061299) they mostly offer a continuation and expansion of the Bush policies which have already failed.

6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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The Republican recession and the Democratic recovery (pre-election update) (Original Post) hfojvt Nov 2012 OP
stil blaming Bush? hfojvt Nov 2012 #1
yeah, I am gonna kick this again hfojvt Nov 2012 #2
this truth, I would put forward hfojvt Nov 2012 #3
Real Job numbers forestguy57 Nov 2012 #4
my own claim though hfojvt Nov 2012 #5
All this gain while Republicans did their best to stand in the way. gulliver Nov 2012 #6

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
1. stil blaming Bush?
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 12:10 PM
Nov 2012

Why the heck not? Do 7 million lost jobs get regained with a snap of the fingers?

I don't see how, and we are clearly still feeling the effects of those lost jobs, we've only regained about half of them.

And that, without ANY Republican help. None of them voted for the first stimulus, other than a couple of Senators. They refuse to pass another jobs/stimulus bill that is something besides tax cuts for the rich.

It's like they burned half the city down and their rebuilding program is based on napalm.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
2. yeah, I am gonna kick this again
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:31 PM
Nov 2012

many people seem to believe, perhaps sincerely that Romney and Republicans will be better for the economy, an economy which is, admittedly, still not strong enough.

So I think more repetitions of the facts of what happened the last time Republicans were in charge, should help against that myth.

Romney and other Republicans will be no better for the economy than Bush was.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
3. this truth, I would put forward
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 02:46 AM
Nov 2012

as a reason to vote FOR Democrats. For every Democrat.

Although it also morphs into a reason to vote AGAINST Republicans

forestguy57

(4 posts)
4. Real Job numbers
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 04:59 AM
Nov 2012

First full month of Obama presidency:

Feb. 28, 2009 Non-farm jobs-132.84M.
Latest-Oct. 31, 2012 Non-farm jobs-133.76M

Net jobs under Obama-920,000.

A far cry from the 5.5 million Obama claims.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
5. my own claim though
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:51 PM
Nov 2012

is that Obama should not be blamed for the 3 million jobs LOST in his first six months, because those jobs were lost in a continuation of the recession started under Bush.

Obama is like a mayor who came in to office when half the town was already on fire, and now the Party of Arson wants to return to power because they blame this new mayor for not having rebuilt the city that they burned down.

3.7 million jobs lost in 2008 - NOT because of Obama policies, he was still running for office
4 million jobs lost in 2009 - NOT because of Obama policies, he had just gotten in office and most of his policies were barely even started.

And welcome to DU

gulliver

(13,180 posts)
6. All this gain while Republicans did their best to stand in the way.
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 01:15 PM
Nov 2012

I've never seen anything like it. Republicans have been holding the country hostage and sabotaging it openly.

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