All Operating Submarines of Russian Black Sea Fleet went to sea from Sevastopol

[Blueplanet]

This sounds very ominous!
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/13-may-all-operating-submarines-of-the-russian-black-sea
"All operating submarines of the Russian Black Sea Fleet went to sea from Sevastopol"

To those with military experience, what will it mean for Ukraine, especially Odessa?

[mopinko]

1. zero military experience, but i cant see nato sitting still for much more bullshit in the black sea.

we can send some assets in there, and sit on their asses.
obviously an escalation if we shoot at them, even in self defense, but this shit is getting serious.

[WarGamer]

2. Turkey won't let warships in.

[Trailrider1951]

30. In where? Sevastopol sits on the Black Sea Coast in Crimea

That's probably why the Russians wanted to occupy Crimea, to utilize the port there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sevastopol

[WarGamer]

31. lol... How do you get IN the Black Sea??

[Trailrider1951]

32. But they're already there. They were there before Turkey locked the Straits of Bosporus

No more can get into the Black Sea, this is true, but Turkey's decision did not remove the ones already there.

[WarGamer]

33. the post I was responding to said NATO can send assets into the Black Sea...

[Trailrider1951]

34. Oops! Sorry, I misunderstood what you meant

Blame the wine!

[WarGamer]

35. enjoy!!

[Budi]

5. It means this is all Putin's got left.

How big is this last fleet?
Whether a show of intimidation or actual force, this will be demolished like his tank brigades.

[sarisataka]

3. In the immediate future

Not very much. All 7 submarines of the fleet are of the improved Kilo class. Each can carry a handful of cruise missiles, significant but not a game changer.

Where they can be very effective is against any attempt to break the blockade of Ukrainian ports. They are ideal for operations in the Black Sea.

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. Ukraine does not have any fighting ships of significant size

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Ukrainian_Navy_ships

so I would guess this is to threaten civilian ships, and maybe sink some now, to make the blockade of Ukraine total.

Or, on the bright side, they may have decided the subs are more vulnerable in port where their position is known, than at sea.

[relayerbob]

25. No, launching cruise missiles

[NQAS]

6. Where do they go?

Not an analyst. Just looking at maps.

As another poster observed, they can’t go through the Bosporus.

The only other exit is via the Kerch strait to Mariupol, which the Russians have already destroyed, and I’m not sure if it can be transited by subs.

[relayerbob]

24. They go out, launch missiles, go back in reload

Been at it for a while

[Blueplanet]

7. Thanks!

I appreciate all of your comments. It doesn't sound very good for Ukraine. They're going to need a lot more help.

[Tetrachloride]

8. To be or not to be in a Black Sea Russian submarine,

sounds like a death wish. Ukraine would like to take those out

[Budi]

9. Yup. Is there a fine line here that would allow NATO or Ukraine allies to enter in this area?

Just asking.

[Blueplanet]

14. Good question.

But it sounds like NATO cannot do very much without escalating the situation. Ukraine has proven to be quite the warrior, but they could use more help.

[Budi]

17. Right. We know Putin was hoping to draw NATO into the Ukraine invasion.

He underestimated NATO's ability to do serious damage without ever putting their soldiers' feet on the ground.

[Blueplanet]

15. Good question.

But it sounds like NATO cannot do very much without escalating the situation. Ukraine has proven to be quite the warrior, but they could use more help.

(Sorry about the double post - don't know what happened.)

[Budi]

18. It was worth repeating.

[speak easy]

38. Turkey has subs.

[sarisataka]

21. Ukraine would like to take them out

But at sea they are all but invulnerable. Ukraine has no effective ASW assets to speak of.

[Irish_Dem]

10. There are several reasons all military craft leave a base.

I am only an USAF brat, but I grew up on overseas bases near Viet Nam during that war. My dad flew combat in three wars.

During the VN war there were several reason why all the men would fly the planes off the base. One reason is a grave potential danger to the aircraft on the base. Incoming bad weather, etc. On military bases in Viet Nam, the men would fly the aircraft out in case of imminent danger such as suspected combat hostilities increasing.

These aircraft, like submarines, are very expensive and the military moves them to safe ground if need be.

The other reason to have all the men take the aircraft out of one base to another location is if the battle is not going well, or help is needed and we needed to bomb the hell out of a site to protect the ground troops. It is kind of an all hands on deck situation.

Again I am just a military brat, maybe the active duty/retired military people have better answers.

[Blueplanet]

20. Very Interesting.

and informative.

[Irish_Dem]

26. Subs might be safer parked on the bottom of the Black Sea

rather than in open port.

They can go silent and are hard to detect on the sea bottom.

Or a group of subs with warheads on board can really tear up the nearby land.

Some of the subs have nuclear capability I imagine and this would be a huge scare tactic.

As I said, I am only an Air Force brat, but I love the navy and submarines and have read quite a bit about them.

But I could be corrected by some of the US Navy guys on the forum. Also we have a couple of submarine experts here as well. I hope they weigh in.

[Tetrachloride]

27. If we find a submariner is found, I have a question which nags me.

(not related to fighting…. just being underwater in a modern submarine)

[Irish_Dem]

28. There are some USN sub/boomer folks on this board.

I love submarine questions; I always have a lot of them.

What is your question if I may ask?

[Tetrachloride]

29. sending by DU Mail

[Historic NY]

11. Sinking unarmed merchants ships is an act of piracy

[Lovie777]

12. I read that UA's are eying Snake Island . . .

[3Hotdogs]

13. As I recall, Russia was launching missiles from a sub.

By now, U.S. satellites should be able to spot and locate subs when they surface or launch missiles. The subs will then become a target.

So........

time to get them da fuck out of there.

[Budi]

19. K & R

[NutmegYankee]

16. The Black Sea fleet is Kilo class diesel attack subs.

Not much of a threat to us.

[JHB]

22. It's probably premature, if not off the rails, to wonder this, but...

"Getting the hell out of Dodge"?

Maybe they're on an offensive operation, or maybe they're feeling that Sevastopol harbor might be a prime target for drone strikes and don't want any more high-profile embarrassments.

[relayerbob]

23. They are the ships mostly firing cruise missiles now.

The frigates that did so before are too easily spotted. This has been going on for a while now, since the loss of the Moskva.

[EndlessWire]

36. I don't know how many subs they have

but we know that they have at least one, right? I think that Ukraine should find a way to destroy that port in Sevastopol. That is where they are resupplying the subs with missiles. If they can't get resupplied, sooner or later they will be useless.

No, I don't know how they would do it. But, it's worth considering. The Russians are stupid, and they tend to line up their ships like ducks in a row. Take out the port.

But, my guess is that they are now going to fire heavily on Odesa. This was always the predicted next aggression for Russia, and not hard to see. That's their style of warfare, and that's what they have done in the past.

How is it that someone would know that all the subs left port? I doubt they have their transponders on...but is this the result of satellite surveillance, and how would any average website person know this?

[Blueplanet]

37. Take out the Port?

That would be something to witness. It would be quite the feat if Ukraine could accomplish it.

Interesting question-how would anyone know how many submarines have left the port? They can simply turn off the transponders.
I am surprised at how much information they reveal these days.

There is a wealth of good information to be found here. Thanks for your input.

[NutmegYankee]

39. Either satellite or visual reports from someone in occupied Crimea.

There was a Frenchman in WWII that seemed to be a major collaborator, but was actually sending info on German subs into and out of Lorient. Perhaps Ukraine has something similar.