Posted yesterday in a discussion in another OP. Was summarily rejected by one member.

[jaxexpat]

That rejection is, I think, the main reason it's worth repeating:

The only deterrence we have against Putin is international solidarity against Putin.

Solidarity, unfortunately, does not have a direct mechanism with which to prevent Putin deploying his nuclear weapons, the elephants in the room. The sanctions will cripple his nation. Does he care enough to let that stop him or is he really insane enough to think he can proceed indefinitely? He can't. Hopefully, his mission to obliterate the Ukraine cannot continue when his people, growing ever more resentful of their bankruptcy, see clearly through his propaganda.

When will the crisis generated by the west's sanctions reach the point where persons within his own government will act to remove him? That is the question of the moment. The question we must ask ourselves is whether we, a composite of western societies composed of crybaby capitalists and the consumers who love them, can keep our focus on international solidarity long enough to maintain the necessary pressure for these, yet unidentified, heroes to act.

The importance of our commitment is, perhaps, more clearly realized when we consider that Hitler, though there were several attempts on his life in the face of his terrible government and military losses, remained in power until the whole of Germany was devastatingly conquered by the allies. Should Putin's hold over his presidency prove as resilient as Hitler's, we will be facing a long-term standoff. Perhaps even longer than the 6 years of WWII. In that event, the Ukraine project, insofar as western strategies are concerned, will be to keep the battlefield confined to that nation's territory by providing as much aid as the Ukrainians will use. The exact particulars of that aid will fluctuate as the elephants in the room stir from time to time.

The only thing we need to know about nuclear weapons is that they must never be used. If Putin fires first, it's over. If we fire first, it's over. If we push Putin into a position where he fires first, it's over. If we become emotionally unbalanced (perhaps believing we'll survive a nuclear holocaust) and fire first, it's over. If someone accidentally fires at all, it's over.

Survivability is a non-subject. It should never be seriously considered a possibility because it's not.

[hlthe2b]

1. ...

[jaxexpat]

2. Try it again, I've never tried this before and probably did it the wrongest way there is.

[Amishman]

4. I'm not really following your main post

Are you in favor of continuing the status quo of supplying light, defensive weapons?

Or is this a statement that this strategy is too dangerous as it is applying too much pressure to Russia?

The only thing I get an a tone against further escalation.

[stopdiggin]

11. the 'unified' response has been both admirable

and remarkably effective (to this point). I'll make two further points: 1) I do not see anything that the west is doing right now as 'escalation.' If Putin sees a nuclear component to this conflict - that is clearly on him, and I don't see that as part of our moral calculus. 2) At the beginning of this conflict nobody was seriously proposing that Russia could be stopped from it's belligerent course - only that there would be a painful and significant price attached to those actions. And so it has played out.

[Sherman A1]

3. Interesting

But, a whole lot of unknowns. Time will tell for all of us. At this point I feel a very bad but limited war is preferable to the potential of a global catastrophe even if nuclear weapons are not in the mix.

[Tomconroy]

5. I hope you don't play poker.

[jaxexpat]

9. Why do you hope that?

[Tomconroy]

10. Cause Putin would bluff you out of your shorts.

[jaxexpat]

13. Your evidence that he's bluffing is....?

[Tomconroy]

14. Anybody that scared of a germ isn't going to risk something

That ends up with him dead.
Fire Jake Sullivan.

[jaxexpat]

17. I've heard the idea surfaced that....

the reason he went for the Ukraine is that he was afraid of his own people assassinating him. Thinking that a show of power, a victory, would give him some security and adulation, too.

[48656c6c6f20]

6. North Korea is the poster child for sanctions

Not working. If they had nukes that could hit the USA I am sure we would be cowering in fear to them right now. It be the Pootin and rocket man show them. Thank you sirs what else can we do for your meglomanic egos? Oh you want South Korea rocket man? Sure just don't Nuke us. Pooty you want Poland? Sure just is that a nuke in you pocket or are you just waiting to kill us?

[FreepFryer]

7. we, a composite of western societies composed of crybaby capitalists and the consumers who love them

Ok, comrade.

[3Hotdogs]

8. Yea, Russians are historically hesitant to remove their leaders.

Didn't "Nikki the K" wait for two weeks after Stalin had a stroke to decide that maybe he should seek medical help?

[harumph]

12. I absolutely agree that the value of nuclear weapons in

deterrent only, and must be avoided. I trust we would not fire first. That said, I'm confident if Putin fires one - he will fire a second one.
Russia's nuclear arsenal like most of their military has likely been shortchanged by criminal activity (we can hope).
I don't buy into you fatalism. I have children. Of course I want to live. But I won't live under global fascism.

[jaxexpat]

15. It's important for the west to win this one.

This is a test of our determination to take Putin down. The only time we've ever taken a dictator down with our own forces was Iraq, Saddam at al. Europe may not be prepared to forego Russian petroleum. Sanctions are the only tool in the kit. Really don't want nuclear devices going off anywhere. Didn't want trump elected on 2016 either.

[bluestarone]

16. I'm quite sure that our Pesident knows a lot more than we do on this subject.

I believe that there is a lot more to this than USA and Russia. What will China do once nukes fly? What would OTHER counties do? Lots on Joe's plate,so all we can do is support what ever his decision would be. ( i mean support ANY decision he makes) I honestly would like to see some pressure put on some RETHUGS that are backseat drivers (AFTER decisions are made) Take it to congress to get these ASSHOLES on record what to do!

[jaxexpat]

18. The Republicans can really screw this up for everyone.

In their single-minded task to make everything from the Democratic administration out to seem as wrong as possible they're pointing out a chink in the armor of solidarity around the administration's method. That chink, that point of potentially fatal weakness is them. The constant nitpicking and just outright lying from the rightwing propaganda machine is seen all over the world. It undermines and impacts the will of people to sacrifice in order to make the sanctions work. And sacrifice we will if we want to have any chance at defeating Putin. This is a contest of national wills. The west, mostly NATO and some nations whose economies are closely aligned with the US and the EC, will have to outlast the Russians. The question will be, which bloc can tolerate the most suffering, and which will refuse the course, demanding a reversal of their government's trajectory? Will the EC be able to assure its citizens' support when their fuel prices challenge their disposable incomes? Le Pen is hot on Macron's heels, and she will fold to Putin just like Trump. Will the US succumb to the Republican's twisted geopolitical outlook and remove our support from the Ukraine, calling Biden's economy a "Democrat" created disaster of an inflationary death spiral and "weak" foreign policy? Or will the Russian people rise up first? Or will the oligarchy finally lose patience and rid themselves of Putin?
Does the west, the US in particular, really care enough about the Ukraine to tolerate some empty shelves at the grocery and to dutifully modify their spending habits to allow higher prices for necessities? I think there's a real chance that some morons with hot-heads will try to push the US into nuclear conflict if the "sacrificing" gets too dear. We have fools in high places. What else can we expect?