Are Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election?

[brooklynite]

UVA Center for Politics

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics.

— President Biden’s numbers are weak as well. But it may be that Democrats are insulated in some ways from a potential “shellacking.”

— Democrats are very likely to lose their House majority, although their total net loss is very likely to be smaller than in some past GOP wave years simply because the Democratic majority is already so small.

— The composition of this year’s Senate map gives the Democrats a fighting chance to hold their majority there.

[Eyeball_Kid]

1. The Trump Treasonous Fallout has yet to hit the GOP.

Spring J6 hearings will begin in earnest. After the hearings, all bets are off, IMO.

Conventional "predictions" don't mean much in this political atmosphere. Yet the media, as an industry, continues to predict that downfall of the Dem majorities in the mid-terms. But there are so many factors that belie these predictions. Aside from the J6 and DOJ activities, there's also the Supreme Court's anticipated rejection of Roe v. Wade and the GOP's push to outlaw BIRTH CONTROL for unmarried women. If those items don't shake the women's vote to its core, nothing will. I'm anticipating a massive backlash against the GOP on a national level.

[Buckeyeblue]

55. I agree with you. There is a lot that's going to happen in the next few months

I think anything could happen in the midterms. Also don't forget Ukraine or eastern Europe in general. It seems like there is quite a few things that could influence the midterms that have yet to play out. Much more than usual.

[SoonerPride]

2. Yes.

It will be a huge loss.

Expect trump to be the next Speaker of The House.

Really.

[ForgedCrank]

3. That ass was poison

and is even more so now. I really don't see him getting elected to anything. And the GOP most certainly doesn't want anything to do with him being injected into congress at any level even if they do take over.
Maybe I'm being way too optimistic, but I just can't picture it happening.

[SoonerPride]

4. Just like I didn't expect him to win his party nomination after trashing McCain

I now expect THE possible worst thing to happen and sadly am very nearly never wrong

[ForgedCrank]

6. No offense intended, but

I really hope you are wrong. I don't know if I can take another term with that ass in charge of anything.
I'm so sick of him, his name, his voice, all of it. I just need for him to go away and find something else to screw up and leave us alone.

[ForgedCrank]

5. I see us losing

a lot of seats in the house, but I'm hoping for turnout to save us from losing the majority.
It is an unfortunate trend regarding mid-terms, but it's not a guarantee as far as predictions go either.
Let's hope and push, voter turnout is the key as it always is. If we can keep people engaged and convince them to show up, I think there is a chance we can save this. I also tend to be overly optimistic when it comes tot his stuff, so all I can do is hope.

[brooklynite]

16. If we lose "a lot of seats" we DO lose the majority. We can only afford to lose 4.

[Beautiful Disaster]

7. If gas price are still high? Absolutely.

In the end, Americans will vote on emotion over policy and if gas prices and inflation remain high, those emotions are going to be against the party in power, even if it's not their fault.

[calguy]

8. The more people think it's going to happen

The more likely it will happen.

[beaglelover]

9. The magic 8 ball says yes unfortunately.

High inflation certainly won’t help matters. It’s all a cycle. Sometimes you win sometimes you lose.

[maxsolomon]

10. I don't see why voters would change their party preference at this point

one party is rational but constrained by the size of its majority, the other party is utterly unhinged, obstructionist, and spouts crazy shit 24/7 at extreme volume.

I'll never understand how Americans can be such dumb flibberdigibbets.

[Polybius]

23. Because economy and war

While us political folks know Biden is great on these issues, some average folks so not.

I was in a restaurant waiting to pay, and next to me was an African American man in his 50's who happened to be watching the news. We started chatting, and he said something like "Trump was a racist, but at least the gas prices were low, inflation wasn't high, and Russia would never attack Ukraine because they'd be afraid of Trump responding with bombs in Moscow. I'm sorry I voted for Biden."

Unfortunately, I suspect that he's not alone.

[maxsolomon]

25. He's dumb AF, a flibberdigibbet,

and he's in my age cohort. I just don't get it. It makes me misanthropic, and I despair for this nation.

"Mussolini was a fascist, but the trains ran on time".

[Polybius]

27. I know a white Republican who said the same thing about NYC Mayor Eric Adams

Thinks he's biased towards whites, but loves his tough on crime approach.

[maxsolomon]

30. Adams is biased towards White People?

that's one I hadn't heard.

[Polybius]

40. IMO he isn't

But I've heard some whites say it when the "cracker" comment came out.

[rockfordfile]

43. I don't buy it

Trump is a traitor with Russia just like other republicans.

Most Americans get it that oil companies are price gouging and that oil companies are republican.

[Calista241]

57. Three things, and it's not just oil.

1. Trump isn’t on the ballot.
2. It’s not just oil. It’s milk, eggs, meat, basically all food.
3. Rent. Rent being up 50% is going to piss off a shitload of voters. And we have 7 more months of people’s income going down because rents are going up.

[Beautiful Disaster]

38. 40% of the country decides every election...

And they're not Democrats or Republicans. Many are barely checked into the political process altogether. They typically are emotional voters who vote based on how they feel at the time. That's why they're called swing voters. They probably voted Obama in 2008, a mix of Romney and Obama in 2012, many voted Trump in 2016 and then many voted Biden in 2020.

It's not the partisans who decide elections. Democrats will make up about 30% of the vote, and they'll almost certainly vote Democratic, Republicans will make up another 30% and then you'll have the other 40% who vote on a whim.

It can help Democrats (see: 2018, 2020) but also hurt them.

Unfortunately, these voters care less about the issues and more about the vibe.

If gas prices are high? They're likely to vote Republican only because they're emotionally angry at the party in power.

Emotion is difficult to reason with.

You can try to explain all the reasons why gas prices are high but none of that matters. It'll just seem like excuses.

Just like in 2008 with Bush and McCain.

It's a sucky dynamic of American politics where a good chunk of the population barely pays attention to what is happening and therefore, only votes based on their pocket book.

[maxsolomon]

39. yes, and the vast majority of that 40%

don't even bother to vote.

as I said, flibberdigibbets.

[uponit7771]

80. It's not that the DNC has to stoke votes from CoC instead of going after the mostly white middle ...

... if we can do that a la Stacy Abrams style we win.

[jalan48]

11. Without the passage of the voting rights act I don't see how we can maintain our current position

or add to it.

[angue]

12. We will lose the House this year and the Senate in 2024 (or possibly this year)

Next question please.

[AZLD4Candidate]

37. Really. Nice right wing talking point.

[greenjar_01]

13. Does this poster ever post positive news about Democrats?

Like, I mean, ever?

[brooklynite]

17. Why, yes I do.

What I don't do is live in a good news bubble. Understanding political reality is a good starting point to changing it.

[Torchlight]

18. It's a good line to use

[greenjar_01]

26. Riiiiiight

[AZLD4Candidate]

42. Is there a reason you are being so aggressive?

[Act_of_Reparation]

68. Some people deal with the harshness of reality by denying it entirely.

It's not uncommon around here. Quite a few posters have long asserted that just talking about the shortcomings of our party dooms us to failure.

[treestar]

65. No

[bigtree]

14. this article cites "Chuck Todd & Mark Murray of NBC News" for anything current backing up this joke

...of an analysis.

The rest is falderal the author gleans from standard history about parties in power in the WH traditionally losing ground in Congress in midterms.

Here's the meat of his conclusion about 2022:

"There appears to be a growing consensus among pundits and political observers that Democrats are likely to experience a shellacking in the 2022 midterm elections, especially in the House of Representatives. According to observers such as Chuck Todd and Mark Murray of NBC News, a number of indicators are now pointing toward major losses for Democrats, especially President Biden’s poor approval rating and the large proportion of Americans who believe that the country is currently on the wrong track or headed in the wrong direction."

"There appears to be a growing consensus among pundits and political observers..." Then he cites Chuck fucking Todd.

Trash this.

[brooklynite]

19. And your analysis of the election is...?

[Bettie]

58. Apparently Chuck Todd is now

the oracle and we must bow down to his predictions.

I guess if the "connected" people who know all say we've already lost, there's no point in even voting.

But Chuck Todd? Really?

[blueinredohio]

15. Imo, they are unless they get their ass moving

on referring republicans (Trump and co.) for prosecution.

[Polybius]

20. I we HAVE to lose one, I'd rather lose the House than the Senate

At least with the Senate, we can still vote on Biden's Judges.

[uponit7771]

21. 538 and RCP ***GENERIC BALLOT*** only has dems down by 2.5% avg We have a chance with

... better brute force voting (GOTv) and the challenge for dems is communicating to CoC

[tritsofme]

22. That's worse than it might sound.

Democrats were +7 in the RCP generic ballot average going into 2020, and we barely won the majority.

A tied or even small Democratic edge in the generic ballot typically indicates a GOP majority…a lead is not good news.

[Polybius]

24. Down 2.5 is horrible for two reasons:

1: We need to be up by 5 to even break even, due to gerrymandering. See 2020's polls.

2: They are extremely motivated to vote. If the polls say 2.5, they win by 8-10.

[a kennedy]

32. Gerrymandering will be a huge reason Democrats will lose, and all the new and horrible voting

restrictions. Ya, I think the Dems are in big trouble.

[uponit7771]

35. Gerrymandering didn't work out so well for MAGA this go around but they still have a 1 or 2 distric

... advantage IINM

[bigtree]

61. not so fast

How Democrats may actually pull off a *major* redistricting upset

(CNN)Conventional wisdom heading into this year was that Republicans would benefit mightily from the decennial congressional line-drawing process, carving up districts and creating a decidedly friendly national map.
But as states rush to finish their House maps in advance of the rapidly approaching 2022 primary season, a new storyline has emerged: Democrats could well break even or possibly gain an advantage when all of the new lines are finished across the country.

Two recent developments are key to that sea change:

1) New York Democrats unveiled a congressional map that would take the current delegation of 19 Democrats and 8 Republicans and potentially turn it into a 22-4 split. (The state is losing a seat.) It is "the largest single-state shift in the country," according to Cook Political Report House editor David Wasserman.

2) Pennsylvania's Supreme Court, where Democrats hold a majority, took control of drawing the state's lines, after the Democratic governor and the Republican-controlled legislature deadlocked on a map that must reduce the state's House delegation from 18 seats to 17 seats.

FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich noted in the wake of the unveiling of the New York map:

"I had previously calculated that redistricting alone would hand Republicans two new House seats (give or take) in the 2022 midterms, while Democrats would roughly stand pat. (This is before accounting for the likely Republican-leaning national political environment.) Add this map to the mix, though, and Democrats would be poised to gain about three seats nationally and Republicans would be poised to lose around two."

This is all just the latest in a string of positive redistricting developments for Democrats, including recent court rulings in Alabama and Ohio that have favored the party.

As Wasserman wrote: "For the first time, Dems have taken the lead on the Cook Political Report's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones."

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/03/politics/democrats-redistricting-map-advantage/index.html

[a kennedy]

62. This is very good news indeed........

[Zeitghost]

85. Gerrymandering has been happening on both sides

The last two House election cycles gave the Republicans a ~1-2 seats they should mathematically not had and recent redistricting should swing that edge back our way. It's a horrible practice in my opinion, leading to more extremists getting elected (like getting Nunes and McCarthy in CA because they have packed conservatives into a few districts) but on the national level it's basically a wash when it comes to congressional seats.

[uponit7771]

34. Both true, dems have time to stoke and organize brute force voting by Nov. It's a matter of

... will at this point imho, CoC are still untapped to this day especially in So Florida and Texas.

If we were down by five I'd be biting all my nails ... even more.

[Celerity]

75. the generic ballot is pretty much useless as our voters are concentrated far more than the Rethug's

are geographically and district-wise. We have huge amounts rammed into giant urban areas and massive (pops -wise) Blue states. We have far more deep Blue districts that account for a huge amount of population than they do. We are 'kettled', with so much overkill numbers. The Rethugs have gamed the system over the past 4, 5 decades. That is why, at POTUS level, you could have flipped just 21,461 votes spread out over 3 states (WI, AZ, GA) from Blue to Red and Trump would have won, despite losing the popular vote by 7 million plus.

[uponit7771]

79. True, but redistricting didn't work out for the win the GZP thought it would so in the house ...

... we still have a chance.

The GOTv ground game will be pivotal this year, if the DNC doesn't make heavy investments in communities of color CoC al la Stacy Abrams style we will NO DOUBT be hurting as a nation.

[Celerity]

83. there're still 4 states whose maps are not done yet, so we cannot make a final call on who nets what

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2022/congressional-redistricting-maps-by-state-and-district/



The Rethugs are a +4 net gain so far, when most said they would gain a net 6 to 10 or so.






I will be blunt. I am getting very worried over the Hispanic (especially males and on college educated of all genders) and Under 40yo vote. Biden is disastrously underwater in multiple decent polls. Even with the A-A vote, in some polls he is down 15, 20 or more points from the election (driven by males again).

Just saw a segment on MSNBC where Eugene Daniels said Biden's head campaign pollster, John Anzalone was talking about how it is such a poison environment for Dems. He indirectly did go off on Manchin and Sinema at least and offered ways we claw back.



Biden’s pollster: 2022 is ‘worst political environment’ of my lifetime and the recipe for how to ‘not get our a---- kicked’ in the midterms

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3Ap2KLZmOH0yQ4TU7OoXER

Mentioned in the show:

Ruy Teixeira’s Substack post on why Democratic struggles in Nevada can be found here.

If you want to understand the recent defeats that Democrats have faced in Virginia, check out this research memo from Anzalone’s colleague Brian Stryker.

Ryan Lizza: Let’s just start off with how bad are things for Democrats this year and what can they do about it?

John Anzalone: I think what we’re missing right now is that voters are very much in “What have you done for me lately?” They always are. And they don’t feel Democrats can get their shit together and get things done.

So if we’re able to do something — a skinny BBB or whatever — on health insurance costs, prescription drug costs, elderly care, childcare, that’s a big deal because it will give Democrats a competitive advantage on what they’re doing for working families. And it’ll cut through the inflation narrative, the Ukraine narrative, the Afghan narrative, the border narrative, et cetera. Right now, we don’t see that and we don’t have that.

No one’s going to sit there as a Democratic consultant and try to bullshit you that this is anything but a really sour environment for Democrats. So we better look at the strategic ways that we can compete, right? Just compete to not get our asses kicked. Most Americans are pissed at the fact that they pay their fair share in taxes as middle-class people. They work hard. They want to see the benefits of the economy. They’re getting raises. Yes, inflation’s eating it up, but I’ll tell you what they’re pissed about: … They see these big companies not paying any taxes. And Biden’s proposal of making those making over $400,000 pay a little bit more taxes and big corporations pay a little bit more taxes so they pay their fair share to make investments in healthcare and education and childcare is really important.

Lizza: Would you dial up nationally with the populism?

Anzalone: I would so dial up.

Lizza: Just from a messaging point of view?

Anzalone: Yes. We’re scared of our own shadow on taxes and it … makes no sense. … Listen, people do not begrudge people making a lot of money and getting wealthy. People have a problem and are pissed off about them not paying any taxes. Why, as a party, we don’t elevate that in our messaging and contrast messaging is beyond me. This is not a Biden problem, by the way: Joe Biden has been doing this for three years. This is a congressional Democrat problem — [people] who shy away from this because they think that they’re going to get hit on taxes. Guess fucking what? You’re going to get hit on taxes anyway … so control the narrative. …

snip

Lizza: Are we seeing racial groups that have a history of voting strongly for Democrats starting to polarize along education lines the same way that white voters have been? And that working-class Latinos, African Americans are?

Anzalone: In our data, it doesn’t matter where we are. It really has more to do with male and female. There’s a huge divide where Latinos are voting or say they’re going to vote, whether you’re a male Latino or a you’re a female Latino.

Lizza: So the Democratic problem was with male Latinos specifically?

Anzalone: Yes. You’re right. And any of our bleed is younger male African Americans. We saw that in 2020 as well. So whether you’re looking at white voters or Latino voters or black voters, quite frankly, you’re seeing a gender difference. And then you’ll see, of course, a college-educated difference, as well. I mean, we do better with college-educated men than non-college-educated men in any of that group. But the male-female split within Latinos is pretty significant.

Lizza: When you do focus groups and really sort of get under the hood of that issue, what are you learning?

Anzalone: I think the myth that always needs to be broken among Latinos and African Americans, is that I think that a lot of time, there’s this narrative in D.C. among Democrats that you only talk to Latinos about immigration. Like, immigration is the 12th issue that they’re concerned about. It’s always about the economy or inflation or healthcare or schools. Without a doubt, things like housing and crime tend to be higher among African Americans and Latinos, as well. So there are specific issues that you want to do. But again, in turn you’ve got to understand whatever each voter is going through in their personal lives. Their attention tends to be on those things that white voters put a priority on as well.

[Beaverhausen]

28. Between these draconian abortion laws and restrictive voter rights laws I'm hoping that we keep both

I think a lot of moderate voters won't put up with the maga/fascist crap that is happening in many states.

We have to fight but I don't think our losing the house and senate is a foregone conclusion.

[DFW]

29. Larry Sabato again

He usually is very reserved when making any kind of prognosis that favors us. He may not be the author of this article, but I'm sure he had plenty of input and did some of the editing.

[llashram]

31. all this

and I see the loser comments here as self-defeating and as wrong!!! The American voter is an unpredictable bunch. Hell stupid ass trump got many votes and look at us now. I hope, even with Republikkkan anti-voting measures, that we stand up to the pro-putin bunch and send them packing.

I just have a hope that we prove something this mid-term in spite of a bought off MSM in this country. Free press my ass. Still a free people-voter? Yes.

[Emile]

33. The Predatory Capitalists are doing their part!

[Autumn]

36. Inflation and gas prices are hitting people hard. I don't expect to hold on to our majorities.

[bigtree]

60. when those gas prices ease, as predicted, what will be the concern?

...food prices?

Those two are highly manipulative, and expected to improve greatly over the summer.

Besides, wage gains have made these increases sustainable for most Americans, and although lower income folks suffer more (and always have) the burden of inflation is just anecdotal, not actually impacting spending for most Americans.

Moreover, gas and food prices always eventually adjust to what consumers can bear. That conventional wisdom has been replaced with this hyper fear of inflation spurred by the media who know better.

Link to tweet

[Autumn]

64. No matter what, as DU's beloved Carville said "The economy, stupid".

I don't know who that Rosenberg is but IMO he's full of shit. no way my grocery bill has gone up only $2.80. Guys twisting faster than a tornado. I don't see the oil companies bring down the price of fuel by all that much.

[Celerity]

74. We also are in real trouble with Hispanics and younger voters.

Look at the newest Quinnipiac poll

Biden is polling at 24 per cent approval versus 54 per cent disapproval amongst Hispanics.

With 18-34yo's he is at 21 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval.

His numbers amongst black voters are at 62 per cent approval, which is down over 20 points since the election.


https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3843

Sample and Methodology

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us04132022_demos_upip76.pdf

This RDD telephone survey was conducted from April 07 – 11, 2022 throughout the nation.
Responses are reported for 1,412 adults with a margin of sampling error of +/- 2.6
percentage points. The survey includes 1,256 self-identified registered voters with a
margin of sampling error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Margins of sampling error for
subgroups are available upon request.
Surveys are conducted with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Data collection support provided by Dynata. All data was managed and tabulated by the
Quinnipiac University Poll.

snip

Dual frame landline and cell phone samples are generated using Random Digit Dialing
procedures by Dynata. Both the landline and cellular phone samples are stratified by
Census division according to area code.
Landline numbers and cell phone numbers are scheduled for 4+ call attempts. When calling
landlines interviewers ask to speak with the adult member of the household having the
next birthday. Interviews are conducted on cell phones with both cell only and dual owner
respondents. The complete land and cell sample is weighted to National Health Interview
Survey estimates for [land only/cell only/dual owner] households.

Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a
subset of the sample, a descriptive note is added in parentheses preceding the question.
Questions are numbered as asked with additional questions found in successive releases.
This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey
sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey
participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to
recent Census data using a sample balancing procedure to match the demographic makeup of
the population by region, gender, age, education and race. When including the design
effect, the margin of sampling error for this study of adults is +/- 3.3 percentage
points.

Polls are funded entirely by Quinnipiac University. The Quinnipiac University Poll is
part of the Office of Marketing and Communications.
Contact [email protected] for additional information or call 203-582-5201.

[Autumn]

81. That's about right.

[Celerity]

84. hopefully it is somewhat of an outlier

[Autumn]

82. That's about right.

[lees1975]

41. We just continue to assume this is going to happen because it always does

so what is being done to prevent it?

I'm....
voting
blogging
joining GOTV efforts
contributing as much as I can afford
posting on social media and not getting as much blowback as I expected.

The GOP has a massive amount of Pro-Putin garbage from before the war. That's a gold mine for voter turnout. So is January 6th. But some Democrats somewhere have to get up off their ass and do something with it.

[Emile]

44. Inflation started shortly after President Biden starting pushing green energy

and electric automobiles. Time to nationalize big oil who started this inflation.

[betsuni]

45. You're blaming Biden?

[Emile]

46. Why are you saying that? Clearly I'm blaming big oil!

[betsuni]

47. Nationalize big oil? What?

[Emile]

48. Minute ago you were asking if I was blaming Biden, now it's the word nationalize, what?

[betsuni]

49. "Inflation started shortly after President Biden started pushing green energy"

"Time to nationalize big oil."

[Emile]

50. I agree! It's refreshing having someone to agree with!

[betsuni]

51. Quoting someone isn't agreeing with them, obviously.

[Emile]

52. Clearly we both know whats going on here and it's not working!

[CrackityJones75]

53. Why is this post still here?

Back in the day this post would have been removed.

This post serves no purpose at all but to destroy any type of enthusiasm.

[Emile]

54. Probably because some democrats are concerned

and are looking for a good defense? Just a guess.

[treestar]

67. They need to try something different

The concern is noted. So why aren’t the suggesting what to do ?

[Emile]

70. Probably because some people are too busy complaining?

[SmallFry]

56. From my reading of the room....

There are certain political conversations that can’t really be held in honest here. It’s one of the most negative manifestations of the internet and is a major driver in damaging this country. There have been lots of studies done on the echo chamber aspect of the internet.

We are in one of the worst electoral positions I’ve seen in my lifetime. This isn’t going to be ok. What’s worse, when it happens, it will be at a time inflation is slowly brought back under control. Perception wise it’s as bad as it gets.

[bigtree]

59. you shouldn't begin those conversations with a weakly supported article on the internet

...that does little but cite numbers from 2018 and beyond, then loosely quotes Chuck Todd to flesh out the anti-Democratic lede.

Repeating this Democratic depressing chatter without pointing to actual races is the worst of political prognostication. It's amazing how this conversation about 'Dems in trouble' views republican dishonesty and depravity as some sort of political strength. That deliberate depressive nonsense has become a mantra for some.

Trashing Democrats' chances in the midterms anecdotally is just trashing Democrats, no matter how much people couch it in concern.

[SmallFry]

63. One persons trashing is another persons reality.

Your exact post can be found on discussion board after discussion board, regardless of ideology.

[brooklynite]

78. from President Biden's own pollster:

John Anzalone: I think what we’re missing right now is that voters are very much in “What have you done for me lately?” They always are. And they don’t feel Democrats can get their shit together and get things done.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/15/bidens-pollster-midterms-00025482

Ignoring reality may make you feel better but it doesn't prepare you for responding to what reality will bring.

[treestar]

66. Why do this?

It is disheartening.

Republicans NEVER do this.

Why do we always do this ? It’s stupid. We want to win! We need more D senators. We need to act like we did in 2018. Why aren’t we.

The thing about the presidents party is not a law of physics. It does not have to happen and is no excuse for giving up. Why do we give up so easily? Why do these posts get made so often. Why? Try something different this time !

[Polybius]

69. It doesn't have to happen if the President is popular

In 2002 Republicans picked up seats, because Bush was still fairly popular at that point in time.

[budkin]

72. And because they successfully labeled Democrats as "Muslim sympethizers"

Remember what they did to war hero Max Cleland?

[Polybius]

86. Yeah, I've always said that negative ads work

Do you think we'll do it this election? Will it work if Biden's approval remains the same as it is now?

[budkin]

71. Unless killing Roe creates a massive backlash... then absolutely

I'm hoping it wakes people up but I'm not holding my breath.

[liberalmediaaddict]

73. It will probably happen

And then voters will quickly realize that putting Republicans in charge of Congress did nothing to lower inflation, gas prices or stop Putin.

[betsuni]

76. Yes, but they won't blame Republicans because Democrats are the government party and

Americans blame government for everything but when Republicans are in charge of government it doesn't count, same as anti-Democratic attacks from non-right-wing directions calling Democrats corrupt corporate elite establishment.

[Dial H For Hero]

77. If inflation doesn't ease substantially, yes.

It’s the number one issue for many undecideds.