A retired Russian general's criticism may signal a larger problem for Putin

[left-of-center2012]

Retired Russian Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, the head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, has gone public with a statement that calls for Russian President Vladimir Putin to resign over the confrontation involving Ukraine. To remove any doubt as to his message, Ivashov, 78, followed the public statement with an interview on a liberal Russian media outlet, Echo Moskvy, insisting that he was speaking in the name of the assembly of retired and reservist Russian officers which he heads.

In the absence of an active marshal of the army — such as Marshal Georgy Zhukov, the celebrated Red Army general of World War II — a colonel-general would be the second-highest rank in the Russian army. Ivashov served as a senior aide to the country’s defense minister and as the ministry’s chief of general affairs before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991; he subsequently held other high-ranking military posts and commands before retiring

As Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, tweeted: “This is a big deal. At one time, General Ivashov was one of the most respected (and hawkish) leaders in the Russian [ministry of defense]. Russian generals don’t usually get involved in public policy debates, especially ones like Ivashov.”

Under Putin, Russia has become an international “pariah,” he says. Its annexation of Crimea is not recognized by credible nations, and Russia is widely viewed as a rogue state because of Putin’s “criminal policy of provoking war.” The massive buildup of Russian troops on the Ukraine and Belarus borders is not to deal with a threat from the West. Rather, it is to divert attention from the internal health, demographic challenges, living-standards collapse and pervasive corruption that the Russian citizenry is suffering under the mismanagement of an incompetent Putin regime.

Adding to Ivashov’s concerns is his fear that Turkey could join with Ukraine in a military alliance if war does break out. That, of course, would be an entirely different ball game for the Russians to confront.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/593880-a-retired-russian-generals-criticism-may-signal-a-larger-problem-for

[Alice Kramden]

1. K&R n/t

[BSdetect]

2. This is quite amazing. Not likely putin will be pleased.

Looks like there is a real threat to putin happening.

[Sherman A1]

6. One hopes that the General

has his affairs in order. Putin and his playmates will not appreciate his comments as you indicate.

[modrepub]

9. For Most Dictators

You have absolute control, until you don't.

One never knows when an assassination/jailing will become a bridge too far. Me thinks this officer has a much better of the internal goings on in Russia than our best intelligence officers.

[Firestorm49]

27. In the back of my mind I have a feeling that Putin just wants to know how far he can push this

new administration. Or, he already knows our limitations due to our former traitor President, who very well may have passed on our military vulnerabilities to Russia. Either way, if the good old U S of A can create the same kind of internal discord in Russia that Putin has propagated here, we will have a more level playing field. Then, God willing, we may see another collapse of a tyrant regime and show the world that democracy is still preferred over authoritarianism.

Or……..I’m nuts and need to have another cup of coffee.

Ciao

[orangecrush]

56. Nailed it.

[COL Mustard]

15. And that he stays away from windows.

Or off roofs.

[irisblue]

17. Samovars with Polonium-210 are a known thing in Russia. On Putins' orders in 2006

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexander_Litvinenko

[paleotn]

16. Yep, but I'm sure the general knows the risks.

A very courageous individual. And he's right. Russia is basket case under Putin.

[robbedvoter]

3. Zukov was the character played by Jason Isaaks in The Death of Stalin

Ivashov talks about Ukraine being a sovereign state and this attack being just for Putin's ambitions not the good of Russia. https://www.justsecurity.org/80149/retired-russian-generals-criticize-putin-over-ukraine-renew-call-for-his-resignation/

NATO forces are not growing and do not pursue any threatening activity, goes the argument in Ivashov’s statement.

Therefore, the rationale for the military escalation around Ukraine is artificial and self-serving only for Putin rather than serving a greater good for Russia. As a consequence of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine became an independent state, a member of the United Nations, entitled to individual and collective defense, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, Ivashov continues.

[BootinUp]

44. +1

[MarineCombatEngineer]

45. Great movie, and somewhat accurate,

with some dark comedy thrown in.

[DENVERPOPS]

47. Hey MCE

how the hell you doing??????????

Stay safe and stay well !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[MarineCombatEngineer]

48. Doing real good, both of my trucks are making money,

I'm on my 34 hour reset right now, just enjoying life and all it has to offer.

Hope everything is hunky dorey with you and your family.
You stay safe and well also.

[DENVERPOPS]

61. Thx MCE

right back at you!

[Lovie777]

4. I think Putin's Russia want to be a member of Nato . . .

seriously.

[left-of-center2012]

5. Seriously ?

Uh, no

[paleotn]

18. Putin wants to thieve and enrich himself and his buddies. Not much more.

Hard to do that as a NATO member, unless you live in a place as strategically valuable as Turkey.

[quakerboy]

69. I dunno. Shrub managed it alright

Trump, so far at least, has gotten away with it. Erdoğan. Boris Johnson. Duda. Im sure we could name others current and over the past 20 or so years.

[3Hotdogs]

7. Hey Leonid,

Don't be drinking any tea.

[dchill]

11. And beware of guys with umbrellas.

[SheltieLover]

13. And stay away from windows & stairs

[dchill]

22. Definitely.

[Brainfodder]

53. ...and women 50+ years your junior who suddenly appear with bedroom eyes?

...or men if that is your thing, no judgement.

[orangecrush]

57. ....

[bdamomma]

54. yeah

for sure,

[randr]

8. Just as we must be supporting Ukrainian independence

we should be supporting the Russian peoples path to freedom and release from the Putin Kleptocracy.
This is a very important issue at this point of human history.
We could very well tip into a horrible conflict involving many nations in the human struggle for self rule and the end of autocratic systems of rule.

[BlueIdaho]

51. X 1000

Recent massive demonstrations across Russia have shown that not is is well there. Maybe Putin and his oligarchs have finally pissed off the wrong Russians.

[I_UndergroundPanther]

70. After putins ass is gone

We need to shut down our own homegrown autocrats.

[FM123]

10. Very interesting. Putin can not be happy about his speaking out.

This general had better be careful or he will "accidentally" fall out of a window or poison himself.....

[smirkymonkey]

50. I would like to think he has anticipated that possibility and may know something we don't.

Such as the fact that Putin is not the all-powerful, mastermind, genius that Russian propaganda has led the rest of the world to believe about him. I think his days are numbered. His ego and his ruthlessness are not enough to compensate for the fact that he is a very poor leader and his weaknesses will be eventually be exposed to the world, further undermining his power.

There was an article by Julia Ioffe in The Atlantic a few years ago about Putin that was very interesting, suggesting that he wasn't as powerful as his projected image. One quote:

"But most Russians don’t recognize the Russia portrayed in this story: powerful, organized, and led by an omniscient, omnipotent leader who is able to both formulate and execute a complex and highly detailed plot.

Gleb Pavlovsky, a political consultant who helped Putin win his first presidential campaign, in 2000, and served as a Kremlin adviser until 2011, simply laughed when I asked him about Putin’s role in Donald Trump’s election. “We did an amazing job in the first decade of Putin’s rule of creating the illusion that Putin controls everything in Russia,” he said. “Now it’s just funny” how much Americans attribute to him."

It's a good article, even though it is a bit dated. Still worth a read. In some ways, Putin is like Trump, just a bit smarter and much richer. Not all that competent or respected, but without morals and still able to frighten people into submission.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/01/putins-game/546548/

Not that Putin and Russia aren't a threat, but they may not be as frightening as they appear.

[Ford_Prefect]

58. One reason so many expat Russian rich have moved to Florida is the home like feeling

of having a political clown in charge who toadies for the ultra-rich, and keeps the lesser classes in line.

[dmr]

67. Thank you for the link

I was going to search for it.

[FM123]

68. Thanks for the link!

Always great writing there at the Atlantic!

[secondwind]

12. This may give Putin food for thought... a whole 'nother ball game now.

Wonder what will happen next........

[SheltieLover]

14. So glad he spoke out!

He is right, of course. Tfg tried everything to give putin a voice on the world stage. Thankfully, to no avail.

[bigtree]

19. this is what Putin will reap from attacking Ukraine

...

"Under Putin, Russia has become an international “pariah,” he says. Its annexation of Crimea is not recognized by credible nations, and Russia is widely viewed as a rogue state because of Putin’s “criminal policy of provoking war.”

[Farmer-Rick]

20. So the Russian people are really suffering under Kim Jong....

I mean shorty Putin.

"living-standards collapse and pervasive corruption"

The living standard collapse is dire. I wonder how many Russians have died because of COVID. You know Putin was never going to spend money to get Russians vaccinated. He probably just pushes that anti-vaxxer propaganda on Russians as well as Americans. That way he can do nothing, like TFG did nothing, and save the money for his palaces or his mistresses' clothes.

This maybe the straw that broke the camel's back for the Russian people. When things get so dire, people don't care if they die. And the Russian people are know to revolt. But looking at how long they had a feudal system, they are more patient then some populations.

Sorry to hear about how poorly the Russian people are doing.

[L. Coyote]

21. Not a very good analysis for an economist who knows about Russia's oil and gas dependence.

Last edited Sun Feb 13, 2022, 01:52 PM - Edit history (2)

Putin has already accomplished his goal, raising the price of oil, the lifeblood of the Russian government and his personal wealth, to 20% higher than a year ago, a positive for Russia and a negative economic impact on the West and on liberal democratic leaders politically.

Starting a war would ruin Russia's economy and freeze a lot of oligarch assets in the west, likely including some of Putin's personal wealth, and might even result in Putin's political demise. Taking the world to what seems to be the brink of war only makes Pution and Russia a lot richer and helps him politically. Admitting this equation of course is admitting Putin has the power to exert significant impact on the global economy, so no surprise that it isn't part of the headlines and generally not mentioned, as we see here.

How do we know that the generals and Putin aren't just reading from the same script? The general is reinforing the idea that Putin might start a war. That just keeps the price of oil climbing.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[BootinUp]

49. Not sure I buy that the Generals statement ratchets

things up relative to current ratchet setting. More like a counterweight.

[eppur_se_muova]

23. There's "a liberal Russian media outlet" ??? Putin must be slipping.

They'll all be dead or in jail within months.

[wnylib]

42. Had me wondering, too.

[Historic NY]

24. How long before he falls out of a window or is poisoned? Rise up remove Putin.

[dalton99a]

25. NEXT: Retired Russian general killed in test flight

from window

[nvme]

41. Yup or a plutonium leak in his building

[TygrBright]

26. Dude, do NOT go near any windows higher than ground level. n/t

[Harker]

28. Tea time. n/t

[multigraincracker]

29. I can't read tea leafs, but

I would not wager on putins future at the moment. Big gamble for Puttie.

[usonian]

30. I saw that article.

The author is a "fellow" (how appropriate a term) of the Hoover Institute.

IMNSHO, that's a warning label. And maybe the point is that Putin is not nationalistic enough for the old crows.

Perhaps he (and Xi) terribly botched the response to covid, and who knows what other internal failures that we don't know.

DISCLAIMER: I have no classified recon, nor would I hoard it.

[calimary]

37. Welcome to DU, usonian!

Hoover Institute. Isn't that a conservative think-tank (hidey hole)?

[WinstonSmith4740]

31. This is huge.

Remember this? https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/coup-attempt-against-gorbachev-collapses

The generals made the wrong move in trying to depose Gorbachev. The people took to the streets, and backed them down. They had tasted freedom, and weren't going back. Some generals committed suicide in the aftermath.

This is the right move. I still think this is a test by Putin to check our resolve, & our committment to NATO. I mean, the Irish fisherman already backed him down.

Putin has brought corruption to Seussian levels, the Russian economy is a mess, any benefits from being a "capitalist" system is concentrated in the hands of the oligarchs, & Covid is probably running wild. The Ukrainians are not going to roll over, and when body bogs start coming back from the front, it will not bode well. He can try to shut down the media, but even with that, he won't be able to hide it. If the military turns on him, and it sounds like they are, he's done.

And I'm sure the general wil be brewing his tea himself. He knows how the game is played.

[calimary]

38. The Irish fishermen!

I took a quote from one of them for our Indivisible Call to Action email's "quote of the week" - for THIS coming week:

“Y’know, from small acorns big trees grow!”
Patrick Murphy, Irish South & West Fish Producers organization; after Irish fishermen stared down Vladimir Putin’s planned naval war games in Irish fishing grounds, sending the Russian fleet away from the fishing grounds, and farther out into deeper waters, 2-1-22

Words to the wise, WELL worth remembering, seems to me.

[Martin Eden]

32. Wow!

Does Ivashov think Putin can't touch him?

[oasis]

33. K and R

[Irish_Dem]

34. Wow. Amazing.

He is risking his life to speak out.

In the US, retired generals often speak out for active duty officers who cannot talk publicly against a commander in chief. So I am assuming the same thing in Russia.

This could mean there is division in military support for Putin.

Thank you Sheltie for posting this for me, I missed it.

[Marcuse]

35. At 78 years old the general seems to have run out of fucks.

[AntiFascist]

36. I can see why Putin needs to ally with China...

Siberia may be his Achilles' heel.

[roamer65]

62. China would love to have Siberia.

All the oil, gas and metal and mineral deposits.

PLUS…room for northward migration of the Chinese population when climate change gets much worse.

[nvme]

39. He will likely pass away within the next 2 mos.

Critics have a short lifespan under the Putin reign.

[moondust]

40. Watch your underwear, General.

"The Underwear Poisoner" ain't gonna like that.

[BootinUp]

43. This man needs a security force. nt

[Loki]

46. I hope he lives on the first floor.

We really need more reporting like this. All is not peaches and cream inside mother Russia, and broadcasting this would weaken Putin at home.

[czarjak]

52. Putin's plotting will be his undoing.

[Joinfortmill]

55. It seems Putin has more problems at home than he may have realized.

That's good for the rest of us.

[bdamomma]

60. but

Putin does not care about his Russian comrades, and Putin wants to break apart the US, that is his way of saying that Democracy is too messy.

[Ford_Prefect]

59. I think we should pay attention to the possibility of Turkey becoming involved.

Russians like Ivashov don't bluff, it's not their thing at all.

The risk Ivashov takes here is not that he'll be disappeared but that Putin will indeed do the wrong thing. I doubt this is aimed at Putin but rather at Vlad's patrons who wield the real powers in Russia. The one thing they want is an un-complicated market for Russian oil & gas.

[roamer65]

64. Smells to me like a signal from the military that a coup d'etat is a possibility.

[RockRaven]

65. This is interesting. Wow. Hmm.....

Also, this guy is in fucking danger. Heart attack, fall down the stairs or out the window, car crash, etc.

[moondust]

66. "divert attention

from the internal health, demographic challenges, living-standards collapse and pervasive corruption that the Russian citizenry is suffering under the mismanagement of an incompetent Putin regime."

I'd guess that many Russians have gradually learned from Russian-speaking Ukrainians and others what life is like outside Putin's oligarchy/kleptocracy: Health care, decent living standards, free speech, free press, uncensored internet, free elections, etc. Ukrainians like it and are ready to defend it. Putin may be afraid informed Russians could find a way to dump him and his gang for a better life. He may think that by taking over Ukraine he'll be able to put a stop to much of the "threatening" flow of information into Russia.

[themaguffin]

71. He better think twice about his next cup of tea.