Opinion: Surprisingly, there has been a redistricting turnaround

[LetMyPeopleVote]

Gerrymandering has limits. The GOP gerrymandered the heck out of the country in 2010 and there is only so much more that the GOP can squeeze now due to past successes.

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Just in the past few days, the conventional wisdom on redistricting has undergone a dramatic shift. The most informed redistricting experts now say it appears that this process will look more like a wash, or even that Democrats might gain a few seats.

How did this happen? Here are the key factors:

Republicans had already gerrymandered so aggressively in the post-2010 redistricting that they had limited room to add to their advantage.

In the relatively small number of states where they had the opportunity, Democrats are gerrymandering with equal vigor.

In some places, Republicans opted to consolidate their current position rather than take a riskier path that might expand their seats.
Independent redistricting commissions wound up not hurting Democrats in the way some feared they would.

Look at the two largest states. If all you knew was that the GOP legislature controls redistricting in red Texas while in blue California the process is run by an independent commission, you might expect a huge net gain for Republicans. But that’s not how it worked out.

Texas is a good example. The GOP gerrymandered the heck out of Texas in 2010 and now the Texas GOP is focused on perserving their seats and not in expanding their majorities

In Texas, Republicans chose to lock in their current advantage rather than expand it, a decision driven by the way the state is trending in a more Democratic direction. Currently there are 23 Republicans and 13 Democrats in Texas’s U.S. House delegation. Above all, the legislature made sure there would be almost no competitive districts in the future. So the new map will have 24 safe Republican seats, 13 safe Democratic ones and one competitive district (which Republicans might win).

Which means Republicans will gain only one or two seats in Texas — the smart move in the long run but not something that ensures victory in 2022 or 2024.

[hlthe2b]

1. Maybe, or...

I hope for the former.

[tanyev]

2. Hence their desperation to rig other parts of the election process.

They're reaching the point where redistricting alone will not be enough to give them the control they crave.

[mcar]

3. This is great news

How is it that the elections "experts" in the media did not see this coming? I'm guessing they were more interested in pushing their "Democrats are doomed11!!" scenario.

[Lovie777]

4. Fingers crossed. ....

although the Democrats need to address the voter suppression and voting rights and all the intimidation.