And so here we are - 2 weeks to go and this is the picture.
538 aggregate polls posted after the debate.
Obama's climb started September 18, at 72.9%. Four debates later, we are at Oct 23 and he is at 70.3% and climbing. No more debates - two weeks of ads, big swing state rallies (some including Bill Clinton). Though 290 electoral votes isn't as nice as 310 or 320, it is more than 270. Seems to me that aside from endless MSM schilling and spinning (and of course the "October surprise"...hmmm) - this is when the superior Dem ground game can take those few registered voters that aren't showing up in the polls as likely converted to votes.
Think about all that Obama has working against him - 4 years of relentless attacks and obstruction, a media that is in the bag for their corporate masters, and the deep pockets of the Rovian groups thanks to Citizens United. And he is positioned for a second term...
Take heart - go be a poll volunteer, make phone calls, drive people to the polls, register voters. We have a part that we can play to ensure we don't have one of the most unfit candidates in history to take the wheel of the country and drive it back into the Bush-lined ditch.
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Love the summary. I know North Raleigh well, too.
Am trying to understand the graphs. One on the left is Now, one on the right is Forecast for Nov 6.
OK, if the numbers are roughly the same, why do the line graphs look so different?
Anyway --the blue line is slightly up, red line slightly down on all graphs--and so I interpret that as meaning that the predictable pattern we see now will likely hold through election day. So I get the trend but just find the graphs a little visually confusing... basically it's close but doable for Blue. I do get the point of it being an aggregate.
Encouraging. Thanks for posting. 
for the Nov 6 forecast, he always built in the various historical impacts of events along the way - release of job reports, debates, etc. For the Now Cast, it was more tied to the news of the moment.
but yes, the trend is now going in the right direction!
that explains it. 
So uplifting and just the thing I needed this morning... not to mention it's full of great facts. 
Hope you wil post this in the Video & Multimedia Forum as soon as you have the proper post count (I think it' still ten to post an OP.)
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And by the by, welcome to DU!
