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[speak easy]

This message was self-deleted by its author (speak easy) on Thu Dec 2, 2021, 09:52 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[progree]

1. Some of that increase from early November is they began adding antigen results

beginning Nov 23

South Africa announces added antigen tests on Nov 23:
https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/11/23/media-statement-health-department-adds-antigen-tests-on-the-line-list-of-covid-19-statistics/


New cases last 2 weeks --

https://www.google.com/search?q=south+africa+new+covid+cases&oq=south+africa+new+covid+cases&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512j0i22i30l5j69i61.8222j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Nov 17: 566, Nov 18: 0, Nov 19: 1,374, Nov 20: 887, Nov 21: 687, Nov 22: 312, Nov 23: 18,586, Nov 24: 1,275, Nov 25: 2,465, Nov 26: 0, Nov 27: 6,048 (2 day average is 3,024), Nov 28: 2,858, Nov 29: 2,273, Nov 30: 4,373, Dec 1: 8,561

but the antigen stats don't explain the doubling from Nov 29 to Nov 30 and another doubling from Nov 30 to Dec 1, AFAIK.

Hospitalizations --


Hospitalizations up sharply in South African province where omicron variant detected, The Hill, 11/30/21
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/hospitalizations-up-sharply-in-south-african-province-where-omicron-variant-detected/ar-AARj0ao?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531



WHO says South Africa Covid hospitalizations are rising but it's too soon to know severity of omicron, CNBC, 12/1/21
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/who-says-south-africa-covid-hospitalizations-are-rising-but-it-s-too-soon-to-know-severity-of-omicron/ar-AARlTg5?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

[progree]

3. Not all the increase is "real", some of the increase from early November is from the

addition of antigen tests beginning November 23. That's straight from the South Africa Department of Health

https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/11/23/media-statement-health-department-adds-antigen-tests-on-the-line-list-of-covid-19-statistics/

Facts matter.

And is clear from the data --

Nov 17: 566, Nov 18: 0, Nov 19: 1,374 (2 day average of 687) , Nov 20: 887, Nov 21: 687, Nov 22: 312, Nov 23: 18,586, Nov 24: 1,275, Nov 25: 2,465, Nov 26: 0, Nov 27: 6,048 (2 day average is 3,024), Nov 28: 2,858, Nov 29: 2,273, Nov 30: 4,373, Dec 1: 8,561

And I did point out that it has doubled and redoubled in the last 2 days, and AFAIK those are real (as is anything November 24 and after AFAIK -- they include all tests).

[speak easy]

4. 1% positive Nov 1, 16% positive Dec 1 - what is it that u don't get?

[progree]

5. What is it you don't get

NOWHERE did I say in my previous posts that the results from November 24 going forward aren''t on the same basis -- they all include all tests including antigen tests.

I GET IT that there has been a huge increase recently, and I'm very concerned about it.

I'm also pointing out that the numbers before November 23 didn't include antigen tests. Unless you think the South Department of Health is lying about that, but otherwise their numbers are accurate

Facts matter

Separately WHere did you get the positivity figures by the way?

EDIT - OK, I see its in the OP.

The new cases reported Wednesday represent a 16.5% positivity rate of cases tested, up from a 1% rate early in November.

The results reported before Nov 23 don't include antigen results. Those that are include antigen results.

[speak easy]

6. I posted an an AP OP without commentary

I added research of my own - "In the Gauteng (Johannesburg) province where Omicron was first detected there were 490 active COVID-19 cases on November 1. The number for December 1 is 21, 976."

Your response - but wait - consider the antigen tests - is missing - so totally missing the bigger story - that it is not even funny. The number of cases testing positive doubled in one day. What is so hard to understand about that?

[progree]

8. OK, what I wrote was murky (edited)

Your response - but wait - consider the antigen tests - is missing - so totally missing the bigger story - that it is not even funny.

My initial post had:

but the antigen stats don't explain the doubling from Nov 29 to Nov 30 and another doubling from Nov 30 to Dec 1, AFAIK.

OK, that is murky -- but anyway what I was trying to say was that the doubling and redoubling in the last 2 days are not affected by the Nov 23 addition of the antigen tests since during the 3 days where the doubling and redoubling occurred

Nov 29: 2,273, Nov 30: 4,373, Dec 1: 8,561

All tests were included and so its all comparable and real.

The number of cases testing positive doubled in one day

True. And doubled yet again the day after as I have said in every post in this thread.

[speak easy]

10. I am not a ghoul nor an apocalypist.

So far the explosion of COVID cases, was not resulted in a comparable surge of hospitalization and deaths in South Africa. Omicron is milder than Delta. How much milder is up for debate . But I have to ask, why, in an OP about COVID cases double in one day (now tripling in 3 days) - you felt it necessary to stress that one week earlier, antigen tests were added the number a week earlier. ??! Yes, so? How is that relevant to doubling in a day? A: Not. How much difference did it make to official figures? 50%? Maybe, so what? In Gauteng province active COVID cases have increased by 50,000% since November 1 - That is the story, not a footnote about antigen tests.

[progree]

12. Because the AP reporting was misleading about the changes between early November and now

as they left out mentioning the addition of the antigen tests beginning November 23 which explains a lot of the increase (but not all of it, as I have tirelessly pointed out.

.. South Africa had seen a period of low transmission in early November with a 7-day average of about 200 new cases per day, but in the middle of November new cases began to rapidly increase.

... In the Gauteng (Johannesburg) province where Omicron was first detected there were 490 active COVID-19 cases on November 1. The number for December 1 is 21, 976.

I think it is important to know what is behind the numbers. As I tripped up a few days ago in posting about the South Africa numbers -- that was back before the Nov 30 and Dec 1 numbers, so they looked like this at the time:

Nov 17: 566, Nov 18: 0, Nov 19: 1,374 (2 day average of 687), Nov 20: 887, Nov 21: 687, Nov 22: 312, Nov 23: 18,586, Nov 24: 1,275, Nov 25: 2,465, Nov 26: 0, Nov 27: 6,048 (2 day average is 3,024), Nov 28: 2,858, Nov 29: 2,273,

and I made an enormous hoohah about the gigantic 1700% increase in the 7 day average from the 7 day average 2 weeks prior. (A 1700% increase is an 18-fold increase)

And somebody pointed out the anti-gen test issue which they should have, as those 18,586 cases added on Nov 23 make a huge huge difference in the 7 day comparisons , and I edited my postings appropriately and thanked him. Because I'm an engineer and scientist, not a polemicist.

And as I have said over and over and over again, every post of mine in this thread pointed out the doubling and redoubling in the last 2 days.

Edited to add (426p CT):

And knowing about the anti-gen tests is crucial to understanding the big downturn in the 7 day moving average:

The most recent 7 days don't include the gigantic addition of several days of antigen tests on Nov 23 (resulting in 18,586 new cases added that day)

https://www.google.com/search?q=south+africa+new+covid+cases&oq=south+africa+new+covid+cases&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512j0i22i30l5j69i61.8222j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

While 7 day periods whose END POINT is in the Nov 23 to Nov 29 date range do

[speak easy]

7. Update today: 22% testing positive for COVID, Nov 1, 1%

The compiled results matter.

[progree]

9. The ones before November 23 do not include the antigen tests

and the ones after do. So they are not on the same basis.

The facts behind the compiled results matter.

However, as far as I know, there isn't a huge difference between the error rates of PCR tests and antigen tests, certainly nothing that explains a 22-fold increase, so I consider most of this "real" and very alarming.

Edited to add: Particularly considering the 22% result is based on a larger pool of tests.

[speak easy]

11. And how is this relevant to the doubling of cases on Dec 1?

[progree]

13. It isn't. As I explained in this thread a half dozen times now. But its relevant to

Last edited Thu Dec 2, 2021, 06:34 PM - Edit history (2)

comparing the percent increase for results after November 23 to results before it.

Edited to add 433pm CT: And knowing about the anti-gen tests is crucial to understanding the big downturn in the 7 day moving average:

The most recent 7 days don't include the gigantic addition of several days of antigen tests on Nov 23 (resulting in 18,586 new cases added that day)

https://www.google.com/search?q=south+africa+new+covid+cases&oq=south+africa+new+covid+cases&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512j0i22i30l5j69i61.8222j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

While 7 day periods whose END POINT is in the Nov 23 to Nov 29 date range do