DU Poll, chances BBB passes the Senate now

[Johnny2X2X]

Thrilled that the House passed this, it is truly a transformational piece of legislation for the country. So back to the Senate where certain Senators gave their work to consider it earnestly. I think it will pass the Senate, but I'm an optimist. It will definitely be weakened slightly though by Sinema and Manchin.

What says DU? What are the chances this becomes law?

26 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	100%
	14 (54%)
	75%
	3 (12%)
	50%
	3 (12%)
	25%
	3 (12%)
	0%
	3 (12%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
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[Wounded Bear]

1. Some version of it will pass...

I have to believe that. According to Ms Jayapal, most of this has been pre-conferenced with Man-Sin in the loop.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Love the optimism

Nancy and Chuck are skilled, they kept Sinema and Manchin involved every step of the way. I think it passes, but it's not quite 100%.

[NCjack]

3. Not passed until it is substantially weaked and embarrasses President Biden.

[CTyankee]

4. I'm not so sure. Because of Kevin Mc strange blubbering the Rs look like horses asses.

It's out there for all to see. Soiled Republican underwear now detected...

[Raine]

5. As is ... zip, zero & zilch. nt

[FBaggins]

6. Zero

Some form of BBB - likely much smaller than the current version - will eventually pass in the Senate.

The chances that "this" becomes law (as in, the version that the House just passed) are close to zero. The chance that BBB in some other form becomes law depends on what progressive do when whatever the Senate passes gets back to them.

[karynnj]

10. I agree with you, but am optimistic on what the House will do with what they are sent

I don't think they will get any Republican votes - no matter how much the Senate removes. However, I think there will not be enough protest votes from the progressives to defeat the bill. The reason is that EVERYTHING in the bill is something that is important to progressives. Even though they will be disappointed as things important to them are removed, the remainder are all things that they really want.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

7. Waiting to see how far Sinemskya and Manchinskova

will go to bring down President Biden, Democratic party, and the United States.

[karynnj]

8. Like you, I am an optimist that SOMETHING of this will pass

It will likely take time to go thru the procedural processes needed for reconciliation. Some pieces may be removed because of this. Other pieces will very likely be weakened or removed by Sinema. We can all hope that the changes are minimal. However, there are so many important things in the bill, the House will likely pass (on a party line basis) the bill the Senate approves.

One thing that is very important is that it would be a fantastic idea for progressives and other Democrats to concentrate their comments on the very real important features of the bill that Biden has the opportunity to sign. The media will likely want to get unhappy quotes by advocates of anything removed. That and the image of Democrats not in agreement with each other should NOT be the story out of passage of the two bills.

IF even half of this bill (and I think of that as a VERY low estimate) of the bill passes, it with BIF will be transformational and bigger than what has been done since LBJ. This all in spite of Biden having 50 Senators not the about 68, including some who were Dixiecrats, that LBJ had. In addition, there was only a margin of 3 Congressmen. Far from Democrats not working together, if all of this (even if not 100% of BBB) passes, it will be because of incredible discipline on the part of the Democrats to focus on what is possible.

As to meme of Democrats in disarray - remember that none of that meme came out when McCain voted "no" on gutting ACA. McConnell actually HAD more than 50 Senators, but he could not get 50 on that vote even though he hyped it as an important vote.

[Amishman]

9. will probably watered down a little more, but will eventually pass

I just hope the expanded child credit stays in, both for my own benefit but also because it is direct and visible aid to those who need it.

[Celerity]

11. It is flip a coin for me, and I see little chance the House version survives intact

IF BBB does completely fail, then 2022 (and thus likely 2024) looms as a bloodbath, especially if the obstructionists Manchin and Sinema also block the voter rights/protection bills by refusing to allow filibuster carve-outs.

IF those 2 Senators block all of the above, they will almost assuredly go down as the most hated Dems since the old Dixiecrat white power segregationists, and perhaps pass them IF we lose in 2022 and 2024, and the nation comes under the bootheel of a white nationalist-undergirded fascist thugacracy.