The Democratic Turnout Myth Unravels

[Celerity]

It was long thought that surges in voting would help Democrats. So how does the party explain Glenn Youngkin’s victory?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/politics/democrats-turnout-virginia.html



Ever since Barack Obama swept into the White House on the strength of record turnout, it has been an article of faith among Democrats that the more people who vote, the better the party will fare.

When turnout sagged, during the 2010 and the 2014 midterm elections, Republicans won wave elections. In 2016, fewer people voted than in 2012 and Donald J. Trump won the presidency, shocking Democrats and turbocharging a more explicit Republican argument that making voting harder would make it easier for the G.O.P. to win elections.

Then turnout jumped again in the Trump years — in Virginia four years ago, in special elections and in the 2018 midterms. Joseph R. Biden Jr. ousted Mr. Trump in a national election with record-high turnout. Republicans spent the next year, in states they control, fighting to make it harder to vote and promoting lies that the 2020 turnout had been stocked with fraudulent Democratic votes.

How then to explain the election on Tuesday in Virginia, where Glenn Youngkin, now the Republican governor-elect, beat former Gov. Terry McAuliffe in a contest in which at least 25 percent more votes were cast than in any governor’s race in the state’s history? (The number will go up; mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day will be counted as long as they are received by this Friday.)

snip

[BootinUp]

1. IMHO, It's not a strong indicator of anything much. nt

[sop]

2. Look at the numbers:

Biden/Harris received 2,413,568 votes in Virginia in 2020, Trump/Pence received 1,962,430. Youngkin received 1,669,053 votes, McAuliffe got 1,588,331 (99%in).

Much fewer total votes were cast in the McAuliffe/Youngkin contest, it wasn't Exactly a "surge." When Democrats turn out, they win.

[bottomofthehill]

3. Youngkin got nearly 600,000 votes more than any other Republican governor nominee

In VA history. They were able to mobilize closer to their presidential year number in an off year election.

[stopdiggin]

4. Americans are a pissed off bunch in general

and the 'gubmint' is an favored and easy target. I think there's a fallacy in overthinking this simple (and simplistic) truth - because Joe Sixpack certainly doesn't.

[kacekwl]

5. One day soon all the non-voting folks

will wake up to a fascist state and wonder what happened. The percentage of citizens who vote in any election is inexcusable.

[Justice matters.]

7. They don't care. As long as they'll have sports on teevee...

UFC/WWE fights, NFL, MLB and online bets, they won't give a poop.

[Elessar Zappa]

6. So their

voter suppression efforts may have unintended consequences. But anyway, I’m not sure this one race proves that voter turnout doesn’t help Democrats.

[Politicub]

8. Turnout helps the party most successful with driving turnout.

Every election cycle there are myriad discussions about voter turnout favoring this person or that person.

Here’s the thing: turnout is a metric to analyze. It isn’t some kind of mysterious force or omen; it’s a real-world measurement of the effectiveness of a campaign.

Turnout is a lot of work. Ask Stacey Abrams about how much work it takes.

How hard did the McAuliffe campaign work? Did he inspire the army of volunteers it takes to canvass?

I feel for the people of Virginia who will find themselves in the crosshairs of the GOP. The people who voted and worked hard do not deserve what’s coming their way.

What we have now is data to sift through. Reams of it. The cost of the data gathered is high, so I hope we don’t throw up our hands, wallow in apathy and squander this hard-earned knowledge.

Giving up is not an option for me. Being gay is a political act, regardless if I sit on my hands or work for change.

[nitpicker]

9. No one knocked on my door

Both main sides just sent me literature through the mail.

I was pleasantly surprised in the 2020 Presidential primary to have some garden-apartment dwellers come by to vote in my precinct.

The trouble is, it's a half-mile walk from the nearest bus stop to the school to go vote, and then another half-mile to reach home downhill. Add rain...

Virginia did make efforts to make absentee voting and early voting more accessible, but if one doesn't have a computer or a car, I suspect many of them shrugged off this election, maybe thinking McAuliffe et.al. would win.

I know one Repug that sat out the 2020 general election, but decided to vote this time.

We NEED to improve our turnout.