Chuck Todd on MSNBC just said Romney can't win FL without Hispanic Vote

[berni_mccoy]

Romney is losing the Hispanic vote to Obama by 45 points O(70)-R(25). Chuck just started to say he said he doesn't see how Romney can win FL when Andrea cut him off !

I think the writing is on the wall in FL!



On Update: I've noted before in other posts that the national polls undersample Hispanics; Nate Silver also called this out as well and it may be that pollsters are going to have to start performing bilingual polls.

[still_one]

1. I don't know. Do Cuban Americans have the same issues as Mexican Americans?

[Arkana]

2. Older ones, yes, younger ones, not so much.

[still_one]

4. Thanks for the perspective

[berni_mccoy]

3. The poll showing Obama leading 70-25 in the Hispanic vote was done in FL.

So while I get your caveat to be wary to lump all hispanics in the same category, this was specific to FL.

[still_one]

7. Wow, that is great, I hope it is accurate

[GoCubsGo]

12. Yep. Lots of other Hispanic groups down there, besides Cubans and Mexicans, too.

There are tons of Dominicans and Puerto Ricans, as well. Probably many from Central and South America, too.

[porphyrian]

5. Old school Cubans tend to be republican, but more and more Florida Hispanics are from other places.

I don't know the exact distribution today, but I believe republican Hispanics are already in the minority in Florida. Basically, if Romney needs the Florida Hispanic vote, he's shit out of luck.

[1-Old-Man]

6. In the years I lived in Miami I never met a Cuban who wasn't a Republican.

I lived in Miami, FL for about 10 years, never met a single Cuban who wasn't a Republican that I can remember.

[speedoo]

11. OK, but didn't the Cuban population there stop growing long ago?

If so, they are now a small minority of FL Hispanics.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. The older gen is fixed on Cuba Libre and the Cold war

Marco Rubio aside, younger ones have more in common with their Mexican and Central American brothers and sisters. This is driving the older gen quite frankly, nuts.

Kids really don't care about Cuba Libre, let alone going back after the Glorious liberation.

This is partly in jest, but...there is quite a grain of truth here.

[HooptieWagon]

23. There's more than a grain of truth.

You are absolutely correct. Each successive generation of Cuban-Americans is more Democratic than the previous. Latinos of Cuban heritage in Tampa, for instance, vote like hispanics in general since their ancestors settled here 125 years ago, long before Castro. They consider themselves Americans, not Cuban-Americans. The first-generation of Miami Cubans was a republican monolith, but they are aging and their children identify more Democratic than their parents. Also, Florida has many more hispanics from other than Cuban origin... Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, Mexicans, and Central and South Americans. Cubans may have a plurality as to country of origin, but they are no longer a majority. Hispanic demographics in Florida have changed dramatically in the past 50 years.

[Arugula Latte]

24. It is true that that Cuban exodus generation won't be around much longer.

For example, someone who left Cuba during the Revolution when s/he was 30 is now 83.

Hopefully their Republicanism didn't "take" universally with their children and grandchildren.

[Mojorabbit]

22. My area in central florida has a huge

Puerto Rican population and they tend to vote Dem.

[Coexist]

27. the only Cubans I know here (and yes this is anecdotal) that support Republicans

are really old. They under 50 set all favor the color blue.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

8. Chuck doesn't know what he's saying anymore

He, more than anyone, on that network has been desperately trying to keep the "Romney is closing with women" meme alive even though almost every poll shows either no shift at all, or very modest movement toward Romney (1-3 pts) and yet in Chuck's world it's a tsunami.

He's also very slow to incorporate polls that don't fit his narrative into his narrative. For example you'll never hear a word from him about the Q poll that had O up by 5 in Ohio today. He'll never utter the words.

I'd rather listen to fucking Hannity than this guy because at least you know where that crazy bastard stands. He's not masquerading as anything other than a RW gas bag.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

10. Todd is a self promoter.

Seems to he trying to heighten the drama.

[Spazito]

9. Yep, and Chuckie wasn't happy about having to report that....

and did his best to do the 'but, but, but' stuff to try and put the best light on it, imo. I despise him, he is a repub booster and does little to hide it.

[reformist2]

14. Is that right, the major pollsters don't do bilingual polls???

I'm amazed. Such an oversight.

[berni_mccoy]

17. If you check the cross-tabs of most polls that publish them

Hispanics are usually a very minute sample of the total.

I think on the order of about 0.5-1% on a 1000+ sample (at least for Gallup's last set of crosstabs last week and Politico/GW's poll today).

[HooptieWagon]

25. Latinos are about 10% of Florida's population.

If you count hispanic surnames, that goes over 30%.

[HockeyMom]

15. Puerto Ricans

Local paper reported that there has been an influx of Puerto Ricans, especially to the Orlando area. How they broke it down I don't know, but they reported thast the Puerto Ricans are the largest Hispanic group voting Democratic and giving Obama 80% range over Romney.

[Bohunk68]

28. Quite possible

My sis is married to a guy who is PR and they just moved down to Kissimee where some of his relations live. They are all Dems. My Sis is close to 60 and her hubby is over 65. I know him and I are about the same age and I just turned 69. They are also very positive about GLBT marriage equality. Having me in the family as an activist hasn't hurt.

[Lint Head]

16. I do put any value on anything Chucky the Toad ever says.

[cleduc]

18. 29% of FL Latinos are Cuban

http://www.christianpost.com/news/latino-demographics-suggest-gop-may-struggle-in-florida-67952/

In the most recent census (2010), those of Cuban descent were 29 percent of the Latino population

In a recent Survey USA poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac0d63ea-75f1-42aa-ba9c-e6955f64c76b
Romney leads with Cubans 48-40
Obama leads non-Cuban Latinos 67-27

When you combine those two groups, Obama leads 59-33

[justiceischeap]

19. That's pretty much Rmoney's hispanic support in FL. nt

[berni_mccoy]

20. Even if we go with 59-33 from another poll, it's bad for Romney

He can't win FL with that.

[flamingdem]

21. si se puede

lo siento senior todd pero Obama va a ganar

[BelieveMe3]

26. Florida hispanics v Cubans

Yes, here in FLA there is a big difference between cubans and other hispanics. Cubans continue to hold Dems responsible for the Bay of Pigs. Go figure. But other hispanics are much more likely to vote democrat. We are a strange state. South of Orlando, but for cubans, it's mostly blue. North of Orlando we become white, conservative, redneck and RED, but for the college towns. I don't know if Chuck is right. The Cuban vote might offset Romney's deficit with other latinos.

[malaise]

29. Sweet as...!!!

[Skidmore]

30. And yesterday on DU I swear I saw a thread saying that we were abandoning FL.

Good news, if true.

[DonCoquixote]

31. what this is code for

It is meant torile up the Cubans who are angry that we Puerto Ricans and Maxicans are moving into THEIR little colony,aka Florida, aka Cubano dela Norte.