How close did the "attempted coup" come to succeeding?

[kentuck]

Perhaps much closer than any of us think?

They succeeded in stopping the Electoral Count at its prescribed time and schedule. Circumstances permitted the House and Senate to re-convene later that night and to continue the vote they had begun earlier in the day.

What circumstances permitted them to re-convene?

The Electoral Count was stopped as House members and Senators scrambled to get out of harms way, as the angry mob made its way thru the Capitol. Leaders of both Parties were calling Donald Trump for assistance and asking him to speak and to call off the mob. He refused.

The fear and the horror continued for several hours. People hid in their offices, in closets and under desks, as the rampage continued. Many Capitol Hill policemen were injured, some of them quite severely as they fought off the mob. (There is little doubt but that their heroic efforts gave the Senators and House members time to escape to safer grounds) Some people died.

Still, Trump reveled in the actions of his supporters as they raised the Trump flag and lowered the American flag. He refused to give them the help they needed.

Someone called the Governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan, for help. He agreed to send the Maryland State Police and the Maryland National Guard to assist in the defense of the Capitol. Eventually Trump agreed to speak to the mob and in kind re-assuring words, he told them to go home. The people now could see what happens when an election is a "fraud". (To this day, he still has not denounced this insurrection and attempted coup)

If the Governor of Maryland had not sent the police and the National Guard, would there have been a re-convening of the Congress? Would the Electoral Count have continued? Would Trump have sent the military in to quell the situation? We do not know.

But, it does seem that the "coup" was much closer than we might have thought.

[Kid Berwyn]

1. Thisclose.

ThePentagon, Capitol Hill PD leadership, and who knows what else was ordered to protect the likes of this guy...

Link to tweet

[kentuck]

2. If they had captured Mike Pence...?

Do you think they would have put the rope around his neck??

I think they probably would have.

[Kid Berwyn]

6. Absolutely.

ScheiBnozzle and Herr Bannon would blame Antifa, declare the current REX-84 version of COG martial law, install orangeanus as permanent Fuehrer and pull the plug on all who oppose.

[multigraincracker]

31. Mob mentality is a scary thing,

if you have ever seen it at work.

[JohnSJ]

3. I think we came very close. There were people in that mob who had every intention of doing harm

to the VP, Democratic leaders and Democratic members in the House and Senate, and they would have used that as justification to declare martial law if that happened.

If that had occurred, in the aftermath, and based on the "lines of succession", the republicans would have had full control, and I have no doubt they would have suspended the Constitution, and declared the election null and void.

[Eyeball_Kid]

7. Anyone casually following the events and the behavior of Trumpy-Boy

had come to the logical conclusion that martial law and suspension of the Constitution were predictable outcomes.

What Trump and his band of counterrevolutionaries and fascists didn't consider was the chaos of violent group actions. They didn't do well with contingency planning based on the assumption that their plans would go awry at some point or another. Military commanders normally consider managing chaos as part of the scope of planning and design. Trump, as we all know, as no understanding of such matters, and was completely consumed by basking in glory as his worshippers attempted a government overthrow IN HIS NAME. This is why the coup failed. If Trump had experience with any kind of military command, we'd be living under "provisional dictatorial rule" right now. Thankfully, he was plain stupid.

[JohnSJ]

11. True. We were very lucky, and when the truth comes out, and history books are written, I think

it show how close we came.

Like the Cuban missile crisis, we came very close to a nuclear war than I think many realized at the time. All it needed was one renegade general to light the match, and I think Curtis LeMay was very close to doing just that, but fortunately JFK and McNamara put the brakes on that, and he stood down.

[tanyev]

26. I've actually wondered how no elected officials or staff were injured, or worse.

Thank goodness they weren’t, but I agree, there were people in that mob intending to do harm. Was it because there were just enough Capitol police officers doing their damndest that they managed to hold off the mob until reinforcements FINALLY arrived? Was it because most of the insurrectionists were too lazy to do more than a half-baked search for targets? Whatever the reason, it could have easily ended very differently.

[JohnSJ]

27. I think we were very lucky, and the fact that the few Capital police were able to move people out

of vulnerable areas saved us.

I don't know if you recall when the mob broke into the Senate chamber, and were demanding to know where the Senators were. It was literally minutes I believe that the Senators escaped the mob

[tanyev]

28. I recall reading something about how some of the insurrection leaders

discussed using gas in the tunnels. If enough of that mob had decided to charge the tunnels, seems like they could have overrun the police force. Horrible.

[JohnSJ]

29. That too. It was scary

[multigraincracker]

32. That one bullet that stopped or slowed down the invasion

may have saved us. Now they want to prosecute the hero.

[Cosmocat]

4. A pubic hair AND it isn't over ...

Look, some of these scumbags are going to feel some SERIOUS pain over this, but 99.9% of the "conservatives" in this country aren't, and most likely NONE of the elected or governmental officials that were part of it. Given their immediate, brazen work to white wash it, it is clear they view this as a win, one in which they will learn from and build on in the near future.

They didn't pull off an immediate coup that kept 45 in office. But, it is not binary, it absolutely has advanced their ongoing, relentless drive to turn the US into a chrisofascist Idiocracy.

[BlueStater]

5. Not very close at all.

I don’t disagree with the notion that those assholes had every intention of murdering Pelosi and any other elected officials they could find. I just don’t think they came close to succeeding.

I think if they had actually gotten close enough to Pelosi and Pence to actually do physical harm to them (i.e. if they were in their line of vision), they would have been shot dead by security on the spot. In that regard, I believe January 6 could have been a far bloodier day than it ended up being. We came disturbingly close to dead bodies lining the floors of the US Capitol.

[kentuck]

8. The mob had guns...

They just didn't feel the need to brandish them.

[BlueStater]

9. I know, but we're talking trained Secret Service agents against fat, stupid rednecks.

Suffice to say, I think the mob would have gotten the worst of that encounter for sure.

[kentuck]

10. Perhaps?

I'm not so sure.

[haele]

14. Some of those fat, stupid rednecks seemed extremely organized.

And not so fat and stupid. Some of them- perhaps about 30 to 50- acted like they had trained and were on an operation.
The rednecks and Q-freaks just slowed them down enough that the Capitol Police and Secret Service members were able to keep the insurrectionists from harming any lawmakers.

Haele

[fescuerescue]

23. They need to make sure the entire American public sees what guns they had

Put them on the news every night.

Then ban each of those models.

[Eyeball_Kid]

12. Yes. That's correct, IMO.

The planning of the coup was amaterish. A more ruthless path to government overthrow would have meant the expectation that people would be killed and injured no matter what. Weapons would have been a required element. And yes, those who were protecting members of government and Congress would have drawn their weapons and fired on anyone who had gotten too close. The Capitol building would have been a bloodbath in very short order, and the casualties among the insurrectionists would be heavy.

Instead, Trump's militia had to overthrow government on a TV version of a coup. Trump would have sold corporate sponsorships for the television rights because that's how he thinks. He was anticipating the moment when he'd "have no choice" but to invoke martial law, but the chaos (Trump's middle name) never reached that level when it had to. That turning point had nearly been reached when members of Congress were scurrying through halls and stairwells just steps ahead of the onrushing mob. It was BY VIRTUE of chaos that a physical confrontation didn't develop in which multiple rioters dropped in pools of their own blood. THAT would have been enough to invoke martial law.

[kentuck]

13. And Trump had given orders to not use force on the "marchers" (mob)

And he had planted people in the Pentagon to manipulate the movement of any troops.

I think it was much more planned than some realize.

[keithbvadu2]

18. Yes! "a TV version of a coup"

Yes! "a TV version of a coup"

Trump terrorist got maced

Revolution was supposed to be easy

https://imgur.com/gallery/RBNKPmM

[PortTack]

16. Agree...the only way they would have gotten close was if they had had military backing

It’s been obvious since shortly following the George Floyd DC protests the military wanted no part in these messes and refused to help the orange mass. They penned several letters to politicians and to the enlisted forces making their position crystal clear.

[Hortensis]

24. Agree with BlueState about the mob in the Capitol, plus they could have

shot every Democrat in congress and that would not have taken control of the government.

Critically, the people rousing the rabble failed to establish control of critical elements for a coup: communications, the press, the military, the judiciary, and others.

They did have control of the senate and probably a bunch of states, and people ready to take over the house.

I'm far from believing we would know how close they came to partial support from any of the critical elements if they did. They lost the judiciary, critically for them; but how might their SCOTUS majority have decided in 2020 and then in 2021 if given a semi-plausible opportunity (as in Bush v Gore) to throw the election? In 2021 they would have exposed themselves as part of an internal coup. We know Trump was trying to get support from/instill his agents in the military, and I suspect top brass must have wondered if and where their chain of command might fail.

[left-of-center2012]

15. Trump told them to go home ...

By saying "We love you and your special"

[Hortensis]

17. Which one? I believe they've been trying, or trying to create a chance to grab

since 2015. And the answer is scary close every time. We see ourselves as winning in 2020 by 7 million, but they actually lost by falling only a few thousand votes short in a few places. What if they hadn't lost control of the house in 2018?

I've said before that I believe their refusal to stop an opportunistically available pandemic was part of that. Somewhere between 600 and 900 thousand dead so far, failed to precipitate whatever perfect storm they needed so far, but they're still using it.

[jalan48]

19. It's the latest and most dangerous step in the de-legitimization of government first started under

Reagan ( the government is not your friend President). Fox News, Rush Limbaugh and others in the right wing media have demonized Democrats and liberals for decades laying the groundwork for what we saw on January 6th. We no longer live in a country where ideas get debated and legislation comes about through compromise, we live in a country where one side says the other needs to be destroyed. Getting rid of Trump didn't solve the problem it just delayed the inevitable war that will be fought by the Fascists against those who believe in democracy and the rule of law.

[FakeNoose]

20. I think the coup would never have succeeded in keeping Chump

However this insurrection did cause a temporary delay in the Electoral Certification and that DOES concern me. Why did the House and Electoral College delegates have to meet all in one room when it could have easily been accomplished as a zoom-meeting? It was reckless and dangerous placing all of those elected officials in the same room on that day.

In my mind they were asking for trouble. Once Chump and the crazies made it clear what their plans were, something else should have been figured out. Either meet at another venue in Washington, or meet online in a secure zoomer - OR delay the certification by a few days.

[Fiendish Thingy]

21. If the coup had "succeeded", Trump would still not be president

If the electoral count was successfully stopped on Jan. 6, it would have resumed another time.

If the electoral ballots had been seized, the states would have had to send replacements, or the copies sent to the national archives would be used.

If the certification was delayed past January 20, Pelosi would have become president.

If the mob succeeded in killing Pelosi, then Patrick Leahy or Chuck Grassley would have become president. If they were also killed, then Mike Pompeo or another cabinet member would have become president.

So, a murderous tragedy may have narrowly been averted on January 6, but as far as being “successful” in keeping Trump in office? Nope.

[Hortensis]

25. Right. Other parts had to succeed and didn't. But what if the whole coup

wasn't quite as absurdly inept as it seems? They lacked control of critical institutions, but what if a couple had weaknesses we don't know about?

They had the current president, control of the senate, and a clear majority in SCOTUS. How would SCOTUS have acted if their part was essentially rubberstamping a mostly successful coup -- rather than being called on to make a failed, inept coup succeed?

Trump's 3 justices had to have given him reason to believe he could call on them. Well, maybe he could under much safer conditions, just not to blatantly support an illegal coup and risk not having the protection of a satisfied despot?

Foreign hackers are hardly the only ones who can disrupt systems, including communications, and Russia and Iran hardly the only states that can hire them.

[fescuerescue]

22. They are no match for the American military

While know they had tons of guns and explosives with them, once the military moved in, it would have been squashed in a few minutes.

[davsand]

30. I think it was close in terms of physical proximity.

The insurgents were in the building and lawmakers were at risk. Our internal enemies were entirely too close to key members of government, IMO. In that sense, it was a near thing.

As far as how likely was the "plan" (using that term loosely) to succeed? I think that they grossly over estimated their influence in the military in both command and troop level. If you stop to think about it, they had always demonstrated a huge lack of understanding or appreciation of the military, and this was no different. It was taken for granted that the troops and commanders both were gonna do as ordered--without any consideration of the appropriateness of the orders. I'm not trying to romanticize all military personnel, but EVERY one of them serves this NATION and its constitution--not just one orange anal wart. I honestly think that was forgotten. Yes, there were some retired military and a few active duty folks in that mob, but certainly not everybody. The ones who chose to participate in that were the aberrations.

Awful, terrifying stuff happened--and the participants and instigators must be held accountable for it--but I doubt it was ever gonna succeed in the end.



Laura