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[applegrove]

This message was self-deleted by its author (applegrove) on Sat May 8, 2021, 04:19 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[brewens]

1. Deaths exceeding the usual number should confirm that. It will be offset by a couple things,

like almost no flu this year, but that will hardly make any difference.

[applegrove]

2. Yes the article says that.

[Ilsa]

3. I believe it. nt

[Celerity]

4. Outlier IMHO

The revised statistical model used by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation team produced numbers larger than many other analyses, raising some eyebrows in the scientific community.

"I think that the overall message of this (that deaths have been substantially undercounted and in some places more than others) is likely sound, but the absolute numbers are less so for a lot of reasons," said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, in an email to NPR.

Last month, a group of researchers at Virginia Commonwealth University published a study in the medical journal JAMA that examined excess mortality rates in the U.S. through December. While that team similarly found the number of excess deaths far exceeded the official COVID-19 death toll, it disagreed that the gap could be blamed entirely on COVID-19 and not other causes.

"Their estimate of excess deaths is enormous and inconsistent with our research and others," said Dr. Steven Woolf, who led the Virginia Commonwealth team. "There are a lot of assumptions and educated guesses built into their model."

[applegrove]

6. But it is way over 400,000

[ProfessorGAC]

8. Of Course

It's nearly 600k. That isn't really in dispute except by COVID deniers.
But, this model shows around 400,000 more deaths than reported, all attributable to COVID. That's not realistic nor is it scientifically based. Lots of assumptions & hunches.
And, their models were consistently wrong throughout the pandemic. Then they'd update it and revise the math. Then, they'd be wrong again. Then the new model would be drastically different based upon revisions.
They went through that cycle at least 3 times.
Their credibility took a big hit in 2020.
This new report isn't helping.

[applegrove]

9. I'll take it down.

[ProfessorGAC]

7. Actuaries Agree!

For almost a year now, actuaries I know at 3 big insurance companies have been touting 15-20% over reported numbers.
These are all very educated & experienced data scientists, two of which are department heads.
When I first saw this new model I emailed 2 of them and said these numbers looked ridiculously high. I asked them if they bought these results.
I got the same two word reply from both of them. "No way!"