4. In the following I will show that:
a. There was a one-sided “red shift” or margin of victory VC shift for
Presidential candidate Donald Trump relative to his UEP margin of
victory, in the 26 out of the 28 states where exit polls were
conducted. The odds for such a one-sided VC shift for Trump in
multiple states occurring as result of random sampling, or statistical,
error, is a nearly impossible 1 in 710,147.
b. This included statistically significant reduced VC relative to UEP for
Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton that was likely to happen by
chance less than 5% of the time occurred in seven states: MO, OH,
NJ, PA, UT, ME, and NC. For example:
c. Candidate Clinton’s reported PA VC of 47.6% was below the lower
end of a 95% confidence CI, showing a statistically significant VC
discrepancy with her UEP that would be expected to occur by chance
3
As is noted in the text, the MO general election Senate race screen shot was generously supplied by Jonathan Simon,
Director and Co-Founder of the Election Defense Alliance.
3
only 1.1282% of the time, or with less than a 1 in 85 chance.
d. This pattern of pervasive “red shift” also included statistically
significant VC increases for candidate Trump relative to his UEP
that were likely to happen by chance less than 5% of the time in OH,
NC, MO, IA, NJ, GA, WI, ME, FL, PA, IN, SC, NV, NH, UT, CO,
and AZ. Of these, highly significant VC shifts for Trump were
concentrated in the battleground or deep red states of: OH, NC, MO,
IA, GA, WI, and FL. As is explained below, the UEPs for FL and MI
are likely to be at least partially adjusted and thus not true UEPs.
The 2 out of 28 cases of UEP – VC deviations against Trump in MN
and NY were not statistically significant. For example:
e. For example, the official WI VC of 47.8% for candidate Trump was
above the upper end of a 95% confidence interval (CI) around the
UEP for Trump in WI showing a statistically significant VC
discrepancy that would be expected to occur by chance only 0.163%
of the time, or less than a 1 in 614 chance.
f. The official NC VC of 47.8% for candidate Trump was above the
upper end of a 95% CI around the UEP for Trump in NC, showing a
statistically significant VC discrepancy with his UEP that would be
expected to occur by chance only 0.0055% of the time, or less than a
1 in 18,073 chance.
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g. The official FL VC of 49.1% for candidate Trump was above the
upper end of a 95% CI around the UEP for Trump in FL, showing a
statistically significant VC discrepancy with his UEP that would be
expected to occur by chance only 0.3872% of the time, or less than a
1 in 258 chance, and as is noted below this is most likely an
underestimate of the odds as the FL UEP was probably already
partially adjusted to match the VC due to state of FL covering two
time zones.
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