Sen. Joe Manchin on ending the filibuster: 'Jesus Christ, what don't you understand about 'never'?'

[Celerity]

https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-manchin-says-he-will-never-support-ending-the-filibuster-2021-3

In a democracy, 50% plus one equals a governing majority. But in the US Senate, it takes 60 votes — or arcane maneuvers like budget "reconciliation" — to get much of anything done thanks to the filibuster, a Senate rule allowing a senator or senators from the minority party to hold up a bill, which has ossified into a permanent obstacle. And that, Sen. Joe Manchin said on Monday, will "never" change so long as he's around.

Democrats, in control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, are eager to utilize their trifecta to deliver memorable reforms ahead of the next mid-term elections, which have historically seen the ruling party suffer setbacks. Some of it can be done the 50 plus one way: the $1.9 trillion stimulus package on track to be passed this week includes $1,400 checks, a $400 per week boost in unemployment, and billions in aid for state and local governments. But a ruling by the Senate's parliamentarian means it will not include a hike in the minimum wage — and Republican support for $15 an hour by 2025 does not appear to be in the offing.

But, as critics are quick to note, there is nothing in the US Constitution that demands that a Senate majority's legislation be stymied in perpetuity by a filibuster (and the need to get 60 votes to end debate). Indeed, that simple Senate majority could elect to just do away with what is just a tradition, not a law. Manchin, the senator from West Virginia, is one of two Democrats standing in the way of that (the other is Arizona Sen. Krysten Sinema). And he's not going to change his mind.

"Never!" he shouted at a journalist who asked if setbacks to the Democratic agenda might lead him to reconsider, per a pool report filed Monday night by Bloomberg News' Erik Wasson. "Jesus Christ, what don't you understand about 'never'?" If Manchin's party is unable to move forward with other big-ticket items, however, expect rank-and-file Democrats and members of the press to keep asking him the question.

snip

[rainy]

1. Can some group run ads in WV

to get his constituents to pressure him? They must see the need to end the filibuster!

[Celerity]

3. He is never going to cave on it, nor will he cave on SCOTUS expansion, nor even lower federal court

expansion.

Also, he already said HE was the one 'compromising' on 11 usd per hour, and would support it IF it passed via reconciliation, which it is not, as it is not going to be included as Biden will not buck the Parliamentarian.

A standalone wage increase bill will be filibustered, so that is down the shitter as well. I furthermore think that if we do add in a wage increase to a 'must pass' bill like a Defence appropriation, Manchin might, at that point, demand it be reduced MORE, to say 9.50 usd, 10 usd per hour max, or (worst case) remove it period.

I also am not convinced (this has nothing to do with Manchin or Sinema) that the Rethugs will cave in, even on a Defence spending bill. They will dare us to keep the minimum wage in it, and in classic Rethug lie mode, somehow blame DEMS for fucking the nation over by not passing a Defence bill.

[Amishman]

28. His constituents voted for Trump 2 to 1.

Manchin knows his state, which is exactly why he is doing what he is doing.

Push Manchin too hard and he could easily follow WV Governor Justice's lead and flip parties.

President Biden wouldn't have a single cabinet member confirmed yet if it wasn't for Manchin. Be glad for the occasional yes vote from him, because we can't replace him given WV's current political landscape

[redstatebluegirl]

31. Thank you!

[rainy]

35. But but but wouldn't they at least want $15 an hour minimum wage?

[bdamomma]

41. So is

Manchin obstructionist substitute for Mitch McConnell ?

[WarGamer]

38. 70% voted for Trump.

You want the citizens of WV to put the squeeze on him?

You want him to flip and swear in McConnell?

[Rhiagel]

2. He's a champion of gridlock.

Doing nothing gets you nothing but nothing.

[Fullduplexxx]

4. There goes 2022

Manchin the cons best friend

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

5. With the filibuster in place, Moscow Mitch can ensure Biden will fail.

With Manchin in the Senate, Biden's walking a fine line. Manchin can vote against the Dems and Mitch wins. Or he can just nor vote and Mitch wins. And Manchin will act like that at will, for no reason at all. Like McConnell, he only wants power, and being able to fuck Biden and the rest of the country over at a whim gives Manchin a lot of power.

[mitch96]

16. Yup, Manchin D.I.N.O. NT

[HootieMcBoob]

6. He's his own worst enemy

If the Democrats lose their majority you can thank Manchin and Sinema. If no legislation is passed that helps suffering citizens then the feeling that Democrats can’t get anything done will be pushed by Republicans resulting in voters choosing something/anything else.

He must be comfortable being in the minority because he doesn’t have to be held accountable for anything.

[bucolic_frolic]

7. I never thought they should end it

But they should restrict its use. It's too inflexible. The rights of the minority should be heard. Change is hamstrung if not aired. But limiting the filibuster's duration and frequency - like timeouts in football - might bring a lot of legislation to the floor.

[djacq]

8. This is why HR1 and HR4 must pass.

We need to elect more Democratic Senators.

[FBaggins]

9. And also why they won't

Neither can get 60 votes in the senate.

[WarGamer]

39. they're DOA.

[cannabis_flower]

10. With friends like this, who needs enemies!

[superpatriotman]

12. Why is our argument so weak

That we can’t change a single mind on the other side?

[Bettie]

13. It isn't about the argument or changing minds

it is about the other side. They will never cross the aisle to vote for anything that they did not write.

That's the rule of the Republican party: compliance above all.

[superpatriotman]

21. I disagree

Nt

[Bettie]

26. If you have evidence that they are willing to

pass legislation, please do share it.

I have seen none in years.

The only "compromise" they are willing to accept is for Democrats to enact their agenda whole cloth.

[Hotler]

27. Their hate for Democrats and our ideals. Repug voters want their

politicians to hurt us. That is why they liked the orange one so much, because he was all about being a mean asshole.

[Chainfire]

14. I will give you the Republican definition of never;

Never describes the time that when the Republicans control the House and the Presidency, but the Senate by only one vote. Then they can claim that, "Well, you always wanted to do away with it in the past."

[Efilroft Sul]

15. Waiting for those who say Manchin's detractors know zip about politics to chime in any moment...

[Celerity]

17. The filibuster hurts only Senate Democrats -- and Mitch McConnell knows that. The numbers don't lie.

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/100215175635

[Efilroft Sul]

19. I agree.

[Tom Rinaldo]

18. There is another election in two years. If Democrats can add to their Senate majority then...

and retain the House, Biden will still be President. The way to overcome Manchin's opposition to ending the Filibuster is to make his support for doing so unnecessary. More Republican Senate seats are up in 2022 than Democratic ones. If we increase our majority by two seats chances are good the filibuster can be killed, and then the second half of Biden's first term will be glorious.

[Celerity]

22. 'More Republican Senate seats are up in 2022 than Democratic ones.'

That is just the raw numbers, the actual 'in-play/at risk seats' are far closer (and possibly favour the Rethugs.)

Also, we are going into a 'first midterm for a Dem POTUS' election in 2022, and the last 2 (1994 and 2010) were utter disasters for us. In 2010 we lost a net 7 Senate seats and had a net loss of 63 House seats (versus where we were post 2008).

Before I continue, I do want to address another thing you said

The way to overcome Manchin's opposition to ending the Filibuster is to make his support for doing so unnecessary.

Even if we win 3 or 4 net seats, we are nowhere near 60, so filibusters will still work to crush us.


Back to the breakdown:

In order to neutralise both Manchin and Sinema (who is even more conservative than he is on some issues, but is very under the radar) we need a net +2 gain.

For us to win a net two gain we need to hold our 4 vulnerable seats (in order of threat, Warnock in GA, Cortez Masto in NV (especially if Gov. Sandoval runs), Hassan in NH (especially if Gov. Sununu runs), and Kelly in AZ, we dodged a bullet with Ducey refusing to run there) None of those will be easy at all, anyone claiming that they are locks for us is simply way out over their skis, especially as its the 1st midterms.

If we defend all our seats, we then need to win the two easiest open (PA and NC) seats.

The only other somewhat likely shot is beating that absolute piece of dogshit Ron Johnson in WI would allow us to lose one of the 4 and still have a 52-48 majority, but WI will be tough, the MAGAts are dug in like tics there and the KEY Milwaukee A-A vote is the hardest to turn out of most any major city, especially for off-POTUS-year elections.

FL is quite likely harder than WI (unless Trumpian shenanigans scupper Rubio) but is in the realm of possibility.

OH is a real stretch (only reason we have any hope is Portman retiring and Ryan running)

The rest (I have seen IN, IA, KY, KS, and MO talked up as real chances for us to flip, and I really disagree, those states are solid ruby Red now) are likely not happening, especially given our first midterms of our Dem POTUS record.


Bad potential wild card... VT

If Leahy retires (he is not in good heath atm, and is ageing out, he would be approaching (15 months away) 90 years old at the end of his next term if he runs again) and the very popular (he won by 41 points in 2020, 68% to 27%) Rethug Gov, Phil Scott runs, we may have a real dogfight on our hands.

[Autumn]

24. So basically we are fucked.

The more things change. the more they stay the same.

[Tom Rinaldo]

29. "Even if we win 3 or 4 net seats, we are nowhere near 60..."

My point was that if we can net a two seat gain, so that Dems hold a 52 to 48 majority in the Senate (with VP Harris as backup) that might be a sufficient margin to enable Democrats to nuke the filibuster, even with Manchin and Sinma siding with Republicans. Doing so just takes a bare majority vote, after which we no longer would need 60 votes in order to prevail on Biden's agenda.

I don't disagree on your rundown regarding the 2022 races as matters stand now. Well done. I don't fully agree regarding IA and KS however. They are not likely pickups, true, but Iowa has been a purple state in the recent past, and Kansas has a stronger than usual block of relatively moderate/sane Republicans relative to most other Red States. So, when all is said and done, there are several non tortured paths open for Democrats to gain at least two Senate seats in 2022. Certainly is is plausible that we could do so.

Prior modern history regarding mid term elections does run against us as a whole when Democrats enter the midterms controlling most if not all of government. But politics as usual has undergone upheavals of major earthquake proportions in recent years. The past may no longer be prologue. I can not remember such significant high level defections from a major political party as the Never Trump movement, since George Wallace Democrats. And Democrats are dominating on the issues this year. If Biden can deliver, all bets may be off about typical mid term voter preferences.

[Celerity]

30. There are at least 3 Dems completely against nuking the filibuster. Feinstein is the 3rd,

and there are several others who are sceptical. I do agree that that root is a legit path to attempt. Iowa is getting redder by the year, it is almost all Rethugs now in the Congressional delegation (Axne is the lone Dem left), and my hope is small there. It is rapidling going the way of MO and IN. Sebelius would again be our only real semi hope in KS, but she so far has said nothing about running. The last time a Dem senator was elected in Kansas was 1932.

[Tom Rinaldo]

32. Feinstein could step down before the 2022 election. There is pressure building for her to do so

Health issues have been raised, it's not just ideological pressure against her. All crystal balls are cloudy this far out, but the potential does exist that Democrats might be able to nuke the filibuster after the 2022 elections. I agree that to call it a likelihood though would be overly optimistic.

[WarGamer]

40. Feinstein is also against filibuster repeal.

Probably more.

[Celerity]

46. yes, I have been saying this (and listing some of the other possible ones against it) for a awhile

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

20. Gosh, Joe...Jesus understands very well why you refuse to end the filibuster.

And it makes him very sad.

[Autumn]

23. You need to understated we can replace you Joe. There are other states where we can get other seats

You can stay where you are, in the dime dozen bin.

[colsohlibgal]

25. Primary Him!

He is not much different than Republicans like Lisa Murkowski and Romney.

[Grins]

33. Blasphemy!!!!! #3 in the "thou shalt nots"

I wonder how the evangelical snake-handlers back how will take that?

(No I don’t. Not for a second.)

[timms139]

34. America has endured

12 years of Mitch blocking progress and now Manchin is taking over the duties.

[bdamomma]

43. Welcome to DU!

I just post the same comment. Manchin is a DINO.

[BarackTheVote]

36. So Manchin is dedicated to getting us routed in 22 and 24-

You know what? Just call his freaking bluff. If he wants to switch parties, more power to him—if he’s not gonna let us get anything worthwhile out of the Senate anyway, it’s better optics for Republicans to be in power so you can point at them for being obstructionists than for Democrats to be in power while getting nothing freaking done

I’m angry and frustrated, and we need need NEED to keep at least one chamber in 22 or our Democracy is kaputt and Manchin is personally putting that at risk.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

37. What does he not understand that people are tired of a Congress that accomplishes little because of

a handful of nut jobs?

[bdamomma]

44. it's all about

retaining power. We have to fight back, hard.

[LowerManhattanite]

42. We have to render him politically impotent by picking up WI & PA in 2022.

Take his “precious” vote out of the mix so it doesn’t matter. Then the creep’ll probably vote Dem because it won’t matter any more and he’ll have cover.

[Celerity]

47. NC with Jeff Jackson (who would have won in 2020) is more likely than WI (open seat as well)

[moondust]

45. Who is pulling his strings?

Some big donors who want to keep profiting bigly off slave wages? His daughter? I would think most of his voters in WV would strongly approve of ditching the filibuster if it leads to a better quality of life for them.

[jalan48]

48. So maintaining the filibuster is a really big deal to the average West Virginian?