AOC on passing the minimum wage bill.

[Autumn]

I agree with her. This is something that must be done. People can not live on $7-8 an hour. If it isn't raised it may well cost us in the next election

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Celerity]

1. Huge problem though. IF we did overrule it, we very likely lose Manchin and Sinema, and then it

goes down anyway.

[jorgevlorgan]

3. Honestly I would like to get them on record voting against a stimulus

And minimum wage if that's how they really feel. A large part of me, though, feels like they are playing chicken with peoples' lives for political gain and won't actually follow through with keeping people at poverty wages. If they did, their careers would likely be over.

[BlueLucy]

4. They have already said they would vote it down.

Manchin would likely get mad and become a republican in which case we lose the Senate. He already is unhappy about being pushed.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. Manchin won't switch parties- he barely beat his GOP opponent in 2018

He wouldn’t even win the GOP primary in 2024 if he switched parties.

Dems need to deliver on their promises to voters, and any Dem who obstructs must pay severe political consequences.

[BlueLucy]

17. It's a long shot

We have already delayed the passing of this bill 3 weeks trying to change the mind of the parliamentarian. Money for distributing vaccine is in there, money for hurting families. It can not be delayed for a longshot!

[jorgevlorgan]

21. Fire the parliamentarian or end the fillibuster.

Or overrule the parliamentarian with the VP. Those are basically our options if we want any good to happen. Otherwise we might be SOL. It isn't happening in a defense bill because Republicans will just hold it up until we stop pushing the issue.

[Autumn]

5. It is a conundrum. But we have got to be on record attempting to do it and those against it should

damn well be on record against it. Hiding behind "we just can't do it" will come back to bite us in the ass.

[Celerity]

8. I do not think Biden wants to risk setting a very recent precedent (1975 was the last time a

Senate Parliamentarian was overruled) of overruling (and thus encouraging the Rethugs to do it as well as soon as they regain Senate control) when the odds of it working are so slim. I think the same thinking goes into the argument for doing away completely with the filibuster. Until we are sure of maintaining Senate control, it is a large risk, and Biden is risk-adverse by nature. I think he looks out and sees a potential nightmare happening in 2024 or 2028, that being the Rethugs sweep POTUS, the Senate, and the House (the last two could happen in 2022 and continue onward) and then, with no filibuster, and no adherence to 50 years of going by the Parliamentarian's rulings, they run riot and perma-fuck the nation (or damn near).

[mvd]

10. Good points. I was thinking though that..

Manchin and Sinema are against the minimum wage being in reconciliation anyway. So maybe it wouldn’t hurt to overrule and get a vote - unless they get so mad they want to torpedo the whole thing. That has to be considered. I just hope we get some kind of increase in a separate bill if we can’t here. It is so vital to increase it.

Repukes don’t even bother to overrule the parliamentarian - they just fire them.

[Celerity]

11. I am sure Biden is talking to both Sinema and Manchin. I think that if we do not overrule, that is

perhaps a clue that they told Biden they would vote against the whole bill until the minimum wage comes out.

I completely disagree with both of them, btw, I am just attempting to explain things as best I can (which is not very well, as I lack true knowledge of what is going on behind closed doors and in their minds).

[Autumn]

12. And if by chance the republicans manage to torpedo everything he tries to do that benefit people

that will depress the vote in 2022 anyway. As it is, people here often sit those out. Look how many Dem voters stayed home in 2016 because Obama wasn't on the ticket.

[dsc]

58. there is no risk of a GOP without a filibuster

the GOP wants to do three things, one appoint nuts to all levels of government (can't filibuster), two pass tax cuts (again, can't be filibustered), and three increase defense spending (popular enough with the political classes that it won't be filibustered). Thus the GOP isn't hurt by the filibuster.

[Demsrule86]

2. No, it would take too long to do this. The Covid bill must pass this week or people lose

unemployment. We don't even know if we have the votes. I want unemployment raised, but we need a bigger majority to do it...so we can end the filibuster.

[matt819]

6. The Byrd rule

Is that like the McConnell rule, where a president can't nominate a Supreme Court Justice in the last year of his term?

Can't do that, it's against the rules. Who makes the rules? We do. Change the rules. We don't want to.

Can't do that, it's against the rules. Whose rule? A senator who died after about 150 years in office. Known for being a former Klansman and carrying a pocket version of the US Constitution. BTW, it wasn't a real rule. And besides, we don't want to.

Can't do that, it's never been done. Why not? No one knows. Is it against the rules? No. So do it.

This is such BS.

[lagomorph777]

18. Flip the Byrd to that stupid rule.

So many obscure "rules" are just layers of trickery. Screw it.

[mvd]

7. I agree. Overrule and get a vote

If it does not pass, there are negotiations that can be had to at least get some form of increase in a separate bill. If Sinema and Manchin won’t vote for the reconciliation bill with the minimum wage anyway, why not have a vote at least.

[lagomorph777]

19. And let the full force of voters' wrath come down on any (D) who opposes it.

[fescuerescue]

9. Why don't they just pass it straight out?

Instead of going the parliamentarian route?

Seems like we are over complicating this.

We have the house, senate and Presidency. Just pass it.

Done.

[Autumn]

13. That's what I think they should do. Like 70% of the people support it. Bernie had a stand alone

bill in Jan. I don't know where that one went.

[Donkees]

20. McConnell stalled the previous bill, so this is the reintroduced 'Raise the Wage Act'

[Autumn]

24. The one included with the Covid relief?

They should be able to do another stand alone pretty quick.

[Donkees]

34. Yes, the reintroduced 'Raise the Wage Act' was included in the 'American Rescue Plan'

https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/sanders-top-democrats-introduce-bill-raising-minimum-wage-to-15/

“But let me also say this. If we cannot get enough Republicans to vote for this legislation under regular order, we cannot take no for an answer.

“We must understand that the issue of starvation wages is a national emergency.

“We must raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour through budget reconciliation by a simple majority vote in the Senate.

“And, as the incoming Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, that is exactly what I am fighting to do.

[George II]

51. No, this is a much larger bill with the newest incarnation of the "Raise the Wage Act" slipped in...

It's the Rescue Act. And most Senators and Representatives realize the Raise the Wage Act is inappropriate in this bill.

[comradebillyboy]

15. They don't have the votes.

There aren’t 50 Democrats who will vote for it.

[fescuerescue]

25. They they need to be replaced

if they are going to act like Republicans.

[SoonerPride]

16. You can't pass a $15 minimum wage package with only 48 votes.

And that's all the Dems have.

We can't get it through because we don't have enough who support it.

Maybe they do a stand alone bill for $12.

But I doubt that passes either because we can't get cloture.

[bdamomma]

27. Why are Manchin

and Sinema holding the bill hostage???

[SoonerPride]

29. Because they are essentially republicans

But with a D behind their name.

If we had 62 Ds in the Senate we could do whatver wanted.

But we don't so we can't.

[bdamomma]

56. how

about ending the filibuster?

[SoonerPride]

57. They won't

That’s a nonstarter with Manchin

Sadly.

[Mr.Bill]

33. I doubt you couldn't find ten republicans that would vote to raise it 25 cents.

Many of them want to abolish the MW altogether.

[NurseJackie]

22. We can count. The votes aren't there.

[fescuerescue]

26. The Democrats voting against it - they need to be replaced

This just isn't acceptable behavior.

[NurseJackie]

38. OR... how about ADDING some Democrats by REPLACING Republicans?

Wouldn't that be better?

[fescuerescue]

55. It's not an either or

DO both.

Boot the Dems acting like Republicans.
Elect more Dems in the place of Republicans.

[George II]

23. If this is included in the bill, parliamentarian notwithstanding, the ENTIRE bill will fail....

Do we want that?

[NurseJackie]

40. This made me 🙄

We can't go home and tell our constituents that the minimum wage will remain a poverty wage because of the decision of an unelected parliamentarian.

She's right, you know. If anyone actually said that to their constituents (blaming it on the parliamentarian) it would be wrong. In reality, the parliamentarian's ruling is very likely SAVING the the entire bill and SAVING the Democrats from the blame and humiliation that would accompany a failure like this.

Do we want that?

I'm going to out on a limb here and sayyyy: NO.

[whistler162]

28. So AOC write the bill!

[MichMan]

30. Why not just pass it at the State level?

States and cities are free to pass any minimum wage above the current Federal min wage at any time.

Doesn't require the Federal government to do anything.

[Mr.Bill]

32. Exactly. One size fits all 50 states doesn't apply here.

I would like to ask what the minimum wage is in OAC's district. I'm sure she doesn't have to hear her constituents complain it's only 7.25.

[George II]

42. Many states already have laws in effect that will raise it to $15 or more sooner than this proposal.

Here is the list of states and their 2020 and 2021 minimum wage (most have further increases in 2022 and 2023 and 2024, etc.)

Screen shot is fuzzy, sorry!

[flying_wahini]

31. Hoping Biden team pushes it thru and SOON! NO point in waiting 3 more years!

[mcar]

35. You are willing to see the Rescue Act fail?

You do realize that there are other ways to get the minimum wage raised, right?

I'm so old I remember that HRC was pushing for $12/hour to be built up from there - wonder if we'd have that if she got elected. But, some on the far left said no way, $15 or nothing.

We got nothing.

I'm also so old I remember a certain progressive senator supported working with the Former Guy to get a $10 minimum wage passed, only to be rebuffed, of course.

Now we're back to all or nothing, Kill the Bill.

What a great way to kill us in 2022.

[Autumn]

36. Thanks for the history lesson. Odd how raising the minimum wage is always rebuffed.

There are a lot of great, well not really great, more like kind of sad ways, to kill us in 2022. Not raising the minimum wage is one of them. Close to 70% of the electorate support it. That includes about 64% of registered Republicans. But 2 Senators from red states are opposing it.

[mcar]

37. Close to 70% or more of the electorate support the Rescue Act

Should we ignore that and only focus on one aspect of it?

[Autumn]

39. Of course not, that's silly. Did anyone say that? It's passed the House,now we wait on the Senate

to schedule a vote. Unlike Republicans, Democrats can usually walk, talk and chew gum at the same time.

[mcar]

43. Educate me, then

How do we overrule the Parliamentarian, get past at lead 2 D objections, keep the min wage in the bill and get it passed? And quickly, because people desperately need help.

[Autumn]

44. That's been gone over several times by others . Yes people desperately need help. Urgently

Maybe next week from what I understand?


From the OP, I'm trusting that Democratic Senators and Representatives are not lying when they say it can be done. YMMV.

Link to tweet

[mcar]

45. They say not one word about how Manchin and Sinema

will vote for this. Not one. Yes, it can be done. That doesn't mean the bill will have the votes.

I trust Biden and Harris.

[Autumn]

46. He could use the carrot and the stick approach. Or he could go all LBJ on them. nt

[mcar]

47. Yeah, sure, ok

[Autumn]

49. It seemed to work really well here.

https://www.rollcall.com/2021/03/01/west-virginia-and-manchin-to-get-a-boost-from-mine-cleanups/

West Virginia will be one of the main beneficiaries of the more than $260 million for coal mine reclamation grants announced Monday by the Interior Department, less than a week after Joe Manchin, the state's senior senator, endorsed President Joe Biden's nominee to run the department, Deb Haaland.

States such as West Virginia and Wyoming that have suffered the most from dramatic declines in coal demand will get most of that money through grants that aim to provide an economic boost to communities that long depended on the mines for their livelihood.

Laura Daniel Davis, Interior's principal deputy assistant secretary for land and minerals management, said in a release that the grants boost local economies while addressing environmental damage.

"The job of cleaning up our lands and waters and revitalizing our communities doesn't end with this round of grant announcements — or the next," Davis said. "We look forward to working with Congress to ensure that we can make the needed investments to clean up abandoned mines, as well as orphan oil and gas wells, across the country."

Both got what they wanted. When it comes to politics there is no such thing as coincidences.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

54. In the real world one needs the votes to pass something

We lack the votes in the Senate. On the Last Word last night, it was explained how that overriding the parliamentarian is meaningless unless you have the votes. If VP Harris overruled the Parliamentarian, McConnell would propose an amendment to strike the minimum wage and this vote would pass 52 to 48. We do not have the votes to pass this amendment right now in the real world

[George II]

48. "History lesson" notwithstanding....

.... there are two important things to keep in mind that many seem to overlook:

1. If somehow the $15/hour amendment finds its way into the Rescue Act, it will be voted down 48-52, killing the entire bill, not just the $15/hour amendment

2. If somehow the vote DOES go 50-50 (very unlikely), and Harris breaks the tie and it passes, it will wind up in the courts within days, tying up all the relief measures contained in the bill for many weeks or even months

In other words, as you point out, it'll be all or nothing with about a 99% chance of nothing.

It's time to bite the bullet, present the bill without the questionably "legal" $15 minimum wage amendment, and pass it this week.

THEN, do a little bit of work, write a stand-alone bill, fall back on the relationships built over the decades, and work hard to get fellow Senators to vote for it. It won't be easy, but that's why they get $174,000 per year.

[mcar]

50. Exactly

I really thought we'd gotten over the "all or nothing" approach after the Obama years.

Me, I'd like to see our Reps and Senators actually working at getting something like this accomplished rather than just tweeting about it.

[betsuni]

52. +1

[betsuni]

53. Oh yes, it was $15-only-or-you're-not-progressive purity test and then $10 with Trump

suddenly didn't mean Big Pharma Satan corrupt or whatever: "He's talked about the collapsing working class in America. He's right. ... Donald Trump is nobody's fool. He is a smart guy, you are going to see some of us working with him."

[theneworiginal]

41. Maybe reduce the $15 a bit and make it REALLY uncomfortable to vote down.

If the relief bill passes and people benefit, Dems will have an easier time of it in the next election. Then go bigger when we have the muscle. It's politics.