NBC/Marist - Just Out: FL +1 Obama VA +1 Romney OH +6 Obama

[kpete]

NBC/Marist - The Firewall Holds
Just out
FL +1 Obama
VA +1 Romney
OH +6 Obama

Without Ohio and Wisconsin, no path to 270 for Romney!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/11/1142964/-NBC-Marist-The-Firewall-Holds
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/10/14352371-nbcwsjmarist-poll-romney-gains-in-key-swing-states?lite

[ProSense]

1. Details

Florida

LV Obama 48 (+1) Mitt 47 (+1)
RV Obama 49 (+1) Mitt 45 (+2)

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/news/Marist%20FL%2010-12.pdf


Ohio

LV Obama 51 (even) Mitt 45 (+2)
RV Obama 50 (-1) Mitt 45 (+2)

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/news/Marist%20OH%2010-12.pdf


Virgina

LV Obama 47 (-1) Mitt 48 (+2)
RV Obama 47 (-1) Mitt 47 (+2)

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/news/Marist%20VA%2010-12.pdf

Considering the hype, this is not good news for Mitt, a bounce that looks more like noise.

[Dawson Leery]

2. The RV numbers suggest that Democrats became discouraged after the debate.

GOTV + better debates = strong turnout.

[LisaL]

8. Not in OH, according to that one.

Apparently LV are more energized in OH.

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. Your Virginia numbers are incorrect in the post

[ProSense]

7. Fixed, thanks. n/t

[speedoo]

5. "a bounce that looks more like noise"

And not the "game changing" result that some here are promoting.

[Dawson Leery]

9. Romneybot has energized some teaklan types.

He has made gains, though they are not enough to change the game.
Strong debate performances + effective ads + GOTV = WIN!

[flamingdem]

3. Me like OH

FL and VA bound to improve

[BlueDemKev]

6. This is NOT good...

We were doing well in Virginia and Florida before the debate debacle last week. Assuming we get shut out in the South (meaning we lose both FL and VA), Obama MUST win OH, MI, and WI, plus he must pick up at least ONE of these three: IA, CO, or NV.

If we lose OH (God Forbid), we must then sweep IA, CO, NV, and NH which will put us over the top by a whisker at 272 electoral votes.

[ProSense]

10. The President was ahead by one point in FL before the debate

The other polls moved about a point or two.

All things considered, these are damn good numbers.

[BlueDemKev]

13. Momentum seems to have shifted, though

No question we have an easier path to 270 than Romney. The problem is we were looking pretty strong until after last week's debate and the momentum has clearly shifted. NYT's 538 website had Obama with an 80%+ chance winning just prior to the debate, and last night it was down to 67%. 4 to 1 odds became 2 to 1 odds in almost the blink of an eye.

We HAVE GOT to get the momentum back. One more shitty debate performance by either Obama or Biden, and we may be in deep trouble.

As a person with a so-called "pre-existing condition", I cannot afford to have the Affordable Care Act repealed (or severely scaled back). And when I think about the potential vacancies on the Supreme Court...we MUST WIN this election!!!

[Shivering Jemmy]

11. You are incorrect

It is a quite nice result, all things considered.

[Sugarcoated]

12. He's got a good lead in Ohio

and he's gonna win Wisconsin and Michigan. I personally think Nevada is gonna be a win, Iowa is next likely, Colorado will be super close. It's actually not looking good for Mittfalca.