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grantcart

(53,061 posts)
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 12:47 PM Oct 2012

DU Exclusive: Gravis Marketing exposed as a fraud Part I

Last edited Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:40 AM - Edit history (1)

Gravis Marketing wants you to believe that this is Doug Kaplan



http://gravismarketing.com/?gclid=COz0t-aY77ICFUjhQgodlDcAew

Meet Doug Kaplan



http://dougkaplan.net/Political_Specialist.html

My interest was peaked when gravismarketing entered a thread with this very lame response on a thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021425136#post3

Didn't seem like a very professional response.

So I started a lengthy background check using public and private sources to track the principles behind Gravis Marketing, all of their public appearances and have come to the conclusion that Gravis Marketing is a complete fraud. Nate Silver and Real Clear Politics have all been punked.

Want to have an impact on the election or do you want to try and make some money out of it then start up a website and start issuing press releases with poll numbers. Find industry averages and publish it on a PR piece. In a poll hungry environment you will be quoted and if you do it regularly you will be put into the regular rotation. And you never have to make a single phone call.

Gravis Marketing promises to be the cheapest in the business. Well there is one way to undercut the others, save on direct expenses like a telemarketing center.

It triggered Daily Kos to ask the question who are these guys and nothing came substantial came up.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/11/1130526/-Weird-Obama-Romney-Poll-I-Need-your-Input

This is like the Sherlock's case of the dog that didn't bark. Check out the three 'officers' of the company and nothing comes up. No academic, professional or occupational hits.

They are

Doug Kaplan
Chad Miller
Bobby Hymel.

They have between 2 to 4 employees.

As a Managing Partner in one of US largest consulting companies between 1994 and 2000 I was thousands of business resumes. This is one of the thinest I have ever seen.

http://dougkaplan.net/Political_Specialist.html

So he promotes himself as a political expert and national pollster.

His public spots? One is with some small failed local Limbaugh wannabe in Florida by the name of Ed Dean. The other is on the Voice of Russia, the Russian Government's English language channel and a political show called: Carmen Russell-Sluchansky's Campaign Connection.

He is quoted there as a national US Pollster and Political analyst.

You can listen to this twerp here:

http://english.ruvr.ru/2012/01/20/64250633.html

You can start to listen to him at the 5 minute mark. His comments have all of the sophistication of a poli sci major having a beer induced bull session with a bunch of his friends trying to sound like they are on the inside. Pay special attention to his rambling inarticulate explanation of why South Carolina is important.

He sounds completely uninformed for a pollster. He seems unaware the South Carolina had special importance before because of the heavy front loading of the Republican schedule with winner take all primaries that made it very difficult to be viable after SC if you didn't score in Iowa or NH. He seems unaware of the substantial rules changes that had a dramatic impact on the Republican Primary schedule and dynamics.

I could match his numbers with even better numbers and, like him, not make a single phone call.

Next there is the structure of their business model. Go to any other polling company and the political polls are just a small part of a larger business, usually in doing polling for marketing of consumer products. Face it the general elections only show up every 4 years so you can't make a lot of money there. In fact most polling companies publish polls as a loss leader so that they can attract commercial customers.

None of this exists at Gravis.

But they do have testimonials, all politically related.

There is "Cindy L" in Oregon and "Chris Young" in Rhode Island, both very satisfied and anonymous.

Mike Hardin is very happy with "Doug and the rest of the folks" at Gravis (pretty impressive for a 2-4 employee company).

Mike is also a political consultant (probably a roommate from college) but if you google Mike Hardin political consultant all you get is the Gravis referral page, and this letter to the editor in Sacramento:



http://www.sacbee.com/2012/06/01/4532351/state-officials-pay-cut.html

The Democratic legislative leadership makes me sick. How dare they place themselves above the thousands of state employees who suffered through furloughs for almost two years and face them again. Speaker John A. Perez derides the California Citizens Compensation Commission. Of course, this is a blip in terms of the budget mess. But why not suffer together through this recession? The political scientists quoted throughout the article are no better. What are they thinking?



Now there is some very sophisticated political analysis.

Leaving us with a single actual political candidate who endorses Gravis Marketing.

And he is a 'Democrat', Chris Benjamin.

Except it turns out that Benjamin is also a fraud:



http://thesource.typepad.com/thesource/2010/06/questions-being-raised-about-chris-benjamin-financial-mismanagement.html

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/06/01/4532351/state-officials-pay-cut.html#storylink=cpy

After it was revealed that Chris Benjamin, a municipal judge and part time political consultant, is having serious personal financial problems, questions are being raised about his ability to manage public funds. Benjamin is most infamous for switching parties to run for the State Senate as a Democrat in 2008.



Either Benjamin was one of these guys that takes money to run as a Democrat so that the Republican can win easily or he ran as a Democrat because he thought he might make money it doesn't really matter.

And that is Gravis Marketing's great success and only identified public client.

So Nate, Huffington Post, Real Clear Politics have all been punked.

And the right wing blogs are running around with all of these wonderful numbers, and some at DU get their chain pulled.

Doug probably hasn't made any money off of it yet but next time around the Republicans will be happy to throw some bucks his way to get some good PR numbers.

Until then Gravis remains 'non partisan' lol.

Now you know Gravis is a fraud.

I know Gravis is a fraud.

The media can pick up this work and get a story out of it.

Tabbi reads DU and he may have got interest in the KB Toys from one of my articles so this would be a fun story for him, how many other pollsters are punking the media.

I have done most of the work already so some journalist can take all of the credit, just give a mention to DU.

Now Doug Kaplan is going to scream like a stuck pig.

Well all a good investigating reporter has to do is ask to see his W-2s for all the people making the calls and all of the phone bills for all of the calls. Check back on every poll he made and ask to see the telephone bills for all of the calls, I know my bill lists every call I made. Or do you think that they all used the same Vonage line, lol.

Gravis Marketing is a fraud.

Doug Kaplan is a fraud.

And until all of their records have been published and checked that's how they should be noted.

Just another notch for DU fettering out right wing bull shit.

(if someone could take the time to send this to real clear politics, nate silver and post it at Daily Kos, I would appreciate it. I have to move today. On to Tucson.)
199 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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DU Exclusive: Gravis Marketing exposed as a fraud Part I (Original Post) grantcart Oct 2012 OP
You did your homework my friend. Good for you and great post. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #1
Thank you BumRushDaShow Oct 2012 #2
Get thee to the greatest page malaise Oct 2012 #3
Do I Get A Shout Out For Smoking Him Out? DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #7
Indeed! LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #44
LOL malaise Oct 2012 #45
It was your "clown" label and his idiotic response that got my interest. grantcart Oct 2012 #50
And you really went to town with your research. Indpndnt Oct 2012 #108
it was just going to be a little funny thread in Meta grantcart Oct 2012 #140
Yes, you do sweetie! Cha Oct 2012 #78
You sure do! And I see the clown's account is still active here. Indpndnt Oct 2012 #107
Shout out! tavalon Oct 2012 #133
Indeed. Impressive work. freshwest Oct 2012 #179
Great work. jsr Oct 2012 #4
I can forward this to some people jsmirman Oct 2012 #5
The First Photo Is Stock Art. DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #6
An analogy comes to mind Cha Oct 2012 #82
Thanks. And welcome to Arizona. frazee Oct 2012 #8
welcome to DU! renate Oct 2012 #15
Thank you. frazee Oct 2012 #40
Great job, grantcart! janx Oct 2012 #9
I did a Google search on 'Mr. Kaplan' (first photo) and it appears to be a stock image. CurtEastPoint Oct 2012 #10
Using Stock Art On A Web Page Is Pretty Amateurish DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #20
Well done, grantcart. speedoo Oct 2012 #11
too damn funny rufus dog Oct 2012 #12
Investigative journalism. LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #13
Fabulous sleuthing! lunatica Oct 2012 #14
well done! renate Oct 2012 #16
One Small Point. He's Allegedly A Robocaller So He Wouldn't Need Callers DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #17
He claims to have a call center for hire too: beac Oct 2012 #26
They employ a special Aerows Oct 2012 #67
still need a call center to listen to the reponses, tabulate, etc grantcart Oct 2012 #71
Maybe he hires prisoners--twelve cents an hour! nt MADem Oct 2012 #183
EPIC reasearching tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #18
Great work! BTW, did you notice their "WHY US" page beac Oct 2012 #19
"Why us?" I already know the Cha Oct 2012 #83
top tears... oldsmoboi Oct 2012 #197
shaking head bigtree Oct 2012 #21
Just wow! DU is awesome! longship Oct 2012 #22
Nice work titaniumsalute Oct 2012 #23
I expected to see a pic of Jeff Gannon there. grasswire Oct 2012 #24
I thought that's who Mike HARDin was alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #57
Excellent research. Grateful for Hope Oct 2012 #25
Oops... n/t porphyrian Oct 2012 #27
Nice work, grantcart. I'm wondering now if the dude is posting here on DU. Hmmm. lamp_shade Oct 2012 #28
fantastic flamingdem Oct 2012 #29
K & R !!! WillyT Oct 2012 #30
Link to first arrival at DU on Sept. 4th of "Gravismarketing" DURHAM D Oct 2012 #31
I remember being in that thread Aerows Oct 2012 #68
He got on that thread too..defending donations Cha Oct 2012 #85
Good job, figured as much. Ikonoklast Oct 2012 #32
Excellent work, which ProSense Oct 2012 #33
Real poll: Post-Debate Colorado Polls Shows 4-Point Obama Lead ProSense Oct 2012 #39
HA! nm Cha Oct 2012 #88
Excellent question, ProSense.. If grantcart can Cha Oct 2012 #87
Great piece, thanks AnnieK401 Oct 2012 #34
What an impressive report, grantcart!! Control-Z Oct 2012 #35
Busted! Bwahahaha!!! PotatoChip Oct 2012 #36
You are a hero sir! berni_mccoy Oct 2012 #37
They donated to the Romney campaign Aerows Oct 2012 #38
Excellent detective work Grantcart Generic Other Oct 2012 #41
Nice Work.... what kills me is he uses the photo you posted on his website (the one of him)... trailmonkee Oct 2012 #42
Is it un-Democratic to want to punch his lights out? superpatriotman Oct 2012 #43
Thank you, grandcart. gademocrat7 Oct 2012 #46
Sorry, grantcart gademocrat7 Oct 2012 #49
I found a blog with Kaplan trying to defend himself in the comments starroute Oct 2012 #47
You are so right about Kaplan's 'semi-literate' responses. PotatoChip Oct 2012 #77
Anonymous posted that there is a money trail / Republican paid operative. LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #86
If he was being paid for campaign services starroute Oct 2012 #110
I just did the google street view thingie for DURHAM D Oct 2012 #48
Cross-posted at DKos here berni_mccoy Oct 2012 #51
I see it now has 52 comments. nt DURHAM D Oct 2012 #127
Yeah, it was easy to see when he posted here. JNelson6563 Oct 2012 #52
Dude is still a member... trumad Oct 2012 #53
Well, the next time he shows up on a thread Cha Oct 2012 #89
wow....+1,000,000 SoapBox Oct 2012 #54
Fans of Gravis on DU often say "We know it leans GOP, but we need the full data set..." alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #55
From his website in 2010.... pkdu Oct 2012 #56
A "freelance professional" alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #58
My Fave line too!.....he left out " I had also graduated from Crayola University" nt pkdu Oct 2012 #64
I know.. I had to read that Cha Oct 2012 #91
"By the age of 14, I had read several books." mrs_p Oct 2012 #100
gravismarketing.com is hiding behind a Domain Privacy Service IDemo Oct 2012 #59
Hmmmm..... Aerows Oct 2012 #74
Hmmmm ..... indeed n/t dmr Oct 2012 #128
Excellent work. Is there a way to send this to Rachel, Al Sharpton, Big Ed or even to the sabrina 1 Oct 2012 #60
stopped for gas. I waive all copyright. any use OK. grantcart Oct 2012 #65
Thanks extremely, grantcart et DU al, for this case study on a vital topic, polling as a business, patrice Oct 2012 #61
Great work! budkin Oct 2012 #62
Wow! Thanks for all You did!! hue Oct 2012 #63
good work blogslut Oct 2012 #66
One of my brother's fraternity brothers LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #69
thanks for ferreting out this loser and..... madrchsod Oct 2012 #70
If you have a journal, please save it there so it will be easy to find eridani Oct 2012 #72
Bravo. You do the DU proud grantcart. great white snark Oct 2012 #73
Well done! Whovian Oct 2012 #75
Doug Kaplan sounds Romneyesque.. no wonder he's Cha Oct 2012 #76
Bravo!!!! K&R n/t OneGrassRoot Oct 2012 #79
Wow. Just wow. greatauntoftriplets Oct 2012 #80
Too lazy to go further but 6 out of 6 pages on Gravis were all updated same day (JUNE 3,2012) Progressive dog Oct 2012 #81
keep kicking this nt grasswire Oct 2012 #84
K&R classof56 Oct 2012 #90
There's a trail that seems to lead to I Marketing Co. starroute Oct 2012 #92
Kaplan and his pal Jake Wood were in the junk fax business starroute Oct 2012 #94
Wow. n/t janx Oct 2012 #96
LOL - what a group DURHAM D Oct 2012 #98
I love "Tony Arrigoni" alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #101
Complaints about Kaplan at Rifoff Report starroute Oct 2012 #99
Oh -- Kaplan also has his very own PAC starroute Oct 2012 #95
Here are links for that Disney case starroute Oct 2012 #109
Brilliant work muriel_volestrangler Oct 2012 #118
Kaplan seems to have a lot more ventures starroute Oct 2012 #114
It just get better and better. DURHAM D Oct 2012 #115
Discovery Marketing was also in the fax spam business starroute Oct 2012 #117
And here's an FCC warning about the spam faxes starroute Oct 2012 #121
kick janx Oct 2012 #93
So - Doug Kaplan = dchill Oct 2012 #97
Great job on this...thank you. AikidoSoul Oct 2012 #102
Good luck. I used to live on Craycroft and Broadway in Tucson Panasonic Oct 2012 #103
I'm forwarding this to a friend at the NYT jsmirman Oct 2012 #104
If the Internet had been around in 1968, world history would have been changed for the better! hedgehog Oct 2012 #105
Patting myself on the back for seeing this early alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #106
Wow. Good work. woo me with science Oct 2012 #111
Kicked and Recommended rury Oct 2012 #112
On 2nd viewing I realize he looks like John Lovitz, Jr. Whovian Oct 2012 #113
Impressive ferreting! Plucketeer Oct 2012 #116
Very well done! Denzil_DC Oct 2012 #119
Thank you Grantcart. Kurovski Oct 2012 #120
Great job, another GOTCHA! BrainMann1 Oct 2012 #122
k&r for exposure. Nicely done. n/t Laelth Oct 2012 #123
Sent to Sam Wang - along with some math fiorello Oct 2012 #124
Nice analysis. I get similar frazee Oct 2012 #135
A more appropriate test than my earlier one is probably a simple frazee Oct 2012 #137
Great work, all Americans are indebted to you. Scuba Oct 2012 #125
You never know something until you "know it" reflection Oct 2012 #126
knew gravis was fraud outsideworld Oct 2012 #129
I Am Impressed With The Speed This Clown Made Himself A Player DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #130
K&R ... Trajan Oct 2012 #131
Doug Kaplan can't be doing very well formercia Oct 2012 #132
Okay, someone has to be shallow. Ruby the Liberal Oct 2012 #134
LOL cyberswede Oct 2012 #175
You too! Ruby the Liberal Oct 2012 #176
Action required: reflection Oct 2012 #136
On second thought: let them waste their money! fiorello Oct 2012 #143
Well done. Moondog Oct 2012 #138
Very impressive, grantcart, thank you so much Samantha Oct 2012 #139
Silver cited Gravis in an article on Saturday as evidence of the Romney "bump" Denzil_DC Oct 2012 #142
Thank you so much Denzil_DC Samantha Oct 2012 #146
You're welcome, Samantha Denzil_DC Oct 2012 #147
This is getting good. Good work, fiorello. LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #160
You outdid yourself, my friend! thevoiceofreason Oct 2012 #141
More repube lies. More repube fraud. More repube cheating. More repube democracy-trashing NBachers Oct 2012 #144
Absolutely outstanding stuff, grantcart! ... Thank you. Bozita Oct 2012 #145
This is real investigative journalism... Science Geek Oct 2012 #148
Nice work...btw Ken Burch Oct 2012 #149
He is a model. He might not even be American. MADem Oct 2012 #184
Great work! Thank you! highplainsdem Oct 2012 #150
Awesome work! Is this being sent to HuffPo? and Silver? progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #151
yes, this is awesome. I really hope this has been sent to CNN and everywhere else anneboleyn Oct 2012 #152
The idea that one jerk could depress votes or otherwise impact the election anneboleyn Oct 2012 #153
What about "We Ask America" AnnieK401 Oct 2012 #154
That one is run by the right wing Illinois Manufacturers Association MessiahRp Oct 2012 #155
Thanks! AnnieK401 Oct 2012 #167
I did some research based on your post: Raine1967 Oct 2012 #181
Sweet, get the word out! MessiahRp Oct 2012 #186
I've been trying! Raine1967 Oct 2012 #187
Holy Crap. I knew that asswipe was a liar. Jennicut Oct 2012 #156
This Colorado poll, however, is NOT "total crap"! Moses2SandyKoufax Oct 2012 #157
WEASKAMERICA. A-Schwarzenegger Oct 2012 #158
That is one... Vestigial_Sister Oct 2012 #159
I first noticed Gravis when suddenly Allen was up by 5 or 7 against Kaine underpants Oct 2012 #161
Yep. myrna minx Oct 2012 #162
I LOVE detective work such as yours! WinkyDink Oct 2012 #163
I Was Part Of This Great Unraveling So I Would Like To Add One Caveat DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #164
Agreed - I think it's his competence and methods that are open to question muriel_volestrangler Oct 2012 #166
Small Correction DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #171
Yes we can until he proves otherwise. grantcart Oct 2012 #174
what a low state "media" has fallen to Maeve Oct 2012 #177
Do they have a "polling" major at Devry? I think not. MADem Oct 2012 #185
dKos has it Coyotl Oct 2012 #165
k & r. TxVietVet Oct 2012 #168
Meet Chris Young - Rhode Island chemp Oct 2012 #169
Bookmarking for GOOD future reference. Sheepshank Oct 2012 #170
K & R Scurrilous Oct 2012 #172
I was trying to do that google image search thingy Historic NY Oct 2012 #173
Kicking in case anyone has missed it. nt Ilsa Oct 2012 #178
Wow, excellent work! Spazito Oct 2012 #180
REC 348--if I could rec it a thousand times I would. MADem Oct 2012 #182
Possible proof dawolf Oct 2012 #188
Nice work! Indpndnt Oct 2012 #189
Well, well, well... I do believe we discussed this a month ago! Raster Oct 2012 #190
Thanks for that, hadn't seen it at the time grantcart Oct 2012 #191
I had my suspicions. Your research and tenacity do us PROUD! Raster Oct 2012 #192
That and not having a TV after a move gave me a lot of time with nothing to do grantcart Oct 2012 #193
Move to Tucson? Raster Oct 2012 #195
Yep grantcart Oct 2012 #198
Love Tucson. I have family there and go back a couple times a year. Raster Oct 2012 #199
And people, don't miss part 2 of this story!!!! Maeve Oct 2012 #194
Kick Lucy Fer Oct 2012 #196

BumRushDaShow

(125,315 posts)
2. Thank you
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 12:51 PM
Oct 2012

because more and more sleeper cells have been activated here on DU and it will only get worse unless the crap is debunked.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
140. it was just going to be a little funny thread in Meta
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 07:43 PM
Oct 2012

When I listened to the Russian radio show I knew he was a fake.

Didn't have a clue of why SC had such an impact.

Then when I saw that his only possible client was the phony Dem in Missouri I kmew I struck gold.

Cha

(294,396 posts)
78. Yes, you do sweetie!
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:58 PM
Oct 2012
I totally missed that thread. I saw the one about "60% Blacks supporting mittLies
' and dismissed gravis as blatantly bogus.

"Clown" was too kind.

Indpndnt

(2,391 posts)
107. You sure do! And I see the clown's account is still active here.
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:12 PM
Oct 2012

Does that mean we can look forward to poking it with sticks when it returns? I love the little farting noises they make when we do. I guess that's what passes for communicating in clown world for the repubs these days.

CurtEastPoint

(18,474 posts)
10. I did a Google search on 'Mr. Kaplan' (first photo) and it appears to be a stock image.
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 12:57 PM
Oct 2012

LiberalAndProud

(12,799 posts)
13. Investigative journalism.
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 12:59 PM
Oct 2012
Great work, grantcart!


Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec
(because I can only hit the button once)

renate

(13,776 posts)
16. well done!
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:01 PM
Oct 2012


And how extra impressive that you did all this right before a big move. Hope it all goes well!

beac

(9,992 posts)
26. He claims to have a call center for hire too:
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:10 PM
Oct 2012
http://gravismarketing.com/call-center-services.html

With a "full team" and "equipment and staffing", allowing them to make "hundreds (even thousands) of calls per day, per employee", no less.
 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
67. They employ a special
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:24 PM
Oct 2012

psychic technology that allows them to reach out of voters without speaking to them or otherwise contacting them in what is now an outdated mode of communication known as "words"

tarheelsunc

(2,117 posts)
18. EPIC reasearching
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:05 PM
Oct 2012

Thanks for posting this. I've always looked at their numbers and suspected they weren't quite right, and your research has proven that. For all the talk of skewing polls, the right seems to have no problem with these frauds putting out magic numbers. They obviously didn't watch Sesame Street when they were kids.

beac

(9,992 posts)
19. Great work! BTW, did you notice their "WHY US" page
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:05 PM
Oct 2012

only says "Coming Soon"??? http://gravismarketing.com/why_us.html

Yeah, it's a sign of "Top-Tier Sotware and Systems" when part of your webpage is still under construction!



ETA: I was going to correct my "Sotware" typo, but decided it actually describes Gravis' services perfectly.

Cha

(294,396 posts)
83. "Why us?" I already know the
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:10 PM
Oct 2012

answer! If you want sociopaths like mitt romney to be ahead getting 60% of the Black vote, for pete's sake, we're your guys!



oldsmoboi

(1 post)
197. top tears...
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:46 PM
Oct 2012

"top-tier sotware and systems" yet they are using Bluehost.com

The domain name was registered on April 21st, 2010... not many elections since then to need polling on.
The domain registrant information went private in June of this year. I wonder why.

Anyone with a paid account on DomainTools.com could get the Whois history for the domain name and even MORE information.

 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
68. I remember being in that thread
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:27 PM
Oct 2012

and immediately telling him he was biased, and one of those fraudulent companies that tried to make it a horserace. Well, you can see it all now, and it appears I was right on target

Cha

(294,396 posts)
85. He got on that thread too..defending donations
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:16 PM
Oct 2012

for Marc Rubio..that's all I needed to see. DU has been some tough learning curve for gravis.

Ikonoklast

(23,973 posts)
32. Good job, figured as much.
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:17 PM
Oct 2012

I posted in that htread, looked up the company, and laughed.

Justs another quick-buck scammer looking to fleece gullible Republicans.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
33. Excellent work, which
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:22 PM
Oct 2012

proves that "fair and balanced" is creating the impression that psychos rule this country. Lying is Genius. Greed is good. Vague is brilliant. Cheating is American.

Nate factored in this bullshit poll that shows Romney winning the black vote..

Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In CO 60%-40%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251123534

Here's Nate:

There were few state polls published on Saturday, but a Gravis Marketing poll of Colorado also showed a sharp reversal toward Mr. Romney. He led in its newest survey, which was conducted on Thursday after the debate, by 3.5 percentage points. Although Gravis Marketing polls have had a very strong Republican lean so far this cycle, the trend in the poll is nevertheless extremely favorable for Mr. Romney, since he had trailed Mr. Obama by roughly five percentage points in a poll it conducted in September.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/

Now, that was a nice way of saying the poll is bullshit, but why the hell is Nate Silver giving these polls credibility? The poll is ludicrous.

If the OP can expose a fraudulent polling company, why can't the MSM?

Still, if they want to take these absurd polls seriously an increase Republican delusion, so be it.

Just because Republicans are complaining about the polls doesn't mean polls by fraudsters have to be given merit.




Cha

(294,396 posts)
87. Excellent question, ProSense.. If grantcart can
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:20 PM
Oct 2012

expose a fraudulent polling company why can't Nate Silver?!

Control-Z

(15,681 posts)
35. What an impressive report, grantcart!!
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:23 PM
Oct 2012

If I ever meet a man that inspires me to date again, I want you to check him out for me first!!

Generic Other

(28,979 posts)
41. Excellent detective work Grantcart
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:28 PM
Oct 2012

You have a sense of how organizations do hiring and background checks that sounds like you have experience in this field.

What lowlifes republicans must rely on to herd the sheep.

trailmonkee

(2,681 posts)
42. Nice Work.... what kills me is he uses the photo you posted on his website (the one of him)...
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:28 PM
Oct 2012

on his consulting website....it just screams dufus?

superpatriotman

(6,210 posts)
43. Is it un-Democratic to want to punch his lights out?
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:29 PM
Oct 2012

He has that kind of face I just want to, you know, punch.

starroute

(12,977 posts)
47. I found a blog with Kaplan trying to defend himself in the comments
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:35 PM
Oct 2012

This is from a few weeks ago, when people simply thought Gravis was heavily biased in its sampling -- and even then they were ripping it apart. Kaplan's own semi-literate responses are particularly interesting.

http://www.angrybearblog.com/2012/09/gravis-marketing-polls-and-reporting-ii.html

PotatoChip

(3,186 posts)
77. You are so right about Kaplan's 'semi-literate' responses.
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:51 PM
Oct 2012

Another good find. It appears that even a hint of criticism smokes him out.

That blog btw, was an interesting read. Thanks starroute!

LiberalAndProud

(12,799 posts)
86. Anonymous posted that there is a money trail / Republican paid operative.
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:16 PM
Oct 2012

Besides campaign contributions, what money trail would there be?

starroute

(12,977 posts)
110. If he was being paid for campaign services
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:15 PM
Oct 2012

That would be in the FEC filings of whatever campaigns were paying him.

There's also his own PAC, which I mentioned elsewhere in this thread.

DURHAM D

(32,546 posts)
48. I just did the google street view thingie for
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:36 PM
Oct 2012

their address at 910 Belle Avenue, Winter Springs, FL

It is a smal office strip and lists these businesses:

Central Florida Environmental?
Integrity Restoration & Remodeling?
Mars Financial Group?
Micro Innovations?
Music Teachers Collective?
Pro-Co Inc?
Pro-Rehab Contracting Inc?
Products Llc JB?
Solutions of America?
Total Water Treatment, inc?










JNelson6563

(28,151 posts)
52. Yeah, it was easy to see when he posted here.
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:42 PM
Oct 2012

What a loser this guy is. I suspect he'll have a show on Faux very soon.

Nice work Grantcart, I hope the move goes smoothly.



Julie

Cha

(294,396 posts)
89. Well, the next time he shows up on a thread
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:27 PM
Oct 2012

..maybe this one? We can alert his uber bogus poll ass.

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
55. Fans of Gravis on DU often say "We know it leans GOP, but we need the full data set..."
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:44 PM
Oct 2012

or some equally incoherent nonsense. And, yes, of course, they point to Silver and others including the Gravis numbers in their averages. This story, and your research here, should put all of that to bed. It will be very interesting to see who continues to post Gravis numbers with just the very weak "qualifier" that they are "Republican leaning." They - supposing these three con artists even qualifier for a "they" - are not merely "Republican leaning. They are just what many of us have always said they were - a pure GOP PR invention, a nothing, a zero. At some point, posting their polls with only that very flaccid qualifier functions as aiding and abetting a fraud, and should at the very least be looked at closely by admins and juries on this board.

Fantastic work.

pkdu

(3,977 posts)
56. From his website in 2010....
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:46 PM
Oct 2012

Doug Kaplan was Born in Brooklyn, New York, I grew up as the middle child of seven siblings. Early on, I developed a love of project development. By the age of 14, I had read several books . It was at this time that I knew what I wanted to do with my life. Upon graduating from high school, I entered Valencia and Devry University, I quickly found work developing my first project for Discovery Marketing. I learned a lot with the company, as I was responsible for their first national campaign. The most important lesson I learned was the importance of pushing the envelope and not being afraid to take risks. My technique has continued to evolve to the present day.

I am currently a freelance professional, working from my private office in Orlando I enjoy meeting other professionals and following the latest trends. I enjoy attending conferences and symposiums, as well as adding more books to my reading list. Although I am highly sought after, I am always open to new projects. No job is too big or too small. Call me today at 407-242-1870.

Doug Kaplan
(407) 242-1870
1931 South Prairie Dunes
Oviedo, Florida 32765

 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
74. Hmmmm.....
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:42 PM
Oct 2012

Domain Privacy Service
1958 South 950 East
Provo, Utah -
United States
Phone: +1.8017659400

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)
60. Excellent work. Is there a way to send this to Rachel, Al Sharpton, Big Ed or even to the
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:55 PM
Oct 2012

MSM like the NYT?

I'll send it around anyhow. Great job, thanks for doing all that work. So sick of frauds undermining our electoral process and I think it's time to strengthen laws against this kind of fraud.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
65. stopped for gas. I waive all copyright. any use OK.
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:23 PM
Oct 2012

If it is used by others pls mention DU as the original site.

patrice

(47,992 posts)
61. Thanks extremely, grantcart et DU al, for this case study on a vital topic, polling as a business,
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 01:56 PM
Oct 2012

rather than as research. Will share!

Please take a bow!


LiberalAndProud

(12,799 posts)
69. One of my brother's fraternity brothers
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:31 PM
Oct 2012

attempted to falsify his senior thesis. Rather than gathering statistics, he rolled dice. He flunked.

We have a polling organization that does much the same, with less random results, and his numbers are reported, analyzed and legitimized.

We've got trouble, my friends.

madrchsod

(58,162 posts)
70. thanks for ferreting out this loser and.....
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:32 PM
Oct 2012

it points out the reason why du is at this moment 1,130 in the alexia us traffic rank...

eridani

(51,907 posts)
72. If you have a journal, please save it there so it will be easy to find
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:37 PM
Oct 2012

If you don't have a journal, you can start one. We used to have a Research section, but it was closed because of insufficient usage.

Progressive dog

(6,844 posts)
81. Too lazy to go further but 6 out of 6 pages on Gravis were all updated same day (JUNE 3,2012)
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:05 PM
Oct 2012

Also, the name of Thomas E Young PhD is listed as author of some (or all) of the PDFs. Tried google on the name with no relevant results.

starroute

(12,977 posts)
92. There's a trail that seems to lead to I Marketing Co.
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:37 PM
Oct 2012

The address given for Kaplan in one of the comments further up, at 1931 S Prairie Dunes Ct, Oviedo, FL 32765, also appears as the address for something called I Marketing Co.
http://start.cortera.com/company/research/k2k1osr3l/i-marketing-co/

Doug Kaplan appears in any number of listings as the president or the CEO of I Marketing Co. For example, http://start.cortera.com/company/research/k2k1osr3l/i-marketing-co/
http://www.manta.com/c/mm3tk88/i-marketing-company
http://www.corporationwiki.com/Florida/Oviedo/doug-kaplan-P1139882.aspx

And it appears that I Marketing got itself in a bit of trouble back in 2005:

http://www.sptimes.com/2005/02/14/news_pf/Business/Disney_adds_to_troubl.shtml

<Jake> Wood, 27, may have a bigger problem on his hands with Disney. Last month, the Burbank, Calif., company added him to a list of defendants it accuses of infringing on its copyrights and trademarks.

According to the suit, filed in the U.S. District Court in Orlando, Wood and several other defendants representing I Marketing Co. of Oviedo allegedly marketed "Disney" vacation packages without Disney's permission. Unsolicited faxes showed images of Disney characters; customers who called the toll-free number allegedly were told they had reached the "Disney Reservation Center" or "Disney Reservations."

starroute

(12,977 posts)
94. Kaplan and his pal Jake Wood were in the junk fax business
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:41 PM
Oct 2012

This mentions the company name "IMC," which is presumably the same as I Marketing Co.

http://www.junkfax.org/fax/profiles/FloridaReservations.htm

Doug Kaplan purchased fax.com's number database from a former fax.com employee and is sending out their travel faxes using this database. So if you formerly got fax.com faxes and are now getting these faxes, it's not surprising.

You've been hit by Kaplan and his associates if you got a fax saying something like this:

5 days and 4 nights in Orlando
Fun in the Sun (As Seen on TV)
response number: 800-617-6442; Remove number: 800-603-1712

<snip>

They used to be at 407-215-8565 and were located at 460 State Rd. 436, Casselberry, FL 32707. They used the company name IMC. 30-40 Telemarketers worked out of the office there but they moved out in late 2004.

Contacts:

Doug Kaplan aka Douglas Joseph Kaplan of Oviedo, FL (age 26) is listed on the DNS registration for floridareservation.net. Doug is famous for Vacation Showroom (see Rip Off Report Vacation Showroom (Doug Kaplan) ) and Rip Off Report VACATION SHOWROOM - Doug Kaplan)
Lance Sawyer, Doug's partner (see Rip Off ReportVacation Showroom, direct Reservations, vacation 123,wcc Travel, wholesale Connection Company ripoff Maitland Florida)
Jason Giza aka Jason A Giza (age 26) (has been doing this since 1999; Richard Z. has details)
Jacob R Wood (age 27) (business partner of Jason Giza)
Anthony Alfred Arrigoni aka Tony Arrigoni (partner of Giza; also well known in the travel business)

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
101. I love "Tony Arrigoni"
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:02 PM
Oct 2012

Watta buncha doot-da-doo's, as we used to say.

It's like the fucking cast from Boiler Room.

starroute

(12,977 posts)
99. Complaints about Kaplan at Rifoff Report
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:54 PM
Oct 2012
http://www.ripoffreport.com/hotel/vacation-showroom/vacation-showroom-doug-kaplan-98j76.htm

Vacation Showroom (Doug Kaplan) rip-off! The company doesn't pay employees correctly. It's a fraud vacation!

vacation showroom is a complete ripoff... first off, they dont pay the staff hourly which is illegal. straight commission. Noone goes by their real names. vacation showroom is located at 2700 westhall ln suite 110 maitland fl 32751 they have also been known as w.c.c. travel "whole sale connection"

lets get down to the brass tax. Douglas Kaplan is the owner. He's a little weird quiet guy who talks behind everyones back. He doesn't say anything to anyone directly because he isn't a big fan of confrontation. his cell# is 407-463-2157 you can call him directly for a refund. he has money. or e-mail him at [email protected]

Also they only take check by phone. Doug wasn't able to get a merchant account cause noone trusts him at all--actually come to think of it--the resorts he's selling the vacations for doesnt know he's involved otherwise they wouldnt deal with him--so they use other names....

if you get a fax from them just rip it up--actually you know it's from them cause there isnt a business name on the fax - "very clever" it just states you can go to orlando for $99---but it goes to 296.99 right when you call--then if you dont buy it on that call they say they are running out--complete lie----dont buy it..dont call them....dont fall into the same thing alot of people do..i used to work for doug answering phones--he is a complete weasel.


http://www.ripoffreport.com/travel-companies/vacation-showroom/vacation-showroom-doug-kapla-md4ea.htm

VACATION SHOWROOM - Doug Kaplan rip-off It's a fraud FLORIDA vacation Customer Service is rude and hangs up if want to talk to supervisors

MY WIFE RECEIVED A FAX AT HER WORK PLACE SOVEREIGN BANK, ASBURY PARK, NEW JERSEY. It just states you can go to orlando for $99--- but it goes to 296.98 right when you call--then if you dont buy it on that call they say they are running out the vacations--complete lie - they don't accept Credit Card only cheque over the phone - It should have raised a red flag but I don't know how fell into the trap, maybe because my wife received the fax at her work place.

After struggling on the phone for several hours I finally got thru some supervisor named Mary Johnson X 0101 who promised me and my wife that the Refund cheque was processed on April 7, 2004 and that I should be getting the cheque in the mail in 3-4 weeks. It's been more than 5 weeks but I haven't received anything yet. I wish I'd done some background check on the company before paying $296.98 to them over the Phone.

starroute

(12,977 posts)
95. Oh -- Kaplan also has his very own PAC
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:44 PM
Oct 2012
http://www.electionfund.org/Committee/Protect-Candidate-Speech-Pac

Protect Candidate Speech Pac
910 Belle Ave Suite 1042, Winter Springs, FL 32708
Treasurer: Douglas Joseph Kaplan

Committee Name: Protect Candidate Speech Pac
Treasurer: Douglas Joseph Kaplan
Committee Designation: Unauthorized
Committee Type: PAC
Address: 910 Belle Ave Suite 1042
Winter Springs, FL 32708
Committee Party: Unknown
Filing Frequency: Quarterly filer
Interest Group Category:
Connected Organization:
Last Update: Sep 2, 2012

On edit: Here's the link for the FEC filings.
http://images.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00526020

starroute

(12,977 posts)
114. Kaplan seems to have a lot more ventures
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:32 PM
Oct 2012

It seems like Douglas J. Kaplan and D. Joseph Kaplan are the same person.

http://www.corporationwiki.com/Florida/Longwood/douglas-kaplan-7558934.aspx

Companies associated with Douglas Kaplan
D K Advertising, Inc. President is an active role held by Douglas Kaplan Oviedo, FL
Discovery Marketing, Inc. President is an active role held by Douglas Kaplan Longwood, FL
Fine West Global, Inc. President is an active role held by Douglas Kaplan Oviedo, FL
I’ Marketing Company President is an active role held by Douglas Kaplan Oviedo, FL


http://www.corporationwiki.com/Florida/Oviedo/1931-S-Prairie-Dunes-Ct-Oviedo-FL-32765-a1086636.aspx

1931 S Prairie Dunes Ct Oviedo, FL 32765

Companies at this address:

K2K End Media, Inc.
D K Advertising, Inc.
I’ Marketing Company
US Travel Services, Inc.
Dk Equities of Orlando, Inc.
K2K Media, LLC
Douglas Kaplan
Kaplan Consulting Company
Fine West Global, Inc.
Equity Communications Enterprises Inc

People at this address:

Doug Kaplan
Karen Kaplan
D Joseph Kaplan
Douglas Kaplan
Dj Kaplan

starroute

(12,977 posts)
117. Discovery Marketing was also in the fax spam business
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:42 PM
Oct 2012
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://www.ftc.gov/reports/mailbox/mailboxreport.pdf

Defendant: Illinois v. Discovery Marketing, Inc. and Source Marketing, Inc. dba Fax Source
Headquarters: Discovery Marketing: Longwood, FL; Source Marketing: Littleton, CO
Product or Business: Unsolicited faxes offering discount vacations without disclosing the full terms and conditions of the offer
Action: Final Judgment and Consent Decree (April 6, 2000)
Court or Agency: U.S. District Court, Central District of Illinois

starroute

(12,977 posts)
121. And here's an FCC warning about the spam faxes
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:49 PM
Oct 2012
http://transition.fcc.gov/eb/Orders/2001/eb01tc027b.html

FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20554

May 11, 2001

Douglas Kaplan Douglas Kaplan
President President
US Travel Services, Inc. US Travel Services, Inc.
a.k.a. Omega Marketing of Orlando, Inc. a.k.a. Omega Marketing of
Orlando, Inc.
a.k.a. Discovery Marketing, Inc. a.k.a. Discovery
Marketing, Inc.
a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel
1567 Oberlin Terrace 740 Florida Central
Parkway, Suite 1028
Lake Mary, Florida 32746 Longwood, Florida 32750

Douglas Kaplan Douglas Kaplan
President President
US Travel Services, Inc. US Travel Services, Inc.
a.k.a. Omega Marketing of Orlando, Inc. a.k.a. Omega Marketing of
Orlando, Inc.
a.k.a. Discovery Marketing, Inc. a.k.a. Discovery
Marketing, Inc.
a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel
1931 S. Prairie Dunes Court P. O. Box 521612
Oviedo, Florida 32765 Longwood, Florida 32752

Douglas Kaplan Douglas Kaplan
President President
US Travel Services, Inc. US Travel Services, Inc.
a.k.a. Omega Marketing of Orlando, Inc. a.k.a. Omega Marketing of
Orlando, Inc.
a.k.a. Discovery Marketing, Inc. a.k.a. Discovery
Marketing, Inc.
a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel
P. O. Box 941990 531 N Hwy 17-92, Suite 6
Maitland, Florida 32794 Longwood, Florida 32750 US

Douglas Kaplan
President
US Travel Services, Inc.
a.k.a. Omega Marketing of Orlando, Inc.
a.k.a. Discovery Marketing, Inc. .
a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel
Box 522493
Longwood, Florida 32752

RE: EB-01-TC-027

Dear Mr. Kaplan:

This is an official CITATION issued pursuant to section
503(b)(5) of the Communications Act of 1934, as amended (the
Communications Act), 47 U.S.C. § 503(b)(5).

It has come to our attention that your company recently sent
an unsolicited advertisement to a telephone facsimile machine
(see attachment). Pursuant to the Telephone Consumer Protection
Act of 1991 (TCPA) and the Commission's rules, it is unlawful to
use a ``telephone facsimile machine, computer, or other device to
send an unsolicited advertisement to a telephone facsimile
machine.'' 47 U.S.C. § 227(b)(1)(C); 47 C.F.R. § 64.1200(a)(3).

In addition to the violation identified above, it appears
that your company has also violated the provisions of the TCPA
and the Commission's rules that require any person or entity who
sends a message via a telephone facsimile machine to clearly mark
``in a margin at the top or bottom of each transmitted page of
the message or on the first page of the transmission, the date
and time it is sent and an identification of the business, other
entity, or individual sending the message and the telephone
number of the sending machine or of such business, other entity,
or individual.'' 47 U.S.C. § 227(d)(1)(B); 47 C.F.R. §
68.318(d).

AikidoSoul

(2,150 posts)
102. Great job on this...thank you.
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:04 PM
Oct 2012

I'm impressed with what you've done, and hope to see more deep digging like your post.

 

Panasonic

(2,921 posts)
103. Good luck. I used to live on Craycroft and Broadway in Tucson
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:06 PM
Oct 2012

back in '01 - and yes, that's where I lived when 9/11 happened.

jsmirman

(4,507 posts)
104. I'm forwarding this to a friend at the NYT
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:07 PM
Oct 2012

and some people on the campaign.

Anyone else have other contacts?

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
106. Patting myself on the back for seeing this early
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 04:12 PM
Oct 2012
"It is not Republican-leaning. It is a pure GOP front organization."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125193207#post6

"Gravis is not "right-leaning." It is a front organization. Completely non-credible and therefore not worthwhile to post."

http://betterment.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=93245

Also interesting to see who is the biggest sucker / Gravis promoter on these boards. Very interesting indeed.

fiorello

(182 posts)
124. Sent to Sam Wang - along with some math
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:00 PM
Oct 2012

Sam Wang has a great poll-aggregation site: election.princeton.edu . He also includes your friend at Gravis, and your info via dailykos is already there.

I added my own twist: a math-based analysis of whether Gravis poll numbers look real or made up. (They don't look real. He has his 'favorite numbers' for filling in the after-the-decimal-point digit that makes a poll number sound oh-so-real. I mean, if a pollster goes through the trouble to report values as exact as 43.9%, they sound 'sciencey' and must be real, right?)

Here are the nasty details:


I pulled up a poll from the Gravis web site, that gave a number of 3-significant-figure percent values. I took only the last digit of each poll number (- the number after the decimal point, which should be randomly distributed from zero to nine -) and it looked strange. I counted the occurrences of odd and even digits (32 odd, 10 even) and applied the "Monobit frequency test", and found that this distribution has a 1-in-one-thousand chance of occurring by accident likilihood of occurring by accident. That's way too low - suggesting the numbers were, uh, invented.

It is true that I 'polluted' this test because I first noticed the non-random pattern and then picked a test that was geared to the non-randomness that I found. Also, Monobit requires more than 100 entries; I just had 42.  (And that a true random collection of numbers does sometimes look nonrandom.)

But in my defense: this was a quick first effort, from a polling sample picked at random, and a more sophisticated analysis would probably identify an even higher non-randomness.


Gravis poll used for evaluation: 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_FL_1001.pdf

Last significant figure of each entry: 

307173 94359 07797 0559
37 0394517 4913950 532372. 

Frequency of occurrence:
0. =5
1. =3. 
2. =2. 
3. =8. 
4.  =3. 
5. = 6
6. = 0. 
7. = 8. 
8. = 0. 
9. = 7. 
---

frazee

(61 posts)
135. Nice analysis. I get similar
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 06:28 PM
Oct 2012

results by way of a likelihood ratio chi-square test (x2 = 28.999, p = .0007). Unfortunately, there are too many rows for an exact test with my software.

frazee

(61 posts)
137. A more appropriate test than my earlier one is probably a simple
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 06:50 PM
Oct 2012

goodness of fit. With this, chi-square = 19.905, p = .019. With the small sample size, Cohen's w = 0.688 -- a very large effect size.

reflection

(6,286 posts)
126. You never know something until you "know it"
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:06 PM
Oct 2012

and I knew Gravis was full of shit. Now I "know" it. Thank you so much. A hearty k/r!

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,671 posts)
130. I Am Impressed With The Speed This Clown Made Himself A Player
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:27 PM
Oct 2012

It will be interesting to see how this all ends.

formercia

(18,479 posts)
132. Doug Kaplan can't be doing very well
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 05:48 PM
Oct 2012

based on the size of his Gold Chain.

A real Pikey would have at least three.

reflection

(6,286 posts)
136. Action required:
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 06:49 PM
Oct 2012

This article in the Denver Business Journal is pimping the Gravis Marketing "poll" in CO. I don't have any of the accounts required to post a comment, no Facebook, no Yahoo, etc. Can someone please comment at the article and include a link to this thread? I would hate to see the vote depressed by misinformation.

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2012/10/06/romney-leads-in-1st-post-debate-poll.html

fiorello

(182 posts)
143. On second thought: let them waste their money!
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 09:10 PM
Oct 2012

If the Denver Biz Journal believes this guy, they'll just end up fooling themselves. So best of luck to him! May he be so successful that next year he can retire to the Cayman Islands aling with Mitt.

Samantha

(9,314 posts)
139. Very impressive, grantcart, thank you so much
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 07:17 PM
Oct 2012

I am kind of behind the eight ball on this subject. Could someone concisely tell me how Nate Silver has been punked? I check his site regularly and his numbers are the ones I trust the most. Did he give too much credence to these guys and his numbers have been adversely influenced? If so, in what way? I hope someone can let me know. I hoping this might mean some of Nate's numbers have been under weighted,* but that is a stab in the dark. I have not been on this train.

Hopefully, someone can fill me in on how Nate's numbers are impacted....

K & R this thread.

Sam

*meaning Romney's numbers are not as good as they seem; Obama's are better than seen. Didn't want to be misunderstood in using these words.

Denzil_DC

(7,149 posts)
142. Silver cited Gravis in an article on Saturday as evidence of the Romney "bump"
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 09:09 PM
Oct 2012
There were few state polls published on Saturday, but a Gravis Marketing poll of Colorado also showed a sharp reversal toward Mr. Romney. He led in its newest survey, which was conducted on Thursday after the debate, by 3.5 percentage points. Although Gravis Marketing polls have had a very strong Republican lean so far this cycle, the trend in the poll is nevertheless extremely favorable for Mr. Romney, since he had trailed Mr. Obama by roughly five percentage points in a poll it conducted in September.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/#more-35637


Gravis is also included in his sidebar state roundups.

DemocratSinceBirth pointed out on DU:

Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In CO 60%-40%

Sloppy work by Nate there.

Samantha

(9,314 posts)
146. Thank you so much Denzil_DC
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 10:09 PM
Oct 2012

I was hoping someone would say something like that -- that Silver's numbers had Romney overweighted and Obama underweighted. So you have specifically pointed out one swing state where that happened, and I assume there are more. This was something I had noticed myself yesterday, and I could not believe Romney's debate performance (meaning performance art) had changed the numbers in some states that much. I wonder if they influenced Florida in any way?

Thanks again.

Sam

Denzil_DC

(7,149 posts)
147. You're welcome, Samantha
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 10:45 PM
Oct 2012

I saw after I posted that ProSense had posted much the same information upthread.

It's not so much a question of weighting (Nate's weighting of Gravis has usually been low - i.e. the amount of significance awarded its results) as outright contamination and manipulation of the narrative and polling averages (along with Nate's singling Gravis out in his post since there was very little CO polling available at that point).

Digging around a few places, it seems that Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium has now chimed in in the comments at the Angry Bear blog:

Sam Wang Oct 7, 2012 4:14:00 PM

Sam Wang here from the Princeton Election Consortium.

I think that Mr. Kaplan could allay concerns by specifying whether he follows generally accepted principles of polling as described by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), whether he is a member, and where he gets his technical expertise. To my knowledge, reputable pollsters of all stripes, clientwise, do that.

http://www.angrybearblog.com/2012/09/gravis-marketing-polls-and-reporting-ii.html


And Mr. gravismarketing has now been PPR'd.

It's obvious there are other firms out there up much the same tricks. We need to expose them.

NBachers

(16,815 posts)
144. More repube lies. More repube fraud. More repube cheating. More repube democracy-trashing
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 09:45 PM
Oct 2012

God I love seeing these vermin getting roasted under the white-hot light of truth.

Thank you, Grantcart. Good for you.

I'm proud to share Democratic Underground with the likes of you.

Science Geek

(161 posts)
148. This is real investigative journalism...
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 10:58 PM
Oct 2012

Fantastic job of outing a confidence-man who's still actually influencing the electoral process. It's an amazing piece of work, the kind of work that I'm old enough to remember used to be done by actual journalists working for news organizations. Now, those organizations are the ones being duped, to their great shame, by this con-men; still being duped as I write this. Just wow.

It's painful for me to see some of the names of the those being duped! People I respected; but I've been forced to alter my opinions about them. Folks who would fall for this guy when cursory investigation turns up all the two-bit, petty-thief, boiler-room, scam-artist facts, are not worthy of an iota of respect.


This is really something! Well done sir.

progressivebydesign

(19,458 posts)
151. Awesome work! Is this being sent to HuffPo? and Silver?
Sun Oct 7, 2012, 11:49 PM
Oct 2012

I can't believe they'd use a STOCK photo for the bio pic. It's obviously a stock photo...

This is all so very plausible. One day in the early 90s, I met a well dressed man at a happy hour downtown. He was in town working on a Congressional campaign for a republican woman. He fancied me a bit, so he was talking and talking.. about what he did. He said that anyone can call themselves a political consultant. He told me to basically get some cards printed up, put the volunteer experience I had, and I could get clients right away. He had no real credentials, he told me, just started doing it... It's a world of bullshit.

Man.. I hope that this news gets out EVERYWHERE.

anneboleyn

(5,611 posts)
152. yes, this is awesome. I really hope this has been sent to CNN and everywhere else
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:40 AM
Oct 2012

so that this ridiculous, manipulative creep can get his due. It is disturbing that one dude can basically make shit up and his made-up, pro-Romney numbers will be cited in a presidential race. And nobody else even bothered to check before a DU-er went after him.

anneboleyn

(5,611 posts)
153. The idea that one jerk could depress votes or otherwise impact the election
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:43 AM
Oct 2012

should have serious repercussions. This needs to be sent to every media outlet that has used this jerk's information.

MessiahRp

(5,405 posts)
155. That one is run by the right wing Illinois Manufacturers Association
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:29 AM
Oct 2012

IMA is a right wing corporate lobbying group and has opposed a litany of worker's rights. See more here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_Manufacturers%27_Association

Raine1967

(11,588 posts)
181. I did some research based on your post:
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:36 PM
Oct 2012

I created a new op: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021503745

Thanks for the hedz up! We Ask America is another fraudulent polling outlet.

MessiahRp

(5,405 posts)
186. Sweet, get the word out!
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 04:53 AM
Oct 2012

It's funny as hell that when the polls don't go their way, the GOP claims fraudulent polling however they own a good portion of the polling firms.

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)
156. Holy Crap. I knew that asswipe was a liar.
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:56 AM
Oct 2012

Excuse my language. I went off on Doug Kaplan yesterday as a fraud for his AA#'s in the CO poll. I knew something was not right.

grantcart, you are brilliant. Now I can go to bed knowing that CO poll is total crap and every other Gravis Marketing poll is worth toilet paper.

underpants

(181,471 posts)
161. I first noticed Gravis when suddenly Allen was up by 5 or 7 against Kaine
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:49 AM
Oct 2012
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021346488

great research grantcart - thanks for giving us the complete picture.
They are still at it if you check out realcclearpolitics current poll page

Check their "results" in Colorado on Sat. 10/6/12
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,671 posts)
164. I Was Part Of This Great Unraveling So I Would Like To Add One Caveat
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:15 AM
Oct 2012

I think it has been established that he has ties to the Republican party despite his protestations to the contrary. I think it also has been established that he has been involved in some shady business deals in the past and has inflated his credentials.


However, I don't think we can say with certainty he doesn't conduct any polls at all. You don't need much of a staff when you use you a predictive dialer.

He can just be a crappy pollster with his finger on the scale who has been involved in some shady deals in the past and lied or misled about his Republican ties.

muriel_volestrangler

(100,947 posts)
166. Agreed - I think it's his competence and methods that are open to question
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:11 AM
Oct 2012

It looks like a brand-new, one-man band, from someone involved in cutting corners in the past. I found a poll from a few days ago in which he said the Libertarian candidate was polling 10% in Ohio, and Republicans were pretty scathing about that. He may be making the number of robocalls he claims, but they don't look as though there's a decent attempt at making them representative of demographics.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,671 posts)
171. Small Correction
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:01 AM
Oct 2012

He doesn't use a predictive dialer. Salespeople used predictive dialers. A predictive dialer is when the phone call is placed automatically and the caller speaks to whoever answers it. Our "friend" uses a robocaller with automated responses. A pre recorded voice asks you to press a button on your phone to indicate your answers. You do not need much of a staff to do that but you do need to know what you're doing.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
174. Yes we can until he proves otherwise.
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:59 PM
Oct 2012

He doesn't have a sustainable business model for a pollster.

He doesn't have academic credentials for a pollster.

and there is no evidence before he started providing numbers on a national race that he had ever done a single poll.

Do a google search and find out what was his first published poll?

I can't find anything in 2011.

Now let me ask you another question if you set a polling operation that published results but never ran a poll and it was done intentionally to induce people to make contributions under the premise that their candidate was doing better than he really was would that be grounds for criminal fraud?

But putting aside the question of whether or not he conducted any polls or not the real issue is that the media has nobody checking at the gate. They have a corral of people they are broadcasting results for and they never put in a couple of hours to check if they were legitimate or not. No matter what standard you use Gravis Marketing is not going to meet it.

Maeve

(42,152 posts)
177. what a low state "media" has fallen to
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:17 PM
Oct 2012

I mourn for the loss of "journalism"

But for you, grantcart--

MADem

(135,425 posts)
185. Do they have a "polling" major at Devry? I think not.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 12:15 AM
Oct 2012

I see their rather cheap and sleazy commercials on late-night TV all the time, interdispersed between the cartoons. They have 90 "campus" locations and an acceptance rate of 93 percent, and our hero read a few books when he was a teen, so he was surely a fine candidate. It is a "for profit" educational institution.

The big question here, though is one you raised in your last paragraph--the media has NOBODY CHECKING AT THE GATE. Why? Are they grabbing this info to make a horse race, to hell with the facts, so they can sell ad time? Or is it even more nefarious?

The media wonders why the kids turn to social media and other sources for news and screen entertainment--but when they fall down on the job this way, who can blame them?

chemp

(730 posts)
169. Meet Chris Young - Rhode Island
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:46 AM
Oct 2012

"Democratic" candidate for Mayor in Providence, Hard right religious lunatic and head case.

 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
170. Bookmarking for GOOD future reference.
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:52 AM
Oct 2012

here are many people that I think will not like reading this. I don't care

Historic NY

(37,393 posts)
173. I was trying to do that google image search thingy
Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:32 PM
Oct 2012

to find out where the photo came from they left a lot of open holes. But I see it already came up as stock art.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
182. REC 348--if I could rec it a thousand times I would.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:45 PM
Oct 2012

You're brilliant, and great work. Thanks for that!!!

Raster

(20,996 posts)
192. I had my suspicions. Your research and tenacity do us PROUD!
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 07:54 AM
Oct 2012

We should NEVER underestimate or flippantly dismiss some of the DU contributions to the national political discourse.

Thank you for going the extra mile!

KAPLAN IS A SCUMBAG! His purpose is to muddy the waters and confuse the issues.

Nice takedown!

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
193. That and not having a TV after a move gave me a lot of time with nothing to do
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 11:08 AM
Oct 2012

Other than that I am 100% committed!!

Raster

(20,996 posts)
199. Love Tucson. I have family there and go back a couple times a year.
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 04:09 AM
Oct 2012

Southern Arizona (Baja Arizona) is completely different from Maricopa.

I grew up in a small town called Safford, in the shadow of Mt. Graham.

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