Lots of votes out in Ohio Democratic counties

[Bradshaw3]

Almost all the counties around the cities are around 50 percent in while many of the rural and red areas I looked at were in the 80 to 90 percent range.

At the NYT interactive map you can scroll over the counties and check the numbers:

Vhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-ohio-president.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive®ion=ReporterUpdates

[LizBeth]

1. +1

[msongs]

9. red rural counties mostly 70-80 counted, blue metros only 50% counted with way more voters nt

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Yes but some of that vote is for Trump too.

Mostly because a lot of Biden voters voted early. There are Trump voters in, say, places like Cuyahoga County. He won 30% of the vote there in 2016. He's currently at 24.5%. That will likely come up.

The question is whether Biden can expand his leads anywhere.

[Bradshaw3]

5. He's doing way better than HRC in those urban areas

And drumpf is doing worse. Try out the map. I don't know if Biden will win Ohio but the numbers should make you feel better.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Yes but Biden isn't winning Cuyahoga County with 73% of the vote.

Which he is currently. Even Obama in 2008 didn't win it by that much (68). Biden is likely to lose Ohio. But his performance there should be encouraging for Pennsylvania and Michigan.

[Bradshaw3]

10. Huh?

Biden IS winning it with 73 percent of the vote.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Yes. He won't win it by that much when all votes are in.

You're assuming Biden will keep his percent up as ballots are counted from there. I am saying that even Obama in 2008 didn't carry Cuyahoga County with the margins Biden is seeing right now. Which means a lot of the Trump votes in that county were same-day votes and therefore have not been counted yet. When they are counted, Biden will lose a bit of his lead in Cuyahoga County. He'll still win it substantially but I don't think he'll win it with 73% of the vote. Trump is likely to win the outstanding vote in Cuyahoga County only because most Biden voters voted early.

[kwolf68]

3. Ohio is going down

Biden is losing ground big time. No words

[msongs]

11. no. red counties mostly counted, blue cities less than 60% counted nt

[Buckeye_Democrat]

4. Yep, I'm noticing the same on CBS.

Cincinnati (Hamilton County) has been way behind in reporting so far.

My county (Montgomery) is very purple and Biden is doing far better than Clinton here.

[Hokie]

6. Yes Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties still have a lot of votes out

I think this could be an upset.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Unlikely. A significant amount of those outstanding votes are Trump votes...

Biden will likely lose Cuyahoga County 68-30 or something - and Trump is not there yet.

[msongs]

13. CUyahoga 45% left to count and Biden leads by 73% nt

[Ms. Toad]

14. But it's not just a rural/uban shift (with the red rural votes coming in first)

This year there is also the early/election day shift - which was much larger in the opposite direction.

Overwhelmingly the early vote was strongly democratic. Probably less overwhelming - but heavily - the in person vote was Republican. In Ohio, the early vote is the first vote reported. rural comes second, then the remaining urban areas.

The difference this year is that the republican votes on election day for urban areas will be higher than the democratic votes on election day (or at least much closer than usual). In other words, the urban vote matters much less this year - because the part of it that matters most has already been counted.