Message auto-removed

[Name removed]

[lame54]

1. Trump could concede today...

And I would still be nervous on Tuesday

Trumpworld doesn't follow rational rules

[SWBTATTReg]

2. So I show almost 80 million votes for Mr. Biden and thus, 100 million + 40+60/2 or 50 million

= 150 million minus almost 80 million votes for Biden, equals 70 million for trump. Seems too much even so for trump, being that he's stirred too many pots w/ his negativism and hatred. But, I will take these numbers, as they foreshadow rump's coming doom.

[regnaD kciN]

3. As we should have learned last time around...

...any calculations that only concern the national popular vote are meaningless. It isn’t whether Biden wins that (which he will), but whether he wins enough in the right states to get to 270 EV.

Plus, if 100 million have already voted, that gives Republicans 100 million votes to try to have ruled ineligible – and it only takes a tiny fraction of those in the right places to flip the election.

[Ms. Toad]

15. They don't have to.

The discrepancy can be created by a greater differential in dem states (some of which are as high as 90% for Biden), and a much more modest differential in Republican states. That would create a popular vote that appears overwhelming for Biden, but which does not net a correspondingly large electoral share.

I am more hopeful than in 2016, largely because of high voter turnout and a much smaller undecided block. But it is not won yet, by any stretch of the imagination.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Back of envelope number there is a 10 million vote difference.

Compared to 2016, will Trump improve his margin anywhere?

[OneBlueSky]

5. I don't believe that 69% to 27% election day prediction for a minute . . . n/t

[SWBTATTReg]

13. I kind of agree w/ you here...I didn't vote absentee or any other method, will go vote in

person, especially with all of the nonsense about ballot drop boxes being set on fire, ballots delayed in the US Post Office and such, trump supporters blocking voter lines, etc., as well as other nefarious methods to keep us from voting/etc. If anything, it makes doubly determined to vote. Personally (if I'm reading you right), I think that the percentages are skewed, and the numbers are more leaning towards a 50/50 split, as there are more people out there, far more vested, this time around to vote the POS in the WH out. Kind of a continuation of the 2018 voting patterns when people had enough time to see what trump was really like.

[Thekaspervote]

6. I have my doubts that ppl on Election Day will be able to overcome weeks of EV totals

[Boogiemack]

8. O do believe we will surprise the pollsters on Nov 3. Why? Because we want to show them up.

We want to match tit for tat with the MAGAs standing in line. Plus a hell of a lot of them are sick at home after being stranded twice and picking up COVID on six occasions.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

9. I approve of your numbers, and I like how you think! n/t

[Ms. Toad]

12. Actually, the math is much more complex than you suggest.

What matters is not how big his popular vote lead is, but where those votes are. Electoral votes are not proportional to the popular vote.

[Ms. Toad]

19. I am a realist, who believes in real math.

You, in the other hand, apparently want to ignore ha!f of the mathematical equation that generates the misperception that an overwhelming lead in the popular polls will inherently translate into an electoral win.

[Silent3]

18. The details of the math might be more complex, but when the national margins are this wide...

...it become highly, HIGHLY improbable that the Electoral College system thwarts the popular vote. The EC generally functions as a magnifier of the popular vote, with a regional noise effect that can flip the popular vote, but that's an effect less and less likely to do so the more the popular vote margin widens.

On top of that, the state-by-state polls look good for the EC anyway, and reporting about voter turnout also sounds damn good in battleground states.

Apart from voter suppression and court-challenge chicanery (which still do worry me some), I think this election is as close to being in the bag for Biden as we've seen for any US election in a long time.

[Ms. Toad]

20. Except when the popular vote margins differ significantly between predicted dem wins and predicted

Republican wins.

There are dem jurisdictions in which the Biden vote is predicted to be as high as 90%. There is not a single predicted Republican win that high. My recollection is that the max is 70%. That means the popular vote skews heavily democratic, without a corresponding share of the electoral vote.I

To get the electoral votes, you only have to win by 1 vote. So the large popular vote advantage in places like NY make it appear that Biden is farther ahead than he is.

[Silent3]

21. Just take a look at the history of elections in the US

Only four times has the loser of the popular vote won the electoral vote, and the worst case of that was a 3% difference in popular vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin

Since two of those time are very recent, the problem might be getting worse as the country becomes more polarized, but history still backs what I said: the bigger the popular vote margin, the less likely an EC reversal will happen.

[Ms. Toad]

24. I prefer to look at actual numbers from this election.

Meaning the actual numbers that matter: the state polls, and the margins that both magnify the popular vote gap, -as well as the margins in the states that are the likely electoral tipping points.

The popular vote margins is a feel good measure, but means little as to the electoral winner.

[onetexan]

14. VT Day..i love that! :)