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Sat Oct 31, 2020, 12:50 PM

538 slams Trafalager polling...


12 replies, 1358 views

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 12:52 PM

1. I knew they were hinky because they've consistently had trump leading Biden for months.

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Response to catbyte (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 12:55 PM

2. They were correct in 2016.

No doubt thatís why theyíre getting so much attention now.

Smerconish was talking about this today too.

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Response to cwydro (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:08 PM

7. Yeah, but 2020 is not 2016. But I guess I can see why they included them.

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Response to catbyte (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:29 PM

8. Yeah, Smerconish had a few others on to refute, even scoff at them lol.

Iím not a huge fan of Smerconish, but he did a fair job on that today.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 12:56 PM

3. Why did Nate include them in the first place?

He doesn't include all polls in his statistical analysis so he must have a rationale for why he selects the polls he decides to use.

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Response to Spazito (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:00 PM

5. You wouldn't include the polling outfit that was correct in 2016?

I doubt many would exempt them.

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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #5)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:07 PM

6. They really weren't any more correct than others in the big picture...

Here is a good article on the polls from 2016:

Which was the most accurate national poll in the 2016 presidential election?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/05/which-was-the-most-accurate-national-poll-in-the-2016-presidential-election/

When I did a search, it was primarily right wing sites that were touting the Trafalgar Group and, given it's bias, I am not surprised.

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Response to Spazito (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 04:11 PM

9. He has addressed this a few times in the podcasts.

They exclude pollsters that are known or suspected to have used fake data. People can argue about how ridiculous the Trafalgar method for arriving at their likely voter model is. That's why they are a C grade pollster at 538. They do make calls and record the answers that they are given accurately. That's why 538 includes them.

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Response to Hyper_Eye (Reply #9)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 04:13 PM

10. Thanks for this, I really was curious hence my question...

and I wasn't able to find the answer on his site so your post is very helpful to me.

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Response to Spazito (Reply #10)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 04:17 PM

11. You can find it on the site in the FAQ

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-policy-and-faqs/

Polls we suspect are fake will also not be included until we conduct a thorough investigation and can confirm their veracity. We will permanently ban any pollster found to be falsifying data. Additionally, we reserve the right to ban polls sponsored by a particular organization that consistently engages in dishonest or nontransparent behavior that goes beyond editorializing and political spin.

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Response to Hyper_Eye (Reply #11)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 04:24 PM

12. Ahh, thank you, I mistakenly thought I would find the details on the main page...

and didn't look further. I appreciate the link and am off the read more from it.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 12:59 PM

4. Michael Cohen disclosed in his testimony that poll manipulation...

Is a typical Trumpian MO. (Frequent, in other GrOPper efforts over the years, too.)

Also, substantiated by the Hate Pumpkin's ongoing obsession with the polls being so, "unfair".

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