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Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:23 PM

New North Carolina poll (NBC/Siena, A+): Biden +6; Cunningham +10, Cooper +19

Biden 52-46
Cunningham 53-43
Cooper 59-40

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7279122-Xyz-NBCNews-Marist-Poll-NC-Annotated.html

43 replies, 2164 views

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Reply New North Carolina poll (NBC/Siena, A+): Biden +6; Cunningham +10, Cooper +19 (Original post)
brooklynite Oct 2020 OP
greenjar_01 Oct 2020 #1
BusyBeingBest Oct 2020 #2
Boogiemack Oct 2020 #3
Happy Hoosier Oct 2020 #4
Shermann Oct 2020 #5
Cobalt Indigo Oct 2020 #24
Yavin4 Oct 2020 #30
Laelth Oct 2020 #6
My Pet Orangutan Oct 2020 #8
barbtries Oct 2020 #12
Laelth Oct 2020 #15
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #27
vercetti2021 Oct 2020 #7
democrattotheend Oct 2020 #9
My Pet Orangutan Oct 2020 #16
Codeine Oct 2020 #18
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #29
Mike 03 Oct 2020 #19
obamanut2012 Oct 2020 #25
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #28
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2020 #10
mnhtnbb Oct 2020 #11
wishstar Oct 2020 #13
dsc Oct 2020 #14
helpisontheway Oct 2020 #17
grobertj Oct 2020 #20
coti Oct 2020 #21
bucolic_frolic Oct 2020 #37
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #22
Cobalt Indigo Oct 2020 #23
triron Oct 2020 #26
StevieM Oct 2020 #31
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #35
StevieM Oct 2020 #40
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #42
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #36
Turin_C3PO Oct 2020 #39
Dem2 Oct 2020 #32
bucolic_frolic Oct 2020 #33
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #38
CaptainTruth Oct 2020 #34
Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2020 #41
BootinUp Oct 2020 #43

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:24 PM

1. Ouch

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:24 PM

2. It's happening!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:26 PM

3. It doesn't get much better than this.

 

Rock steady...

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:27 PM

4. Wait... WHAT!!???

Sweet Jeebus, please be true!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:28 PM

5. But what about TEH SEX TEXTS?!?!?

I guess Tactless Thom Tillis needs more of a platform than that.

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Response to Shermann (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:47 PM

24. seeing his ads

Every day with that blonde woman talking (badly acting) about "values" all the while knowing Tillis voters also voted for Orange-Ya-Glad who cheated on all 3 of his wives is excruciating.

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Response to Shermann (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 03:07 PM

30. I think he actually gained votes since that came out. n/t

Voters do not care about extra-marital affairs.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:28 PM

6. Cunningham 53-43? Seriously?

This must be an outlier.



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #6)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:30 PM

8. An A+ outlier no less :)

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Response to Laelth (Reply #6)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:30 PM

12. Why?

Tillis has been worse than useless.

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Response to barbtries (Reply #12)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:33 PM

15. It's NC. That's why.

Donít get me wrong. I hope itís dead-on accurate.



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #6)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 02:38 PM

27. It was in that range before the sex texts and now maybe that is over.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:28 PM

7. C'mon NC!

You can put us over too!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:30 PM

9. I hate to burst anyone's bubble

But the Marist poll also had Hillary winning NC by 6. OTOH, their last poll in 2016 was taken almost two weeks before the election.

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Response to democrattotheend (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:33 PM

16. Before Comey

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Response to democrattotheend (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:38 PM

18. They also had Hillary at only 47%

 

and the Libertarian candidate with 8%. Thatís a very different scenario.

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Response to Codeine (Reply #18)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 03:06 PM

29. Also, as I pointed out down thread...Marist was taken three days before the

Comey letter. That was the last North Carolina Marist poll for the season. And Marist was one of the most accurate polls in 16.

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Response to democrattotheend (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:39 PM

19. Weren't there a *lot more* undecideds in 2016?

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Response to Mike 03 (Reply #19)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:49 PM

25. Yes

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Response to democrattotheend (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 03:05 PM

28. Actually, not true. Marist was one of the most accurate polls in 2016

The last poll on 10-25 2016which-was-the-most-accurate-national-poll-in-the-2016-presidential-election/ However, the last North Carolina poll was taken on October 25th and failed to catch the shift that happened Because of Comey's letter to lawmakers. Remember, Comey came out with the letter on
10-28-16. Thus the poll probably wasn't wrong but the last October surprise came out after their last 2016 poll for Carolina. And again this poll was one of the most accurate of the cycle. So you are not bursting my bubble. I think we are doing great. Biden has had a consistent lead the entire cycle.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/05/


North Carolina Polling
https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/north-carolina-polls/


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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:30 PM

10. sitting here in NC beaming about this and the possibilities!

just got back from a 5 mile hike in a nearby national park. spectacular.

NC is such a lovely state it deserves politicians that value and nurture it.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:30 PM

11. Yes, please!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:31 PM

13. Undecideds are only 1% (Gov), 4% (Senate) and 2% (Pres.) in this poll

Good news in the last polls today and yesterday plus weather looks great for early voting today and tomorrow and on Election Day after the storm blew through yesterday so big turnout virtually guaranteed helping Dems.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:32 PM

14. Those numbers are very good

better than any that have come down the pike in awhile. Cooper is as close to a sure thing as humanly possible. He has been up by double digits for months and months. Forest is running as the covid spreader candidate and is getting the results one would expect. Cunningham was in the mid single digits in term of lead and then, well affair happened. Now he has largely shown a very narrow lead. Biden, consistent narrow lead. I still think we are likely to see a similar result here to 08 but with different races. In 08 we had a Senate blow out (Hagan beat Dole by 8 or so). A fairly close but not insanely close governor's race. (Perdue beat McCrory by like 1 or 2). Then we had a razor thin margin for Obama (had he needed NC we would have had a recount). This year I think the blow out will be Cooper, the close but not insanely close race will be for Senate and the President will also be close but probably not as close as 08.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:35 PM

17. Maybe this is why Trump cancelled his party? Nt

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:40 PM

20. I live in Greensboro and the Biden yard signs are everywhere!!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:40 PM

21. Biden really does seem to be, very gradually, increasing his lead nt

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Response to coti (Reply #21)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:18 PM

37. We trended like this in 2018

a slow steady grind. voters were learning, deciding, thinking. We have substance to offer them now. We didn't have GOP fear and corruption to showcase in 2016. Few took it seriously.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:43 PM

22. Great poll ...thanks for posting. And for the record I appreciate all of your posts...

Thanks!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:45 PM

23. I'm trying so hard

to not get my hopes up with these poll numbers but DAMN look at them! I'm so glad I was able to vote for all 3 of them in NC last week.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 02:24 PM

26. Awesome.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 03:19 PM

31. I am thinking that Biden will win nationally by 12 points. So 6 points in NC sounds about right.

He will perform respectably in states like Montana, South Carolina and Kansas, while still losing. That will allow the Democrats running for Senate in those states to have a real chance at winning.

Ultimately I think Biden will win 413 electoral votes, to 125 for Trump. Biden will win all the battleground states: Arizona, Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Maine, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia. He will sweep them all. And he will also win the 2nd Cong. district of Nebraska, along with the 2nd Cong. district of Maine.

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Response to StevieM (Reply #31)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:17 PM

35. He is only down two in Montana which is mind blowing.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #35)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:35 PM

40. Biden coming close in Montana, even if he doesn't quite win, should help us win the MT Senate race.

Same goes for South Carolina. Even the Alaska Senate race may be within a few points. But even if we don't win that one, the fact that we are competing for a Senate seat up there says a lot about how good our chances are in the other Senate battleground states.

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Response to StevieM (Reply #40)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:44 PM

42. True that.

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Response to StevieM (Reply #31)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:18 PM

36. He is only down two in Montana which is mind blowing.

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Response to StevieM (Reply #31)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:23 PM

39. From your lips to God's ears!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 03:47 PM

32. Whoa!

Nice poll!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:03 PM

33. GOP can't even tell loyalists to fall back and save the Senate - there's nothing but crooks to save

I'm almost thinking it's going to be sweet.

My money's been on NC and TX for about 2 weeks.

FL? IA? PA? not so much.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #33)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:20 PM

38. We will win PA and probably NC and Florida too...blow out.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:08 PM

34. Let it be so! VOTE!!!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:37 PM

41. Yes!!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:50 PM

43. Earthquake numbers

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