Florida Democrats have big lead in votes cast, but GOP starting to chip away at it

[RandySF]

Meanwhile, Republicans have shifted more to voting in person. The GOP is counting on a big surge of Republicans during in-person early voting, and on Election Day, to overcome the advantage amassed by Democrats in mail ballots.

Data from the first six days of Florida’s 14-day early voting period show the GOP significantly outperforming Democrats, and starting to eat into the party’s lead in pre-Election Day votes.
On Tuesday morning Florida Democrats had cast 481,892 more votes than Republicans. By Sunday morning the lead had dropped by 119,043 votes, to 363,849.

The shift was powered by a 230,261-vote advantage for the GOP in ballots cast at early voting locations.

Florida GOP Chairman Joe Gruters said he’s confident Republicans will continue to chip away at the lead Democrats have built up.



https://www.news-journalonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/23/florida-democrats-lead-mail-voting-more-republicans-voting-person-general-election-trump-biden/3719103001/

[Phoenix61]

1. We know some of those republicans are voting

for Biden and it doesn’t say anything about independents.

[Drahthaardogs]

3. Assuming about 60/40 Biden

Independent should add about 120,000. Now, there is more to it that. The big republican counties are already pushing 65% of registered voters voting.

Miami Dade and large democratic strongholds are at 38%...in other words, their voting pool is shrinking

Biden isn’t winning Florida by 500,000 votes, but they have a lot ground to make up

[moonscape]

5. You're assuming 60% of independents are Biden voters? In

swing states? Is there data on this?

[Drahthaardogs]

6. Nope. Just an assumption based on polls

And historical trends

[ProfessorGAC]

2. Seems Like A Non-Story

If dems did mail-in very early, and hit early voting places in droves during the first week, the finite pool of dem voters has a smaller remainder. Each incremental increase in dem voters is a higher fraction of those not yet voting.
The number of Rs still available to vote is higher.
Of course they're going to close the gap.
This "analysis" is tautological.

[UCmeNdc]

4. GOTV!

[rockfordfile]

7. lots of votes out there

[Baitball Blogger]

8. What happened to souls to the polls?