Based on 2016 exit polls, Biden currently leads in FL 50-46% (in actual votes).

[Drunken Irishman]

That's if the voting breakdown works out the same way it did in 2016.

That's a sharp decline for Biden compared to a few days ago, when he led 53.7-41.2 (back on Tuesday). That was to be expected as more early, in-person voting took place.

38% of registered voters in Florida have already voted. They're already at 55.2% of turnout in 2016.

But if you go off 2012's exit polls, which would be a more favorable voter turnout model, Biden leads 51.6-45.7.

The big differences comes from the 'Other Affiliated' votes. In 2016, Hillary lost this group 43-47. In 2012, Obama won this group 50-47.

Notice a similarity in those results? Trump actually didn't do better than Romney did in 2012. Hillary just did worse, by seven-points, than Obama, with this group. That's what cost her the state. Those seven-percenters didn't go to Trump, though, they went third party.

There is no indication of such a trend this go around.

So, based on what it looks like, I'd wager Biden is closer to Obama's turnout numbers than Hillary's in Florida.

That would be a marginal improvement. With how narrow Hillary lost the state in 2016, that marginal improvement might be enough.

Ultimately, Biden's lead is going to continue to shrink but the question is by how much?

We're at 55% of the 2016 turnout yet only 38% of registered voters in Florida have voted. In 2016, it was pretty high at 75%, which tied 2008 as the highest turnout since 1992 (when turnout was 83%).

So, there's still a lot of potential outstanding vote.

The good news is a lot of that vote still remains in counties Biden should carry significantly (by 55+):

Miami-Dade (36.8% turnout so far), Broward (38.2% turnout) and Palm Beach (38.3).

[LisaL]

1. Exit polls of people voting in person?

FL send out millions of absentee ballots.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Exit polls of 2016 & 2012's results.

Which factor in absentee ballots through precession polling.

[LisaL]

4. That's way too much guesswork for me.

NT

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Unfortunately, it's all we have to go by right now to determine the strength of his lead.

We know both Hillary and Obama won 90% of those who were Democratic in 2016 and 2012. At this point, 43.3% of votes counted have come from registered Democrats. But how many of those registered Democrats voted Biden? Based on history, I'd say probably close to 90%

The GOP is currently at 36% returned votes (mail-in and in-person).

In 2016, Republicans were 33% of the electorate - so, right now, they're actually out-performing the numbers by three-points, but so are Democrats by a much larger number - 11 points (Democrats were 32% of the electorate in 2016).

[greenjar_01]

2. ROFL

[Quixote1818]

5. Early voting should start to even out as the most enthusiastic Trump voters likely already came out

nt

[OrlandoDem2]

7. Nope. Not all counties have offered EV until today. The late comers are smaller red counties.

[Karadeniz]

8. I want a blowout!!! Don't know if the higher youth turn out is being weighed. With Parkland in

Their minds, young pro Democrat voters could be impressive.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. I think these numbers pretty much rule out a blowout in Florida.

If Biden wins, it's going to be by a point or less.

Trump probably has more ground to gain in that regard, but even a win by him would be 1-3 points in the margins.

[My Pet Orangutan]

9. Maybe if TX turns blue this year

the DNC won't keep spending half it's time and money trying to win Florida. It's icing on the cake but electoral quicksand.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. I'll never understand the pessimism toward Florida

Since 1992 we've won the state 3 times and lost 4. Three of the 4 defeats were by less than 2%. Yet somehow everyone wants to abandon it in favor of states like Texas or Georgia or North Carolina, which are not even close to swing state status unless the Democratic nominee has a huge lead nationally.

Florida doesn't fit that description at all. It is a rubber band state with amazing checks and balances, shifting around toward balance no matter the national mood.

Obviously Gore really did win, if voter intent had translated to ballot count. So basically it's 4 of 7 but let's give up.

No thank you.

Midterms are always a problem in Florida because the electorate is markedly older, white and more conservative. The gap between conservatives and liberals jumps by 7-9%. That's why it was so remarkably stupid to force the more liberal candidate Andrew Gillum in 2018. He would have been fine in a presidential year with a huge national slant in our favor. But not in a midterm. The primary voters were totally clueless toward situational realities.

[My Pet Orangutan]

15. Lets start with 1. It's the most expensive to cover.

Ten media markets and the most varied demographics in the country.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I'm glad you mentioned that Hillary lost via preference shift

That was the key everywhere. For example, for all the hype that low turnout among blacks doomed Hillary, that exhaustive Teixeira/Halpin study of 2016 revealed that Hillary actually lost more with black preference shift than turnout. It was close between the two but her percentage loss from Obama's share of the black vote was slightly higher than turnout drop.

That info is somewhere in this link, which is a very long examination but by far the best dissection of 2016:

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2017/11/01/441926/voter-trends-in-2016/

The big three southern counties in Florida definitely need to show up. Keep in mind the national mail ballot return rate in 2016 was 79.9%. I think we need to be considerably above that, given so many Democrats substituting mail for in-person.

I believe Biden will receive a larger share of the independent vote than is forecast, and that will carry him to victory in Florida and elsewhere, despite larger than expected -- but very logical -- persuasion loss among Hispanics.

As I mentioned in the Florida Forum today, I am receiving daily mailers from the "Center for Voter Information" in Tallahassee, urging me to mail the ballot. Today I actually received two versions, slightly different but the same message. My ballot was counted more than a week ago. Obviously they are sending those mailers everywhere. Tons more voter outreach in Florida this time. I think everything will work out.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Good to hear.

[liberalmediaaddict]

13. God I hate Florida

Ecery 4 years the election comes down to who wins the craziest state in America.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Republicans are going to show up huge and not many will vote for Biden

That's why the key states will be close. I don't know why so many are unwilling to accept that crossover voting is over hyped. Anecdotes mean nothing. As a former Las Vegas resident I saw all the hype two years ago on Nevada sites regarding Republicans switching over to vote for Rosen instead of Heller. One anecdote after another.

Meanwhile Heller lost 5% of the GOP vote. That's the era we're in. There's no reason to expect Biden or Trump to fare much differently than the typical 8% national crossover rate.

We need to match their turnout level then allow swing independents to carry the day

[texasfiddler]

17. It would surprise me if the greater than 65 group doesn't shift away from trump compared to 2016