Ipsos: Biden +8 in WI (51-43), +4 in PA (49-45).

[Drunken Irishman]

Tight in PA. Really tight. Wish Biden wasn't taking this whole week off from the campaign trail and instead spent it shoring up PA.

[LisaL]

1. Obama should be in PA on Wednesday.

NT

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Yes. But Obama isn't running. Biden should be there too.

It's campaign malpractice to take the head of the ticket off the campaign trail for an entire week two weeks out from the election.

[Wanderlust988]

19. Quit panicking

It's not gonna make or break him. You act like the campaign has gone dark in PA or something. If he's going to win or lose PA, it's not going to be based off of him taking a day or two off the campaign trail. Don't get caught up in the 24 hr media cycle.

[Drunken Irishman]

20. It's not a day or two. It's essentially the whole week.

He has zero events scheduled today, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday.

[Wanderlust988]

23. His campaign are pros

They know what they're doing. Also, there's no guarantee he'd be in PA all week anyway. Even if he was on the trail, he'd be in other states as well. It'll be alright.

[Drunken Irishman]

24. Clinton had some great campaign pros too.

[helpisontheway]

33. I don't know what they are thinking. I remember Hillary was not working

as hard as Trump in the final days. She had events but he was literally everywhere. I don’t understand this..It can’t be for the debate. Goodness. Why not take Wed/Thursday off. Them head right out. He should have been traveling Monday/Tuesday. Ugh.. 😕

[greenjar_01]

2. ...

Talking point of the week.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Na. Just the reality.

[greenjar_01]

9. Well integrated

Bravo.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Yup.

[tman]

5. Biden should be living in PA.

It's more important than FL.

MI + WI has been looking pretty 'safe' for weeks now, though nothing should be taken for granted.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Agreed. Trump has no viable path without PA.

I'm baffled the campaign has decided to have him leave the campaign trail for an entire week, especially with so many people voting.

People ask why the media covers Trump more? This is why. Biden is going to have zero campaign events scheduled this week leading up to the debate. Meanwhile, Trump is zig-zagging everywhere.

I hope they know what they're doing.

[Rice4VP]

15. Kamala is in Florida today

[Drunken Irishman]

16. I'm talking about Biden. The one who's running for president.

The cable news networks rarely carry the VP candidates and didn't carry Harris today. They will show Biden, though. Except he won't be doing any events this week.

[Rule of Claw]

6. PA is about 7.

4 points is not tight.

4 points is 280k votes.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. It's within their MOE (4) & down from a 51-44 lead there last week.

The trend in PA is clear: of all the major swing states, it's the one tightening up the most. In just a week, Biden's lead has gone from +7 there to +3.8 on average. That's a swing of 3.2 points. Not the most ideal of polling positions to be in in a state the Democrats lost four years ago in a similar fashion (a late swing to Trump).

Add the fact Biden is taking the week off from campaigning and who knows where the lead will be in a week.

[Rule of Claw]

13. Trend can't be clear until I see internals.

I need to see where he is with whites. 42 and above pretty good shape. Let's be real here-12 people out of a state with 6.4 million voters difference in a week. And at that Trump is at 45. 45 does not get there. 44-45 is statistical noise. That is 4 people.

I project 52-46 in PA. State might have slipped two points more red since 2016.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Trends can be clear...

And all you have to do is look at the most recent polls to see that the last batch of polls have been narrower than a week-plus ago.

[Turin_C3PO]

7. PA is the only swing state I'm mildly concerned about.

I still think he’ll win it, though. Actually, I believe that even if he somehow loses PA that he’ll win enough other states to compensate.

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. 538 avg In PA is Biden +6.5, PA odds Biden 87/Trump 13, nearly the same as national odds nt

[Rice4VP]

14. IKR, why even waste time preparing? He needs

to just have an answer for Hunter and the stupid court packing and he’ll be fine. This is the same stupid thing that Hillary did. Wasting time on debate prep

[Drunken Irishman]

17. Agreed. Hillary took herself off the campaign trail for a week...

The final debate was on a Wednesday. She took Monday off, traveled to Vegas on Tuesday, had the debate on Wednesday, traveled to New York on Thursday and didn't get back to the trail until Friday, when she was in Ohio.

I gotta wonder how PA, MI & WI turn out is she hits all three states that week. Maybe it changes nothing but don't you want to make sure you've left it all on the court so that you don't have to wonder if you could have done more?

Biden should be in PA today, maybe FL tomorrow and then use Wednesday & Thursday to prepare. I don't get this need to prepare for four-straight days.

[NewsCenter28]

21. Completely disagree, Sean. This final debate is EVERYTHING

Don't forget Hillary "lost" due to:
1. Wikileaks e-mails daily.
2. The Comey bombshell, which now, in retrospect, I truly believe destroyed her campaign.
3. The Brett Baier "Hillary to be indicted" bombshell, even though it was fake.
4. Fainting on the trail back on September 11th.
5. The Obamacare premium increase bombshell surge on this date 4 years ago.
6. Deplorables remarks.

Clinton's final debate was also 3 weeks out, not 10 days out like this one is.

I firmly believe Her "loss" had nothing to do with taking time off for debate prep. Let COVID45 win a few news cycles. The Clinton campaign lost because it suffered a multitude of calamitous "bombshells" with 3 of them occurring this week of the campaign 4 years ago! Not because they lost a few news cycles.

Also, Biden wins by letting this race be a referendum on Trump. It'd be a mistake to try to make it about him in anyway I think.

Ultimately, though, the only thing that matters is Former Vice President Biden seals the deal if he wins the debate on Thursday. I can't stress to you enough the value of a strong performance by the former vice president. If he goes into Nashville well-rested, prepared and ready to rock, he can put the race away right then and there.

That's something that a couple socially distanced, although probably still somewhat COVID-exposed events can't do, regardless of if they're in a swing state or not.

In the meantime, President Obama's rally in PA will help. David Wassermann of Cook Political thinks that Michelle Obama's event swung NH to Clinton in 2016. So his being there does matter.

I would bet that whoever wins on Thursday gets at least a 5+ point bounce in the polls. The Biden Campaign is very wise to put all their chips on the debate, an event that could seal the deal or destroy them if they don't play it right. Again, This. Final. Debate. Is. Everything. Remember what happened when President Obama had his melt down in Denver? Without SuperStorm Sandy, President Romney would be finishing up his 2nd term right now.

[LisaL]

22. Is there going to be a debate?

Trump demands it all be on foreign policy despite set topics. It wouldn't surprise me if Trump bails out.

[NewsCenter28]

25. I think he has to show TBH

It's his only chance of a gamechanger left.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Biden can't prepare for Trump.

1) it would really throw Team Biden off if they took their candidate off the campaign trail for essentially a week at the most crucial time to prepare for a debate that Trump pulls out of at the last minute. Then they've lost valuable time that could have been spent shoring up states like Pennsylvania.

2) Trump is about as unpredictable as you'll get. No amount of hours will prepare Biden for what Trump might pull in a debate, if there is one. I doubt for a second he was prepared for how the first debate devolved and I don't know how he can prepare to fully handle what Trump will pull beyond doing what Biden does best and talking past the noise to the people.

Frankly, it shouldn't take a week to prepare. He should have been out on the trail today and tomorrow and then spent all of Wednesday prepping. But this election is not going to be won or lost by the third debate (well second). History tells us that.

However, four days off the trail is losing valuable time. That concerns me.

[Awsi Dooger]

34. You used that entire post to claim a 5+ point debate poll bounce was inevitable

And the entirety was framed around Trump receiving it, since you focused everything on all the supposed bombshells toward Hillary, exaggerating every one of them except the Comey letter. In other words, the Democrat was susceptible then and susceptible now.

You aren't fooling a handicapper. Your desperation is to insist the final debate winner will receive a 5+ point bounce, because only Trump will benefit from that type of thing.

It's not happening. This fatass plowhorse has a track record. The undecided levels are mid single digits and not low double digits. That in itself prevents a 5 point shift or anything close to that.

And your assertion that Romney would be finishing up his second term without Sandy is equally preposterous. Obama had a stable lead throughout. Nate Silver was emphasizing it. The electoral college was far more favorable to Democrats at that point, in the upper midwest states. There were very low number of undecideds, just like 2020. Obama had good approval numbers and he was in the most favorable situational dynamic in American politics, as an incumbent whose party was in power only one term. Trump is in the same scenario but has thrown it away for 4 years.

Everything in that post is smack out of right wing theater of the absurd, but pathetically camouflaged to fool the gullible.

How do I get condemned around here? Does anyone actually pay attention to the words and obvious trends from certain posters?

[Demsrule86]

27. Other than say the Hunter thing is Russian intel, I would not address...FBI will sort it out.

[LisaL]

28. I think Hunter thing is Chinese intel.

NT

[Demsrule86]

35. Either way saying it is a foreign attack and dismissing it is all it deserves...

[Alhena]

26. We are crushing Republicans in early voting in PA, absolutely crushing

[helpisontheway]

30. Shit..PA scaring me again. That is too close. 😕nt

[helpisontheway]

31. He's taking the entire week off at the end of the campaign? 😮nt

[Drunken Irishman]

32. Yes. He's preparing for the debate Thursday.

He has no events schedule through Thursday. I suspect he'll have one scheduled for Friday.

[Rice4VP]

36. Jill is about to do a drive in rally in Pennsylvania

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

37. Biden polling at 49% on average is the key thing here

He'll be fine. He’s ahead of the number Trump secured in winning it in 2016. That’s the fundamental problem for Trump; both will likely gain on their final polling average as they did four years ago, but Trump outdoing his polls by 3.5% this time around isn’t going to be enough even if Biden improbably stays right where he is today.

[Drunken Irishman]

38. This I agree with. The closer to 50 he can get the better.

[DeminPennswoods]

39. A local bakery does a

"cookie poll" (customers can buy a cookie with a cartoon face of their prefered candidate on it) every presidential election season. It's been remarkably accurate at predicting which candidate will win my PA county. In 2016, Trump won here by 19 pts. In the "cookie poll" last update on Oct 14, Trump was only slightly ahead 705-690. Although I'd be surprised if Trump lost here, if that's a real reflection of voting sentiment, Trump's in big trouble.

Fwiw, it also tracks with my informal observations of yard signs in my area. They are about even which is pretty surprising given the strong conservative tilt here.