General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIBD/TIPP Shows Much Tighter Race
Biden with just a roughly 5 point lead.
]https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/
edhopper
(33,747 posts)there is no way Biden is that far behind with 45 to 64 year olds.
Age Trump Biden
18-44 37.5% 53.0% 3.7% 1.8% 1.3% 0.5%
45-64 52.4% 43.6% 1.7% 0.2% - 0.9%
65+ 42.4% 53.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6%
Demsrule86
(68,977 posts)Must have taken some effort to find this particular poll amongst so much good news.
PTWB
(4,131 posts)The polls in the swing states are close. This massive lead is a scam which is being used to suppress the Democratic vote.
The only answer is to vote vote vote.
Demsrule86
(68,977 posts)PTWB
(4,131 posts)She specifically said that in critical states the race is functionally tied. That is a direct quote.
Demsrule86
(68,977 posts)"Democratic nominee Joe Biden's campaign is urging supporters not to become complacent despite polling that shows the former vice president leading President Trump
DONALD JOHN TRUMP
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nationally and in key battleground states, adding that supporters should campaign like were trailing.
In a memo obtained by The Hill on Saturday, Biden campaign manager Jen OMalley Dillon said that with almost two weeks left until Election Day, supporters should not automatically assume that Biden is guaranteed to win. "
Two days ago.
PTWB
(4,131 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Is there some larger point you are making?
PTWB
(4,131 posts)Shes said that the polls in swing states are essentially tied and we need to vote. Joes own campaign manager says their internal polling shows the election is much closer than national polls suggest.
Vote!!!
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)I have the story right here
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/18/925102703/biden-campaign-warns-supporters-donald-trump-can-still-win-this-race
Neck and neck is not a quantitative term. It is, however, useful for expectation setting and motivation.
PTWB
(4,131 posts)The 'neck and neck' quote is from the SAME MEMO in which Jen O'Malley Dillon (Joe's campaign manager) says that in critical states the race is "functionally tied." Further, saying 'neck and neck' doesn't mean 'tied' is semantics.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/521550-biden-camp-warns-supporters-not-to-get-complacent-campaign-like-were
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/joe-bidens-campaign-manager-says-polls-favoring-him-are-inflated/ar-BB1a83s9?li=BBnbfcL
https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/10/17/biden-campaign-warns-donors-race-far-closer-than-coverage-suggests/#2472b973d639
Demsrule86
(68,977 posts)Jamesyu
(259 posts)Anything to show a horse race.
Vivienne235729
(3,391 posts)But everything I am reading shows Biden is way ahead. How could he not if trump is losing seniors, suburban women, 11% of evangelicals, moderate Republicans, uneducated white men....that's a lot of loss to be "neck and neck".
RandySF
(60,405 posts)Eid Ma Clack Shaw
(490 posts)Theres a reason the polling average (give or take the MOE) is generally the best way to view a race.
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)ElementaryPenguin
(7,800 posts)beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)I could care less going forward for any polls or 538 forecasts
Johnny2X2X
(19,416 posts)It's a valid data point, but a clear outlier. The average is 10.7, that's where we are. Another LV A/B rated poll came out today with Biden up 56-38.
Biden is up 10.
Amishman
(5,563 posts)For example a poll that is always left biased by 5% but always within 1% of reality once that bias is removed would be a very useful poll.
The opposite, a poll that is always left biased by 1% but only within 5% of reality once the biased is removed would be almost meaningless.
This is why Monmouth can be an A+ poll despite having a +1.3 blue bias.
Johnny2X2X
(19,416 posts)Accuracy and methodology are the biggest factors.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/
orwell
(7,787 posts)...is a very Pro-Trump operation.
They are mainly purveyors of stock market information but they have always been pro-republican.
For investing information they are great...not so much for political opinion.
I would put them to the right of Rassmussen.
Demsrule86
(68,977 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(15,750 posts)In the average of all polls, including the Republican-leaning IBD, Bidens lead is growing, and is now +10.7%.
Your concern is noted.
PubliusEnigma
(1,583 posts)David__77
(23,715 posts)Every vote counts.
Progressive dog
(6,940 posts)https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
That is from 10-19 (today)
Happy Hoosier
(7,526 posts)Look, I get it. People are nervous. I am nervous. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. Another poll is in the 538 mix that shows the race at +18 for Biden! They are both outliers.
Statistical
(19,264 posts)Year Democratic Margin (+ for D, - for R)
1992 5.6
1996 8.5
2000 0.5
2004 -2.4
2008 7.2
2012 3.9
2016 1.8
If the lowest margin polls is showing +5 that is pretty damn amazing.
My Pet Orangutan
(9,369 posts)and so does their polling.
regnaD kciN
(26,047 posts)Their methodology has always painted it as a tighter race than most others. Not seeing any drastic movement overall.
linda52
(26 posts)sigh.
PTWB
(4,131 posts)And her comments about their internal polling?
Demsrule86
(68,977 posts)Demsrule86
(68,977 posts)GeorgeGist
(25,329 posts)PTWB
(4,131 posts)It seems ... frivolous? I dont know what you can discern from the number of recs someone has or doesnt have.
Azathoth
(4,611 posts)Anyone who thinks Biden will win by more than about 4-5 points is willfully deluding himself. And the margin is gonna be a lot slimmer in several of the crucial states.
At least 45% of the voters in this country are going to vote for Trump despite everything from the past four years. That is the reality of our country.
Demsrule86
(68,977 posts)Response to Inablueway (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth This message was self-deleted by its author.