The Recurring -- and Misleading -- Focus on Party Identification

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The discussion of the party identification composition of poll samples comes up in every presidential election with which I've been involved. Interested observers often opine that when a given poll shows that Candidate X is ahead, it cannot be correct because there is a higher percentage of voters who identify with Candidate X’s party in the sample than there should be, based on comparison to some previous standard.

There are several reasons why this is a faulty approach to evaluating a poll's results.

Party identification is basically an attitudinal variable, not a stable population parameter. It is designed to vary. This is distinct from demographic variables such as age, gender, race/ethnicity,

http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/

[Proud Public Servant]

1. Eugene Robinson makes this point today

in his column. Here's are the money quotes:

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll, however, saw the race as still tied. Why the anomaly? Because the Rasmussen firm weights its sample to achieve what it believes to be a representative balance of Democrats and Republicans. While other pollsters also ask about party affiliation, most of them weight their samples to reflect the nation’s demographic profile and do not seek a specific balance between R’s and D’s.

The problem is that party affiliation can be weak and changeable. Voters who describe themselves as Democrats one month can call themselves Republicans or independents the next. In this sense, it’s not something polls can assume as a precondition. It’s something polls discover.

If a polling sample shows Democrats outnumbering Republicans by, say, 32?percent to 24?percent (with most of the rest calling themselves independents), GOP partisans shouldn’t worry about a conspiracy. They should worry that this is a snapshot of how Americans feel about the two major parties.

Whole thing here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eugene-robinson-republicans-deluded-by-skewed-polls/2012/09/27/b3dd7d40-08d3-11e2-afff-d6c7f20a83bf_story.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Party ID Is Fluid* Only A Moron Would Suggest It's An Immutable Characteristic Like Race Or Gender

*except for me.