***Opinium National Poll of LVs*** Biden 57 Trump 40

[Johnny2X2X]

https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/biden-extends-lead-over-trump-to-17-points/

Not a rated poll, so take it for what you will, but they do a large sample and control for demographics. It's an online poll with some merit. This one is to be taken with a grain of salt, but my takeaway is that this was 51-42 last month and moved 8 points.

This moved the poll average up to Biden +10.6.

[lagomorph777]

1. Interesting but probably a big outlier.

Happy to see the swing though!

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Definitely an outlier IMO

But they do have sound methods, although it's online.

Average is up to +10.6, so this is less of an outlier than Zogby's joke poll that has Biden up only 3. Trump's horrible awful couple weeks are still not fully realized in the polls, 10.6 could really be 12 right now. I do expect things to drop under 10 before election day though.

It takes time to move the polls several points, Trump has 20 days left to move them at least 7 points. That's not likely to happen.

[Norbert]

3. I would like to see a 17 point win, but...

I don't think it is likely. A 17 point win would mean a 46 to 50 state landslide. That isn't going to happen. I think it does further legitimizes an 11-12 point win in some ways.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. 11 or 12 points is very likely

Biden 55 Trump 43 is what I expect to see. Things could change, but that's what we'd be looking at if the vote was today.

I want Trump's people to keep blowing sunshine to him, I want him to think he's going to win until the last day. It will keep him from doing something truly crazy.

[greenjar_01]

5. Oh my