22 days to go. My daily post to watch for late trends. Tracking two sites -

[NRaleighLiberal]

538 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

today's end of day numbers - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote.

Sam Wang Princeton - https://election.princeton.edu/

today's end of day numbers - Joe metamargin +6.3, estimate 369 EVs.

I'll post this each night at around 10 - and see what sort of trend shows up daily, leading up to the big day.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Thanks for doing this, my dear NRaleighLiberal!

A real public service!

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. I am both a stats/numbers kind of guy, and really on edge/nervous about this election

I despise/hate/loathe trump and republicans so much that it isn't healthy....thankfully our regular walks and hikes help me deal with it!

[GulfCoast66]

11. Go do more gardening! Or something.

Remember stressing yourself does nothing to change the situation. It is just bad for you.

You stressing is not harming trump. Just yourself.

Personally I spent the day cutting back my Vitex and potting up Gerbers and herbs. And buying fishing clothes.

Washing the boat tomorrow.

[Karadeniz]

3. Thanks... I'll be watching!

[USALiberal]

4. Thanks, would be nice to see! nt

[a kennedy]

5. Thank you, thank you, thank you.....

[DonaldsRump]

6. Thank you for doing this! Will try to watch each day for it

One question, and apologies in advance for my ignorance: what does "metamargin" mean in this context?

[regnaD kciN]

13. The "meta-margin," for Sam Wang...

Is how far a candidate is ahead when you factor in the possibility for a popular/electoral vote split. Right now, demographics give the Republicans an edge in the EV, so this means that, according to Wang's model, should they make up that amount (the "meta-margin&quot in the polls, you'd have a race where there was a 50/50 chance for each candidate to win the Electoral College.

[DonaldsRump]

15. Wow....I grow increasingly aware of my lack of knowledge!

Thanks for explaining that.

[chillfactor]

7. thank you..

so much! It gives me some hope!

[BSdetect]

8. k&r

[MustLoveBeagles]

9. Thanks

[My Pet Orangutan]

10. I would not bank any, ANY EV count that includes Florida.

Florida is a cesspool of electoral wretchedness. 2018 - Biggest Blue Wave since Watergate - lose the Senate and Governor's races on yet another bloody, compromised count.

[regnaD kciN]

12. Agreed...

If we win Florida, I'll be delighted, but it seems like that state has a habit of taking a "lean Democratic" race according to the polls and having it turn out to be a "narrow Republican victory," and taking a "toss-up" race according to the polls and having it turn out to be a "not-particularly-narrow Republican victory."

[Poiuyt]

14. Unfortunately, I don't know enough about statistics to understand Wang's Site

Another site that heavy on statistics:
https://electiongraphs.com/2020ec/

I also like to follow the betting sites:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/13/Prez-Election
https://electionbettingodds.com/4hr.html
https://www.presidentialelectionodds.net/

The Economist has a good projection site:
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

[regnaD kciN]

16. You might want to add this site...

The Economist - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

today's end of day numbers - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, currently at 54.2% of popular vote (predicting 53.9% on 11/3).

I'd be a little leery of the projections from Princeton Election Consortium; Sam Wang was the big loser in 2016, having given Hillary Clinton a "99%+" chance of winning on the morning of Election Day, while declaring "if Donald Trump gets more than 240 electoral votes, I'll eat a bug" (which he then had to do on CNN after the election). Now, I'll grant that he's probably refined his methods since then -- which may be why he no longer gives percentage odds of a candidate winning -- but, until he shows some success with whatever formulas he's using now, he remains suspect as far as I'm concerned.

[NRaleighLiberal]

17. thanks! Looking at the data mid day, but will be patient and do the update at 10 eastern tonight!

And I agree with the Sam Wang site. Let's see how he does this time around.

[Johnny2X2X]

18. It's OK to call it like it is

This is a landslide that is already happening right now. This is a Blue Wave that will shake the country for years.

2016 is the only reason this isn't the major narrative right now. People are still shocked from 2016. 2020 is not 2016, for a variety of reasons.

20.5 days to go now! Realistically, if the polls don't start moving towards Trump now, he's going to run out of time for a comeback completely no matter what happens.