Why Mitt is Still Confident (VOTER ID); And Why He Still Can't Win

[berni_mccoy]

Last edited Wed Sep 26, 2012, 11:43 AM - Edit history (2)

What happens if you take Nate Silver's forecast (considered among all to be extremely accurate) and correlate it against the states with Voter ID laws that require photo id *and* have a Republican run Governorship?

The rule I followed was this: if under Nate's model, the state is going for Obama, *and* Obama has less than an 95% chance to win it, and the state has a voter id law that requires a photo and the state has a Republican governor, then I would flip the state for Mitt.

This is the map that results:


This is from Nate's current Model forecast that has Obama with 312 EVs:


Correlated with Voter ID Law By State:


And again with Republican run States:


Basically, we lose PA (Obama only has 93.9% chance of win here) and FL from Nate's map, and that is still not enough for a Romney Win.

If we throw in Michigan, which has both photo id requirement *and* a Republican governor, then Romney wins. However, under Nate's model, Obama has a 96.6% chance of a win. If that were to go down, I would be worried. This is why it's still a "tight race". This is why voter ID law matters.

This race shouldn't even be close. Romney has pulled money out of MI, OH and PA. He's giving up OH, but he knows he can get MI and PA using Voter ID Law. That's why he's still campaigning in OH (which has no photo-based voter id law) and has allowed him to spend money in CO and VA (CO and VA has no photo ID requirement). Their strategy makes sense if they believe they can steal PA and FL.

[brewens]

1. How voter ID laws may actually boost turnout. I'm hoping many minorities that may have not

been fired up to vote, will now be determined to vote and help get friends and families to the polls. There is nothing like telling Americans they can't do something to get the exact opposite response. Many of the people without ID's wouldn't have voted anyway. For everyone they successfully blocked, they may have made another fight their way to the polls.

It's the voter restriction by cutting early voting hours I'm more worried about now. I've never lived in an area where it's tough to vote. In my town, I go to the community center, walk right in, say hello to my buddies mom that works the polls and vote. I used early voting last Presidential election because I was scheduled to work out of town. that was a snap too. I wish it was like that everywhere.

[longship]

2. No way MI goes for Romney.

"Let Detroit go bankrupt" sticks in the craw, even for Republicans many of whom work for the auto companies, or companies which supply them.

Michiganders generally liked George Romney. I cannot say this for sure, but I am pretty sure that they hate Mitt.

No hope for him here.

[berni_mccoy]

6. I agree.

Something significant would need to happen to change that, and I don't think it will.

Romney is like Jim Carey in Dumber and Dumber: "So you're telling me there's a chance!?"

[renie408]

3. What is he supposed to say? "HOLY SHIT!! I am getting my ass KICKED!"

[ecstatic]

4. This analysis is a great idea

The ID laws have made me both worried and furious, not just because I want Pres. Obama to win, but because I'm so disgusted that republicans claim to want to spread democracy around the world while suppressing votes in the U.S.

I hope to see more predictions about this going forward.

[AzDar]

5. How I loathe these anti-American vote-blocking fucks.

[Bluenorthwest]

7. Mitt sure does not look confident to me...he looks freaked out.

I'm pretty used to seeing hard core competition for various jobs, and the fact is that the person who is losing and will eventually lose tends to talk game, lot's of 'I've got this' and that sort of thing. Winners tend to be saying 'gee, it's a competition, so who knows' and they say that even when they are damn near certain of victory.
Bluster is a symptom of inner defeat.

[BumRushDaShow]

8. Even with shenanigans, PA is still not some kind of red state

There are 1.2 million more registered Dems than rethugs and the only reason why the rethugs are in there now is because of the 40% turnout in 2010. For the first time in years and years, the head of the state Democratic Party has been out and about on national TV, so the party has finally awoken.

They are this close >< to finally getting an injunction here in PA (testimony resumes Thursday) after the state changed the procedures again, TWICE, while on the stand testifying yesterday in Commonwealth Court. They have now removed some more of the requirements that were needed to get what is now a new special "Voter ID" card that is different from the original "Voter ID" card and they announced that 40 more locations would be opened up for people to get cards the day before the election for last minute requesters. Meanwhile various counties are moving forward with issuing their own cards via senior centers and colleges/universities in their counties due to a loophole in the law.

Supposedly the hearing on Thursday is to decide what the content of the injunction will be (whatever that means - maybe for what and how long).

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20120926_Judge_hints_he_may_block_Pennsylvania_voter_ID.html?cmpid=124488459

Of course this is the same ass who cited vagabond laws from the 19th century to keep this crap in place but the whole fiasco has been exposed for the fraud that it is but the issue overlooked is that many of the rethugs live in areas that have no nearby PennDOT office to get a card themselves and I think more and more of these folks have woken up and are realizing it.

[berni_mccoy]

9. Yes, this is true and a valid counter to the Photo ID concern in PA.

I mean only to show that if the Voter ID b.s. is successful in Republican controlled states, Obama can still win with all other factors considered.

[ahimsa]

10. It looks like you forgot to actually flip OH in your model

which, if flipped to Red, would actually have Romney winning. I hope I'm misreading your post (and if not, I hope your premise is wrong!).

On edit: Oh, I see, your chart is both photo ID and Republican governor - I was looking at this line in your post:

"Basically, we lose OH, PA (Obama only has 93.9% chance of win here) and FL from Nate's map, and that is still not enough for a Romney Win."

but that's a separate model that you did not chart. Never mind!

[berni_mccoy]

11. You were right. My text was wrong. We don't lose OH by the Photo ID model

because OH doesn't have Photo ID.

That's why Mitt is still campaigning there. The OH GOP's attempts to kill early voting have backfired. They thought they could pull out money there and only make appearances to work there. Now they are fighting for it.