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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTPM "Trump's Chances are Dwindling. That Could Make Him Dangerous"
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerousPresident Trumps quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday nights debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, putting him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996.
If we look at potential tipping-point states, the race is a bit closer, but not that much closer. After a couple of strong polls for Joe Biden earlier this week in Pennsylvania the state thats currently most likely to decide the election Trump now trails there by 5 to 6 points. Hes down by about 7 points in Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile. Those states, along with Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire where Biden has also polled strongly lately suggest that Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump white working-class voters who flocked to Trump four years ago. Indeed, Biden is as close to winning South Carolina or Alaska as Trump is to winning Michigan and Wisconsin, based on recent polls of those states.
At a time when Trump desperately needed a boost, the debate probably didnt help him either it may have hurt him. Every scientific poll weve seen had Trump losing the debate, some by narrow margins and some by wide ones.
That includes the poll FiveThirtyEight conducted with Ipsos, which surveyed the same group of voters before and after the debate. While the poll didnt show a massive swing most voters stuck to their initial preferences more voters did rate Bidens performance favorably, and Biden gained ground relative to Trump based on the number of voters who said they were certain to vote for him, roughly tantamount to a 3-point swing toward Biden in head-to-head polls.
snip
long, interesting, optimistic, worthwhile read.
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TPM "Trump's Chances are Dwindling. That Could Make Him Dangerous" (Original Post)
NRaleighLiberal
Sep 2020
OP
I think between November and January will be one of the most dangerous times in US history
Withywindle
Sep 2020
#2
MontanaMama
(23,377 posts)1. Yes.
Dude has been privy to national secrets for 4 years. He will sell each of them to the highest bidder...whether it be money or favors. We have rough waters ahead.
dweller
(23,748 posts)3. whoa.. i need to slow down, read slower
read your comment and saw 'highest bladder'
and it still made sense
😳
✌🏼
Withywindle
(9,988 posts)2. I think between November and January will be one of the most dangerous times in US history
He'll have more than two months as a lame duck, when he knows he's going down. Who will he try to take down with him? My money is on "as many people as possible."