511,417 people have voted in the general election

[jorgevlorgan]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html


Click for details.

Voted by Party Registration
Reporting states with party registration data: FL, IA, NC

Party Count Percent
Democrats 109,849 54.5
Republicans 32,316 16.0
Minor 596 0.3
No Party Affiliation 58,758 29.2
TOTAL 201,519 100.0

[Dr. Jack]

1. A 2nd coronavirus wave is coming and Republicans are not prepared

Yes, we never left the first wave but things are about to get way, way worse and Republicans are hedging that everything will go nice and smooth for them on election day. They are making a massive mistake by telling their voters to wait until November 3rd to vote in person.

[SWBTATTReg]

2. Is this why the numbers are lopsided towards democratic voters? I noticed the differences between

both parties in their vote preferences shown (out of 500K+ votes tallied, only 200K+ votes split out by party (I assume that the differences between the 500K+ votes thus tallied and the 200K+ split out by party affiliation is due to some states not identifying voters by party affiliation).

I thought that the republicans were trying to calm or tamp down trump's fake assertions that voting by mail/etc. was wrong/etc., or is this a valid sign that they are losing badly thus far (republicans vs. the outrage of Americans at rump)? I do know that it's probably too early to analyze etc., just curious. Thanks and take care!

I grabbed this information off the site listed for add'l information for others. One point made was that w/ the CV, voting patterns from the past are not valid comparison factors, everything is up in the air! Makes sense.
-- snip --
A problem with analyzing this first difference by itself is it lacks context. Just because registered Democrats are leading Republicans in early voting, that does not mean the Republicans will not make up ground on Election Day. Indeed, registered Democrats typically lead Republicans during early voting, and Republicans vote on Election Day, a pattern that persists across many states and elections.

A solution to provide more context is to examine a second difference which is the relative turnout of the political parties in a past comparable election. If Democrats’ turnout is more or less than their turnout in a comparable election, this provides clues as to the relative enthusiasm that Democrats have and the outcome that might be expected when the votes are tallied.

The difference-in-difference method works well when there is a baseline comparable election. The 2020 election is obviously different than the 2016 election. With an unprecedented number of voters casting mail ballots, particularly Democrats, there is no comparable election to draw solid conclusions from in most states.

I strongly caution that Democrats’ unprecedented high levels of early voting should not be taken as an indicator of the final election results.