General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums* A Rated NBC WSJ POLL* Biden 51% *Klansman* 43%
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7213809/200625-NBCWSJ-September-Poll.pdfTwilightZone
(25,472 posts)Hope that continues through election day.
ananda
(28,868 posts)It will continue because most people have
already made up their minds.
edhopper
(33,594 posts)Last edited Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:26 AM - Edit history (1)
National polls don't mean as much as the 5 or 6 swing states that matter.
I edited from "don't mean anything" to a more nuanced sentence.
TwilightZone
(25,472 posts)An 8-9% win by Biden means he wins most, if not all, of the swing states. The swing states generally don't buck overall trends in blowouts. 8-9% would be a blowout. Obama's comfortable win over Romney, for example, was only 4%.
Thekaspervote
(32,779 posts)Go Joe..go Kamala
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)for Biden and taking back the Senate and holding the house = MANDATE. A WAVE election can dramatically change the direction of America and this can be the result of 2020, in same manner 2018 was
Statistical
(19,264 posts)The electoral college gives conservatives a ~2% advantage due to the fact that the median states are slightly more conservative than the national average.
Now keep an eye on the state polls but national polls are more frequent and the state polls seem to be tracking the same trend.
This election the polls have been atypically stable which as someone else said is a reflection that most people have decided long ago.
Thekaspervote
(32,779 posts)Happy Hoosier
(7,336 posts)But that is demonstrably wrong. They are an indicator. Nothing more, but nothing less either.
Thekaspervote
(32,779 posts)edhopper
(33,594 posts)I edited my post
Happy Hoosier
(7,336 posts)Azathoth
(4,610 posts)The simple fact is that many of these undecided/other voters are just Trump voters who aren't comfortable admitting to themselves that they are going to vote for Trump.
TwilightZone
(25,472 posts)I think his fans are more likely to express their opinions of support than others. 43% is also in line with his long-term approval rating, if slightly above.
Azathoth
(4,610 posts)Same with Democrats. Every election a good percentage of people vote for a candidate they profess to actively dislike but choose anyway because of [insert particular rationalization here].
Given Trump's unprecedented toxicity, the people who are going to hold their nose and vote for Biden have already made their peace with it, while the people who are going to vote for Trump because "Dems forced me to at the last moment" are still pretending to be on the fence.
I guarantee that the vast majority of undecideds are Trump voters waiting for the opportunity to rationalize their choice. The very best we can hope for is those people stay home.
edhopper
(33,594 posts)but it's isn't ALL undecideds as you indicate. Maybe more like 51%-45% or 51%-47.
Azathoth
(4,610 posts)Although I would argue that psychologically, we should treat them as "all" to avoid even a hint od complacency.