General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCan any of you fine DU people talk me down from the ledge regarding our problem with mail-in votes?
So, I'm losing sleep at night, quite literally actually, thinking about this election. The polls look very good right now, and in a fair election, I'd be feeling pretty confident at the moment. However, the polls that scare the crap out of me are the ones that show that far more Democratic voters than Republican voters are planning to vote by mail, by somewhere between a 2-1 margin and a 5-1 margin nationally. There are a few reasons this scares me.
1) Mild fear: Even in normal elections, mail-in ballots are rejected at a much higher rate than in-person ballots, due to the high standards of verification to prevent fraud (contrary to what the Orange Fascist says). The two biggest reasons they are rejected are late arrivals and either missing signatures or signatures that they don't think match what they have on file. With many more Dems voting by mail than Republicans, this means far more Dem votes will be rejected than Republican votes. This could be a problem in close swing states.
2) Mild fear: Add in the possibility that the rate of rejection might be even higher this year. This is because there will be millions of people voting by mail for the first time, increasing the probability of mistakes. Again, this means many more Dem votes than GOP votes lost because so many more of the former are voting, which can cost us in close swing states.
3) Greatest fear: with the slow-down in the mail service due to Trump and DeJoy's sabotage, many votes may not get there in time. The USPS has warned 40 states that their mail-in deadlines are too close to the election for them to be able to guarantee their timely delivery! (There are also some less alarming warnings in six other states.) This is horrifying to me. I hope I'm wrong about this -- and it seems that I must be, since almost no one else seems to be as scared as I am -- but doesn't this mean that *millions* or perhaps even *tens of millions* of votes might be rejected due to lateness? If that happens, and the ratio of those rejected ballots are, say, 3-1 Dem-to-GOP, am I wrong in thinking there's absolutely no way we win this election? We're ahead, but not enough to overcome that many votes. I feel like that would make some safe blue states into swing states, and swing states into safe GOP, and we're about to see a GOP (faux) landslide. Now there have been some good developments. Some states have extended their deadlines for receiving the mail-in votes, several states have installed voting ballot boxes that allow the voters to return the ballot manually, and I think most or all allow the voters to return the ballots manually to the elections office. Still, will all that be enough? I should also mention, the USPS says that any ballot mailed a week before should arrive in time, but many states allow their voters to receive the ballot within that time-frame; furthermore, that promise came from DeJoy, whom I don't trust at all.
4) Moderate fear: Let's assume that just about all the ballots arrive in time, and only a normal, minimal number are rejected. We still have another problem: the red mirage. In most states, any mail-in ballots are counted after the in-person votes. If results start being reported, it will look like Trump is winning handily on election night. While these early and deceiving indications should be reversed when the mail-in ballots are counted, and Biden should take the lead in more than enough states for 270 EVs, we all know what Trump will do. He'll claim victory election night, contend that a huge number of the mail-in votes are fraudulent, and accuse the Democrats of trying to overturn the election results. That he'd be lying wouldn't make a difference to at least 40% of the country, who would still support him. This would put us in a constitutional crisis.
What do you all think? Do you have any info or news that will help me get some more sleep lately?
[link:https://www.ktvu.com/news/usps-warns-46-states-dc-about-election-mail-delays-that-could-affect-whether-ballots-get-counted|
drray23
(7,641 posts)or at least start processing ahead of time. The few that dont are in the process of changing or considering changing it.
see
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214070522
in many states ( like my state of Virginia) ballots are trackable. You can also just drop them off in person at the registrar office or vote there in person well ahead of time.
GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)That makes me feel much better about the counting (though I wish PA, MI, and WI could process beforehand). However, I'm still worried about the ballots making it in time.
drray23
(7,641 posts)GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)redstatebluegirl
(12,265 posts)The answers have helped.
GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)I'm hoping to hear more about the votes making it on time.
redstatebluegirl
(12,265 posts)We are going early in the morning hoping there won't be much of a crowd. I honestly do not trust the mail right now.
GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)msongs
(67,544 posts)1. drop off completed ballot at approved secured depository before election day
2. drop off completed ballot at local precinct on election day
3. USPS your ballot well in advance of election day, as early as possible
4. vote in person
5. USPS your ballot on short notice
hawaii is so blue it doesnt matter which you choose. your state may vary
GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)Maeve
(42,329 posts)Absentee ballots must go to the secure drop-off for that county; precincts may not accept them.
Yeah, it's awkward and we're trying to change it, but...at least we have a month of early voting in person (which Hubby and I are choosing this year)
GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)Skraxx
(2,987 posts)Trump is screwing ALL voters equally by screwing with vote by mail. GOP will lose votes too if they fuck with mail in ballots, so in the end, it would probably be a wash with regard to who's votes get ditched, which means Biden wins.
GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)Skraxx
(2,987 posts)as they think. Lotsa Trump votes will get rejected and the GOP is worried about that.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/politics/republican-reaction-trump-mail-in-voting/index.html
A lot of rural Repubs vote by mail ONLY. If Trump discourages it, they may not vote at all.
GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)I don't want wish for anyone to be disenfranchised, but if some are, I do hope it's close to equal between Dem and GOP voters.
Skraxx
(2,987 posts)So Dems would probably be affected more. I just think in the end it won't be as effective as they think it will be and will hurt GOP voters ENOUGH that Biden will still win.
In some areas it could make the difference though to elect Dems to CONGRESS. Especially in rural areas, where the GOP votes by mail in (because there's no polls close by) and the Dems in the cities, suburbs etc. may actually go the polls or to where it's easier to drop off a ballot.
GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)I can't imagine we'll have a republic left if Trump gets another term.
Skraxx
(2,987 posts)GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)DFW
(54,590 posts)Most of them, however, know that this is Biden's election to lose, and that if he wins and appoints an aggressive Attorney General, the new Justice Department will get busy hunting down crooks who tried to throw ANY part of the election to the Republicans by way of election fraud. That means they risk serious prison terms if prosecuted (big if, but they can't discount the possibility, knowing we will be out for some serious blood this time).
Just as we know there is no guarantee that their efforts to win by fraud will fail, they have no guarantees their efforts will serve them up their victory, and it will be a Pyrrhic victory, at that. Four more years of Trump, and there won't be much of an America left.
Some 20 years ago, a far-out political fantasy novel appeared where Britain (I think it written in the UK) fell into complete political dysfunction, and invited the Soviet Union to come take over the administration of the country. Like I said, the premise was a little whacko. But these days, I have to wonder if there hasn't been a small group of people in Trump's and Putin's circles who remembered the book, and started thinking, hmmmm, how would I profit from THAT kind of scenario??
GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)that's not "fraud," at least not directly. I'm hoping enough has changed since this was written.
[link:https://www.ktvu.com/news/usps-warns-46-states-dc-about-election-mail-delays-that-could-affect-whether-ballots-get-counted|
DFW
(54,590 posts)Be it to the voters, or be it to the voting office charged with counting them, it has already been documented beyond any doubt that this will be due to deliberate interference with the Postal Service's normal functions, and that right before a presidential election, and it was ordered by one of the parties involved with the election. I find that indeed to be fraud. Honesty would be an all-out effort to get all ballots cast, and all ballots counted--exactly the opposite of what the current administration is pushing for.
GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)Nay
(12,051 posts)but in past years you had to have a reason. This year they have assumed COVID is a reason all by itself, so they are opening 4 voting areas (libraries) and I'll be voting there Oct. 19.
marlakay
(11,554 posts)Stop in the west how many displaced people there will be who can't vote?
I remember how I felt when I realized I didn't get my address change in on time and couldn't vote for Gore, I was in Cali so he won there but still felt awful. My dad died few months before election and I moved to another town to live with my boyfriend who is now my husband but I forgot until too late to change it. I was also working fulltime then. And not on this site until 2004.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)There could be delays in receiving the absentee ballots in the first place. That's what I am hoping not to see, reports that Democrats are expecting mail ballots but they are inexplicably late in arriving.
Fortunately I haven't seen anything like that so far from North Carolina.
GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)The problem is on both ends, receiving the ballot and getting it back in time.
MoonlitKnight
(1,584 posts)Is to cause enough people to fear vote by mail that we end up with long lines for in person voting which could depress turnout.
Dont give in to the fear mongering.
Make a plan. Have a backup plan. And no matter what obstacles they put in your way, vote.
GOPBasher
(7,403 posts)I'm hoping that since these polls were taken, more Dem voters have decided to do this instead of relying on the mail. This is still much safer than in-person voting, with far fewer people around.
cally
(21,603 posts)I've never seen such a great GOTV. Make some calls It's made me feel better
Le Roi de Pot
(744 posts)Should go pretty fast ..we also count votes ahead of time
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