General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCharlie Cook: "This Cake Is Baked."
His [Trumps] standing is impervious to events. The vast majority of voters decided a long time ago whether they liked him or not, whether they would approve of his actions, and whether they would support his candidacy. For many voters, this cake is baked.
Alan Greenspans irrational exuberance has given way, in my mind, to irrational caution. This is not 2016.
More:
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-ceiling-too-low-him-be-reelected
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/16/1977822/-Charlie-Cook-This-Cake-Is-Baked?utm_campaign=trending
malaise
(269,506 posts)RFN!
Cirque du So-What
(26,060 posts)Im inclined to attribute it to a ploy for getting attention.
Dave in VA
(2,048 posts)Some people will say anything to get their 5 minutes on television.
TwilightZone
(25,550 posts)The vast, vast majority of people made up their minds about Trump years ago, some decades ago.
spanone
(136,010 posts)Blue Owl
(50,664 posts)n/t
TheBlackAdder
(28,277 posts)Botany
(70,700 posts)IronLionZion
(45,704 posts)Because that's a sign he's smarter than the average bear
cwydro
(51,308 posts)And true!
malaise
(269,506 posts)Gothmog
(146,209 posts)trump is going to cheat and we need to GOTV to prevent trump from trying to steal this election
SergeStorms
(19,208 posts)woodsprite
(11,949 posts)10s of thousands more Dems voted than Repubs. The repubs are saying it's rigged. ***IT WAS A FREAKIN' PRIMARY*** and we're a heavily Dem state. Dems are more numerous in our state, care more about their own and other peoples safety, and are more open to email and mail-in voting. State repubs are shouting about trying to make it so mail-in ballots are not accepted in the general. Not sure about down ballot races, but the Repubs did vote in a QAnon candidate, ex-addict, who (according to her campaign page) used to run with the drug cartels, etc. She'll be running against Chris Coons for the Senate. We can't let a QAnon Trumper steal his spot.
Meet DE's newest Whack-job Barbie! Lauren Witzke. She's not a witch!
SergeStorms
(19,208 posts)Blonde, not too bright, and will do whatever Hair Fuhrer likes. I don't think I'd go bragging about being an addict and a mule for drug cartels on my political website though. Yeah, republicans keep coming up with more and more of the "best people", don't they? It's amazing how far republicans have fallen in the past two decades.
woodsprite
(11,949 posts)DelawareOnline and WDEL say shes A believer, healed and forgiven because shes been washed with the blood of Christ and Dems are awful for pointing out her past, yada, yada, yada.
They apparently dont give Biden or Coons the same benefit of their Christian beliefs.
Im just really concerned that the slower-lower ref vote is creeping north in DE like the plague.
SergeStorms
(19,208 posts)which, at least to me, sounds like a definite possibility, maybe they'll try to keep the complete bozos from encroaching into the more northern climes. "Jebus" has a stronger foothold down there, and education isn't as highly valued. Christians certainly do love to wash things in blood, don't they? Morbid thugs.
woodsprite
(11,949 posts)But was brown or black, they never would have voted for her. No matter whether she was washed in the blood of Christ or not.
SergeStorms
(19,208 posts)IronLionZion
(45,704 posts)so if our side is enthusiastic to vote, we win. Whether it's early voting, mail in votes, in person, absentee, etc. We need more of our voters in more states to vote for our candidates.
The other side will do whatever they can to discourage or suppress our side from voting.
pat_k
(9,313 posts)marble falls
(57,854 posts)kentuck
(111,111 posts)We have to stop votes from being suppressed and votes from being stolen.
It is not so simple.
BlueWavePsych
(2,642 posts)lindysalsagal
(20,829 posts)I agree.
calimary
(81,645 posts)Even on supposedly good days. I think in nearly four years of this torture, he may have done so once, or twice. And thats been IT.
In the overall general polling, not in the various subcategories.
I dont remember seeing that before, especially in an incumbent. So hes going to HAVE TO cheat to win. He will NOT get anywhere near there except, and unless, he CHEATS.
And the only way to override that cheating (which hes good at and has all the right connections for) it to OVERWHELM it. By an avalanche of votes.
The GOP knows this. If they can get close enough to cheat to win, thats exactly what theyll do.
lame54
(35,395 posts)These fools are acting like it's a typical fair election
Even though Trump successfully cheated to get the job in the first place
iemitsu
(3,888 posts)States like Florida have always cheated and other republican led states aren't much better.
lame54
(35,395 posts)Those with an actual megaphone don't
iemitsu
(3,888 posts)JI7
(89,305 posts)the closer the actual numbers are, the easier it is to steal.
iemitsu
(3,888 posts)msongs
(67,544 posts)RedSpartan
(1,693 posts)iemitsu
(3,888 posts)People just didn't like Hillary.
OverBurn
(978 posts)Jarqui
(10,131 posts)Too many head winds of corruption.
Trump is truly evil.
Needs a stake through his political heart (stated figuratively)
Don't let up because of reports like this.
Sympthsical
(9,209 posts)If this were a normal year, I think we'd see a repeat of the Blue Wave of 2018. I think the majority of Americans are very enthused about shit canning this embarrassment.
With the pandemic, things get murkier. It comes down to people who are making the effort to do mail in ballots, who risks going to the polls, etc. Trumpsters don't fear the virus as much as we do, so it feels like they'd go regardless (and I cannot wait until the anti-mask assholes make a stink about not being let into a polling place. That'll be a story).
Pile in all the suppression and dirty tricks, and Trump does have a shot.
I'm actually more optimistic about Biden in 2020 than I was about Clinton in 2016. I genuinely thought she could lose and was called a concern troll for saying so. I never thought we had it in the bag nor believed the whole, "She has a bajillion percent chance of winning!" I was not surprised that election night as the rest of my friends watched in total shock.
That said, I'm optimistic with some caution we're going to have a President Biden. But I do get nervous because of Covid.
pat_k
(9,313 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts)In a truly free and fair presidential election, Biden would be unbeatable.
But we haven't seen a truly free and fair election in more than 20 years.
Trump's 2016 "win" was made possible by suppression/voter role purges/disqualification of legitimate votes.
Obama's margin of victory in 2008 and 2012 would have been far greater, but for suppression/voter role purges/disqualification of legitimate votes.
Bush's 2004 "win" was made possible by suppression/voter role purges/disqualification of legitimate votes.
Bush's 2000 "win" was made possible suppression/voter role purges/disqualification of legitimate votes and five black robed traitors.
Republican control of state governments has been trending up. Their concerted efforts to deny "certain" people the right to vote in a free and fair election (and to have their vote accurately counted) have been increasingly successful.
One of the most effective tactics is the closure of polling places in "certain areas," creating long lines. They also allocate fewer and older machines in high density, more democratic areas.
Time is money, and lines are the new poll tax. I have little doubt that when confronted with a very long line, more than 5 people per 100 turn around and go back to work or to take care of other responsibilities. And the more confident a voter is that a win for their candidate is a "done deal" the more likely they are to leave. This year, in addition to cutting back the number of polling places (for both early and election day voting), some states are severely limiting the number of drop boxes (which makes it a lot harder for an absentee or mail in voter to bypass the broken postal system).
Even with COVID, the reduction in polling places will have a significant negative effect. Younger people vote later -- often waiting until election day. The refusal to count votes after election day, as long as they are postmarked by election day, will also disproportionately disqualify ballots from younger people.
Democrats beware. Overconfidence suppresses democratic votes. And that makes it easier for republicans to steal an election.
We need a new voting rights act. The ideal federal law would impose a substantial fine on any state that fails to provide adequate resources. (For example, if registered voters have to wait in lines more than 30 minutes, have to travel more than 10 miles to a drop box, or have to overcome some other unacceptable barrier, the state is hit with a fine that costs them far more than providing enough resources would.) They won't run fair elections without a serious financial incentive.
JI7
(89,305 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts)And overconfidence suppresses turnout, making it easier for Republicans to steal an election.
JI7
(89,305 posts)As I posted above.
Suppressed democratic turnout due to overconfidence just makes it easier for them to successfully steal an election.
Kick in to the DU tip jar?
This week we're running a special pop-up mini fund drive. From Monday through Friday we're going ad-free for all registered members, and we're asking you to kick in to the DU tip jar to support the site and keep us financially healthy.
As a bonus, making a contribution will allow you to leave kudos for another DU member, and at the end of the week we'll recognize the DUers who you think make this community great.