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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsProfessor Allan Lichtman announces that his model predicts a Trump loss in 2020
Link to tweet
?s=21
Professor Allan Lichtman, whose presidential prediction model forecast a Trump win in 2016, announces that his model predicts a Trump loss in 2020:
https://t.co/3SArY67ng1?amp=1
He Predicted Trumps Win in 2016. Now Hes Ready to Call 2020.
Most historians just study the past. But Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the future.
Snip
Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But weve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong. One man, however, was not. The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trumps victory in 2016 and also prophesied the president would be impeached. Thats two for two. But Professor Lichtmans record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in 84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016.
In the video Op-Ed above, Professor Lichtman walks us through his system, which identifies 13 keys to winning the White House. Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out.
Johnny2X2X
(19,382 posts)He makes some good points, but of the elections he correctly predicted, only 1 was an unlikely outcome.
soothsayer
(38,601 posts)Or do they just do super bowls?
rpannier
(24,355 posts)1n 1988, during the summer most people were convinced Dukakis would pummel Bush
The shift towards Bush came after the Republican convention
Bush looked like he would lose 2000 (electoral college) in the final few weeks of the election. Faux spews ran story after story outraged that Bush would likely win the popular vote, but lose the electoral college and how awful and undemocratic it was
Johnny2X2X
(19,382 posts)This guy picked Gore in 2000 and claimed victory because Gore won the popular vote.
rpannier
(24,355 posts)Claiming popular vote, as we've seen, means nothing
After Gore/Bush he switched to predicting the EV winner.
Like I said, there were only a couple cases where his predictions were all that impressive.
Hip2bSquare
(291 posts)Thank you for this post. I'm still skeptical but this is fantastic news.
I plan to take the Wednesday after election day off, because I'm praying I'll have had way too much champagne the night before.
Not sure who's familiar with The Wiz, but "Brand New Day" will be blasting from my speakers.
We still have a way to go... we can't let up... he MUST go.
soothsayer
(38,601 posts)NNadir
(33,621 posts)...of a Kerry landslide.
Comforting tea leaves are great but...
VOTES COUNT
GB_RN
(2,456 posts)It's also just as this (fake) Stalin quote goes, ""It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything."
We have to ensure that Dolt45 and his puppet master aren't rigging it.
peggysue2
(10,894 posts)Depend on the voters getting out or mailing in their votes. Then the accurate counting of said votes.
So . . . I love the good news but we still have to act as if Biden were 10-15 pts behind and keep a watchful eye out for any high-jinks. Because there are 90 days until the election, an eternity in politics and certainly in the Age of Trumplandia.
dhol82
(9,353 posts)VOTE!
Stuart G
(38,477 posts)...Trump the dump stinks so bad...that even the garbage dump lovers don't want him
....Trump the dump has already sung a song...."It will be gone in 5 days"...other songs, too stupid to list.
Trump the dump has sung, and his show is going to be over Jan 21..Trump stinks and that is what the truth is.....Yes, you are correct.........VOTE!!!
.... Come November 3 at 9pm ET, the landslide will come true, even though some western states haven't closed their polls yet.
.........Yes a whole lot will vote, and Trump will lose by a whole lot.!!!....................
calimary
(81,645 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(49,113 posts)Dopers_Greed
(2,640 posts)Not infallible, but Lichtman has a an interesting prediction model that's as good as any.
oldsoftie
(12,706 posts)There are a TON of people who dont pay any attention to politics until the last few weeks.
And there are plenty of mistakes that CAN be made. Biden & his team just has to make sure those are kept to a minimum.
azureblue
(2,161 posts)as he is tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on a rail? I would totally love to see The White House surrounded by thousands singing nah nah nah nah her good by, when he leaves
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