General Discussion
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(15,951 posts)book_worm
(15,951 posts)because I can't find it on that Twitter link.
calguy
(5,344 posts)It'll be interesting to see how these numbers change after the conventions are over and the campaigns swing into full gear.
The next two weeks should be particularly interesting to see if trump's paramilitary invasion of Democratic cities has any effect on the numbers in these red states.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)He isn't winning PA, IA, Arizona and WI and losing Michigan by five (as their polls suggest). That's just not going to happen.
brooklynite
(94,851 posts)Its a Republican poll, if they have Ernst down by 2...
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Just because they have her down doesn't mean she's down - just because they have Biden up in Iowa doesn't mean he's up, either.
Iowa seems less a sure thing right now than a slew of states Trump carried in 2016, including:
Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
and maybe even Texas.
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)Being that Obama won it twice.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)2008 was the watershed moment for Democrats in that state.
Obama won the state by ten points. They had Tom Harkin, so, the senate delegation was split Democratic & Republican. Their governor at the time was a Democrat (Chet Culver), and the Democrats had held that office since 1999. The only thing that has gone their way is the Iowa congressional delegation, as Democrats have three of the four seats.
But the state has shifted, unfortunately, and Hillary got obliterated in 2016.
It does not feel like 2012 anymore.
I think Iowa is winnable but it's not a state I would count on at this point. Mostly because Biden is polling roughly around where Hillary was four years ago. Right now, counting this current poll, Biden is averaging 45.6% of the vote and Trump is averaging 46%. So, close as all heck but in 2016, Trump led by an average of 3 points and won the state by nine.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)There were nearly twice as many conservatives as liberals in that state yet we were winning via a ridiculously favorable split among moderates. Now that the moderate vote has normalized and it's slightly more than a 2/1 split among conservatives over liberals, we really need every other variable to go our way
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Though it's interesting that those supposed moderates have split more evenly between the parties despite the GOP lurching hard right the last eight years.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)2004:
Iowa 36% conservatives 19% liberals
Missouri 36% conservatives 19% liberals
2008:
Iowa 37% conservatives 19% liberals
Missouri 36% conservatives 19% liberals
I remember taking note of that at the time. I mentioned it here. There was great reluctance to accept that Iowa was less than dependable going forward. For whatever reason Iowa didn't make the turn until a decade or more after Missouri became more conservative.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,858 posts)Biden will definitely do better in Michigan than Iowa.
Hope Biden wins ALL of the so-called swing-states, of course.
Sogo
(5,006 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)That aspect alone makes Trump's rally exponentially more difficult