Trump Has Always Been Governing On Borrowed Time, And Now That Time is Up

[Celerity]

Things are so bad, Trump is apparently calling Tucker Carlson to beg for help, and the GOP planning on abandoning him before November.

https://thebanter.substack.com/p/trump-has-always-been-governing-on



While Democrats should rightfully be extremely anxious about the upcoming presidential election, the polling information coming in from swing states reveals an incredibly bleak forecast for Donald Trump. Joe Biden’s lead is now so comprehensive that even if you account for the polling inaccuracies in 2016, Biden still takes the electoral college with relative ease. This reality appears to be finally dawning on Donald Trump, who has apparently been so worried about his re-election prospects that he is begging Tucker Carlson to tell him what to do. A recent report in Vanity Fair outlines just how bad things are in Trumpland: Republicans that have spoken with Trump in recent days describe him as depressed and “down in the dumps.” “People around him think his heart’s not in it,” a Republican close to the White House said. Torn between the imperative to win suburban voters and his instincts to play to his base, Trump has complained to people that he’s in a political box with no obvious way out. According to the Republican, Trump called Tucker Carlson late last week and said, “what do I do? What do I do?”

While Carlson isn’t an idiot, it is hard to see how he would advise Trump to do anything other than double down on White Nationalism and racial fear mongering. After all, he urges Trump to do that nightly on his show, and has never asked Trump to take responsibility for his disastrous handling of the Coronavirus pandemic (according to Carlson, it isn’t that bad and Democrats have used the pandemic to “subvert democracy and install themselves as monarchs”). If this is where Trump is going for advice, things must really be that bad. The rest of the GOP appears to now be extremely realistic about Trump’s re-election prospects: Nervous Republicans worried about losing the Senate are now debating when to break from Trump. Trump campaign internal polls show Trump’s level of “strong support” dropping from 21 to 17 points since last week, a person briefed on the numbers said. A source close to Iowa Republican Joni Ernst’s campaign said Ernst advisers are upset that a solid seat is now in play. “Joni’s campaign is pissed. They should not be in a competitive race,” the source said. ("This is completely false," an Ernst campaign spokesperson said in a statement. "Folks are energized about re-electing Joni Ernst, President Trump and the rest of Republican ballot in Iowa this November." ) A Republican strategist close to Mitch McConnell told me that Republicans have Labor Day penciled in as the deadline for Trump to have turned things around. After that, he’s on his own.

The notion that Trump can turn things around in less than two months is becoming increasingly absurd given the trajectory of Coronavirus and the economic crisis. There are no signs that Trump is turning either around, and the success of his presidency is almost completely dependent on his ability to do just that. Mitch McConnell no doubt understands that Trump is completely incapable of making the changes necessary, so will now be recalculating how to limit the enormous damage to the GOP. Republicans attached to objective reality (ie, those not in the Trump administration) understand that this is now about saving the Senate so they can thwart Biden’s legislative agenda when he gets in. How realistic is this? According to multiple polls, not very. The race to control the Senate is still close, but the political landscape has changed so dramatically in the last few months that Republicans are now on course to lose that too. Reported the NYTimes: Mr. Biden himself told a group of journalists last week that he could see his party winning as many as 53 Senate seats this year. And on Friday, as the Senate candidates struggle to raise money, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted its race ratings in 20 House seats — all in favor of the Democrats. And yes, you read that correctly: 20 House seats. This is in short, a complete catastrophe for the GOP. They have tied themselves to Trump’s presidency for the past four years, and are now apparently planning on severing themselves two months before the general election.

This clearly is not enough time, and no amount of race baiting, confederate flag waving, or fear mongering over the economy is going to do much to change things in the coming weeks. Voters now seem to be extremely cognizant of the fact that Trump and the GOP have failed to control the Coronavirus and failed to save the economy, and they are set to punish them at the polls in November. Many observers in 2016 predicted that Trump would be the end of the GOP. They thought he would crash and burn against Hillary Clinton, and take the GOP with him. Trump has spent four years mocking those who forecasted his demise, and Republicans have been more than happy to play along, protect him, and watch the country burn while he plays at being president. The reality is that those observers were not wrong about Trump and the GOP’s self immolation — they just did not take the deeply unfair electoral college into account that handed Trump the election despite losing the popular vote by almost three million people. Trump has been governing on borrowed time, delaying his inevitable demise by focusing almost entirely on short term political gimmicks. He does not think in terms of months or years, but how to survive the daily news cycle and keep the public focused on his Twitter account. Trump and the GOP have steadfastly ignored the warning signs and refused to think about the long term health of their party. It has taken 143,000 dead Americans for the country to wake up to this fact, but it now appears they have. Trump and the GOP are going to pay dearly for it in November, and should spend more time figuring out how to keep themselves out of jail than in political office.

[Jeroen]

1. Excellent analysis, spot on n/t

[EarlG]

2. As soon as GOPers split from Trump

Dem groups should start running ads in their states with the theme, "Senator X has abandoned the President, right when he needed him most. A true conservative would stand with Donald Trump, but Senator X doesn't have the guts."

Really start driving that base turnout down.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

4. great idea. it's all about moving the numbers on both sides

[Skittles]

6. EXCELLENT idea

[SiliconValley_Dem]

3. until I read this as post mortem on Wednesday Nov 4, I treat this as fiction

so many people told us in so many ways that Hillary had it in the bag. not listening to ANYONE and neither should any of you.

If you've never voted before, VOTE!

If you've donated to a campaign, DONATE!

If you've never registered others to vote, do that!

if you can drive people to the polls or otherwise drive turnout--let's do that!

our lives depend on not taking anything for granted.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

5. The author lost me at "Trump has been governing".

I've only seen him lie, deceive, implement horrible administrative policy, golf and campaign.

Otherwise, a pretty decent summary article.

Not sure how any effort could "save a presidency" that's been nothing but a constant shitstorm of failures....