Brace yourself for the latest COVID-19 predictions. You're not going to like them

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

ust two weeks ago, when Dr. Anthony Fauci predicted that the United States could see 100,000 cases of COVID-19 in a day, it seemed like a nightmare scenario. At the time America had just topped 40,000 cases for the first time. Make that 50,000. Then 60,000. Tuesday was the second day the nation logged over 70,000 cases in a day. It was also the first time the United States recorded over 1,000 deaths from COVID-19 since June 9.

To say that Mike Pence’s “no second wave” op-ed is going to be recorded as one of the most bassackwards statements in history is a given. But what’s shocking is that even Fauci’s prediction that was disturbing at the start of the month, looks like it could end up undershooting the real situation as badly as Pence did. The reasons for that are simple enough: We have governors who are willing to kill their people to score political points, we have a government determined to hide the truth of what’s happening, and we have people who are intentionally destroying their communities to own … whoever is left to care. And the result is that instead of 100,000 cases a day, the United States could be facing a million cases a day. Herd immunity, here we come … with half a million dead in tow.

On Wednesday evening, county commissioners in Provo, Utah convened a meeting for the purposes of discussing a proposed mandate to wear a face mask when schools convene in the fall. That meeting ended up being almost immediately adjourned because more than 100 non-mask-wearing people crammed into the small meeting room, refusing to keep their distance from each other or commissioners. Even more people turned up for an anti-mask rally before the meeting. Comments from those who came to give the commissioners a face full of unfiltered breath included statements that wearing a mask would “break the mind” of children, claims that allowing kids to play in the dirt would boost their immune systems to fight off the disease, and at least one claim that “COVID is a hoax. It’s a lie. It’s a political stunt."

And that, as much as any other event in the nation, is why hundreds of thousands of Americans are very likely to die in the next six months.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/7/16/1961288/-Brace-yourself-for-the-latest-COVID-19-predictions-You-re-not-going-to-like-them?detail=emaildkre

[pbmus]

1. Herd ignorance is deadly...

[RKP5637]

2. There are millions upon millions of really stupid people in today's US. And now the world knows it.

[Iliyah]

3. Heard an expert I believe on CNN say . .

herd immunity in the USA would result in at least 5 million in deaths.

WTF.

[Pluvious]

7. Isn't the requirement for herd immunity predicated upon persistent antibodies ?

I've been reading how survivors' antibodies fade quickly after recovery.

[localroger]

4. It goes back to what I call the Pond Riddle

There is an invasive lily pad which grows exponentially, doubling its population every day. You drop on in a pond, and on the thirtieth day the pond is entirely covered over. At what point is the pond half covered?

Nobody I've put this to has answered correctly, which is to instantly reply "day 29." If it's doubling every day and covers fully on any particular day, then it was at half coverage the day before. People don't see this easily because we're not wired to think that way. It just doesn't sound right -- but that's what the math says, and what many systems will really do in the real world.

In March we were on day 1 of the lily pad pond, and the doctors and epidemiologists knew what the lily pad would do which is why they were freaking out about it. For awhile we stopped the lily pads from proliferating, but then we decided the cost of scooping up as many of them as we could every day was too great and said fuck it.

Now we're at day ten or so, and we can't slow the lily pads down enough to effectively stop them any more. The experts know where it's going and it's getting harder to ignore, but by the time our linearly thinking public and leaders realize how bad the problem is it will be far too late to control.

It almost certainly already is.

[Phoenix61]

6. Thank you!

That is an excellent way to explain it. Plus, people in Florida know all about lily pads.

[MFGsunny]

5. Willful, wanton, reckless ignorance ...

... with a bigly dosage of stupid, selfish and self-important on the side in Provo, Utah.

[mackdaddy]

8. At this rate of infection, we could see US deaths climb to over 4,000 a day in a few weeks.

If you look a the recovered to death ratio we are still at between 5 and 10 percent of positive test patients do not make it.