Rating changes: Democratic control of Senate more likely because of Trump
ANALYSIS — After Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016, there’s a temptation to avoid making political projections. But one election result shouldn’t cause us to ignore the data. And right now, the preponderance of data points to a great election for Democrats, including taking control of the Senate.
As Joe Biden has grown a significant lead over Trump in the race for the White House, the Senate battleground has improved for Democrats down the ballot, including Inside Elections rating changes in eight races.
Some states, such as Colorado, Arizona, Maine and North Carolina, have been competitive for the entire cycle. But previously lower-tier contests in Iowa, Montana and Georgia are now hosting neck-and-neck Senate races. And Kansas, Texas, and even Alaska and South Carolina can’t be considered solid for Republicans anymore. That gives Democrats more than one legitimate path.
Democratic challengers continue to raise money at astounding rates, but arguably the biggest factor in boosting Democratic chances is the president underperforming his 2016 totals by 8-12 points or more. For example, Trump won Montana by 20 points four years ago, but the presidential race is likely within the margin of error today.
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/07/11/rating-changes-democratic-control-of-senate-more-likely-because-of-trump/?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletters&utm_content=07/11/2020
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