General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIt's extremely difficult for an incumbent to be elected when the country is in chaos
Americans do not like chaos and will always vote for calm.
4139
(1,893 posts)Wounded Bear
(58,765 posts)dalton99a
(81,673 posts)John Fante
(3,479 posts)Especially when compared to the 1967-1970. Only 24,000 troops remained in Vietnam by years end and the war was winding down.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)There were no large civil unrest incidents in 1972.
1968 was bad - with riots throughout multiple cities. But then, the incumbent party lost that election.
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)still_one
(92,492 posts)critical swing states, I wouldnt count on it
John Fante
(3,479 posts)non-violent protestor for that perception to stick. Not to mention Trump fanning the flames of chaos with his tweets.
TBH this will likely be just an ugly footnote in a year dominated by COVID-19 and Trump's botched handling of the pandemic.
still_one
(92,492 posts)whatever reason, it isnt helpful
uponit7771
(90,370 posts)FelineOverlord
(3,603 posts)Yes!
Bill Clinton crushed INCUMBENT George H.W. Bush in November 1992 in both the electoral college and popular votes - ESPECIALLY the electoral college.
The LA Riots happened in April and May of that year.
Electoral College:
Clinton 370
Bush 168
Popular:
Clinton 44,909,889
Bush 39,104,550
And Trump is much more hated than Bush I.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election#Detailed_results
empedocles
(15,751 posts)That is why rw is all out to exploit 'the riots'.
Yavin4
(35,453 posts)He's no where to be found. He's hiding from it, and that's a bad look. A real bad look.
BannonsLiver
(16,542 posts)StarfishSaver
(18,486 posts)customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)and the suburban soccer moms come back to him. Sure, they were pissed at him for capping their deductions for state and local taxes, but perhaps they may have refocused their anger on the state and local governments that have kept those taxes high. That's especially true if they feel that the taxes go to those in the cities who have been looting and burning.
Folks, this is 1968 all over again, as I see it.
StarfishSaver
(18,486 posts)So he could blame the turmoil on the existing leaders and promise he would fix it if he were elected.
On the other hand, Trump is the sitting president currently in control of the government. It's very difficult for him to convince anyone who's not already in his cult that he will restore law and order if reelected if he can't restore it now. Unlike Nixon, Trump owns the mess so he's in no position to exploit it for political gain. If those soccer moms are frightened, they're not likely to cast their lot with the guy who is causing the problem and has shown no ability to fix it.
2020 is not comparable to 1968
Ive heard and seen several people compare today to 1968 and to suggest that Trump, like Nixon, will benefit from the social unrest to win the election. But this is very different.
Among other things, Trump is not comparable to Nixon. 1968 Nixon was outside of government and capitalized on that, promising to step back in to restore the law and order he claimed the current government had failed to provide. He was running against the sitting vice president and, by proxy, the incumbent president, whom he painted as responsible for and unable to contain or correct the mess they created.
Conversely, 2020 Trump is the sitting president who is seen by pretty much everyone as deeply involved in and largely responsible for the chaos. Unlike Nixon, hes not running against the current regime. He IS the current regime. He cant promise to give us law and order or to step in and fix the mess because hes already in position to solve the problem but has failed and refused to do so.
Not only that, but unlike in 1968, it is impossible for him to successfully employ Nixons tactic of painting this as anti-American hippies and violent blacks threatening a peaceful, patriotic silent majority. That wont work because the right is widely and correctly seen as a hostile group, prone to violence and disruption just as much and, in fact more than, those on the left.
In 1968, Nixon was able to convince frightened white people that he could protect them. But any white person who believes Trump can protect them is already wearing a MAGA cap. But I am pretty sure that very few white people who feel frightened about whats going on but havent decided to vote for Trump are likely to vote for the man who has proven himself incapable of protecting them from all of this because he himself has caused all of this.
On the other hand, Joe Biden is much more in the position Nixon held in 1968: a former vice president who has stepped back into the arena. He is offering an alternative to the madness were engulfed in.
But Bidens no Nixon he doesnt have to fear monger or divide or demagogue about law and order because Trump has already done that and has led us to the brink of disaster. He needs only show us how he plans to return us to decency and competence and honesty and voters on the fence will flock to him.
This is not just like 1968.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213512044
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)How old were you in 1968?
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)somewhat of an "outsider" while occupying the White House. I know that sounds somewhat counter-intuitive, but the impeachment vote in the House clearly established him as being counter to Democratic government.