What happens if our leaders "open up" the economy and nobody comes?

[Laelth]

At present, the only Republican plan that I can discern to address the economic fallout from the Coronavirus is to “open up” the economy—whatever that means. They blame our current economic misery on various states and municipalities that have enacted stay-at-home orders. This approach is foolish, at best.

We can eliminate state and locally mandated stay-at-home orders all we want, and it won’t change a thing. Most Americans are sane and don’t want to die. Business owners are already saying thanks, but no thanks, to Republican suggestions that they reopen. Why? It’s because they’re not stupid, and they know that it would be a losing proposition for them to reopen without enough patrons to support the cost of running their businesses. They could care less whether stay-at-home orders are in place. Eliminate them all, and nothing will change. For the foreseeable future, most Americans are staying home, like it or not.

The results look pretty catastrophic.

Unemployment is already higher than it has ever been since the Great Depression. Supposedly, we’re somewhere between 15-20% at this EARLY STAGE of our looming depression. At the height of the Great Depression unemployment hit 25%.

Oil is effectively free on the market at this point. Petrochemicals are an enormous segment of the American economy, and the petrochemical industry is on the verge of collapse because nobody wants to buy their products (supply has far outstripped demand). The American petrochemical industry may lose 100,000 jobs if something doesn’t change soon.

Las Vegas is effectively dead. Tourism, in general, is nearly dead as are our airlines. Our economy is in seriously bad shape.

Given this state of affairs, a GREAT DEPRESSION seems quite likely to me. Our alleged leaders can call for the economy to “reopen” all they want. At this point, the American people aren’t showing up for the party. No way. We don’t want to die.

-Laelth

[Zoonart]

1. More businesses will go broke faster.

Can you imagine staffing up a restaurant, ordering provisions to complete your menu and then open your doors to two tables a night?
It won't work. It can't work.

[Laelth]

2. Precisely.

Now what?



-Laelth

[theaocp]

9. TPTB will alter MF45's path for him or people will get sick and die.

That's pretty much it. I've been having more and more frequent dreams about dying gasping for breath in a hospital bed. We're all getting PTSD from this shit.

[Laelth]

14. Honestly, I think you are right.

Nobody has confidence in the federal government, at the moment, because of how inept Trump and his sycophants are. Perhaps Joe Biden can deliver an FDR-like speech at his inauguration—“The only thing we have to fear is fear, itself,” and perhaps Joe can restore the confidence necessary to actually do something about the economic devastation caused by the Coronavirus.

I certainly hope so.



-Laelth

[leftyladyfrommo]

29. I think restaurants know that.

Anywhere that is strictly entertainment where people congregation will be in trouble until people begin to feel safe.

You can't eat with a mask on.

[Laelth]

49. Yup. n/t

-Laelth

[guillaumeb]

3. Polling shows that fewer people are believing Trump's lies. eom

[Laelth]

5. The economy is proving that in spades. n/t

-Laelth

[cayugafalls]

4. Texas and Florida plan to have a party.

Texans all around me are jubilant.

At least Houston has the Mask order requiring masks. But that does nothing to stop people from ignoring it since the chief of police said he was advising his union to use their discretion enforcing the law. So yippee, shove your spittle laden faces in my direction you useful idiots and see how fast you get my wrath.

[Laelth]

10. The state leaders may be planning parties.

Some MAGAts may even show up for it, and then they will go home and try to stay healthy. No politically-motivated party is going to eradicate the reasonable fear that most Americans have of the novel Coronavirus.

-Laelth

[cayugafalls]

13. Yea, I was kidding. I'm feeling sad today so my typing is off.

My apologies.

[Laelth]

15. No biggie.

I am a little uptight today. I missed the sarcasm. My bad.



-Laelth

[RockRaven]

6. Hotels, resorts, casinos, cinemas, restaurants, airlines, etc won't stay afloat with

half of their usual customers staying away. Which is what's going to happen even if every stay-at-home order in the country evaporated tomorrow.

The stay-at-home orders aren't the thing killing these businesses -- the stay-at-home choices of the customer base are. And that isn't going to change without better testing, better treatment, better prevention, and better coordination and communication about the first three.

[Laelth]

11. Yep. That is precisely the situation we are in.

Reasonable FEAR is crushing our economy, and I can’t see anything reasonable that we can do about it.

-Laelth

[stopbush]

18. Exactly. What's next? The government declares that anyone on unemployment benefits

needs to go out and spend 25% of their benefit $ on sit-down restaurants/airfares/etc or their benefits will be cut off?

[crickets]

45. +1

[Mariana]

46. A lot of places closed and cancelled before the orders came down.

Most of what has happened was going to happen anyway.

[3Hotdogs]

7. I started thinking this morning on what/where I would most like to go back to

when things open up.

There were restaurants, movie houses and casinos.

Then I thought about those.... none would be considered safe, for maybe 2 years from now.

As much as I would like to, I won't go to any.

[Laelth]

35. I suspect that all sane Americans agree with you.

For this very reason, a depression is inevitable.

-Laelth

[Newest Reality]

8. Thanks!

Last edited Thu Apr 23, 2020, 02:12 PM - Edit history (1)

Consider the cascading system failures that can occur in a JIT system, as well. The only fat there is at the top in the coffers of those that have and are getting much more for having it.

The Neo-Liberal approach is "just in time" because it is the most profitable and "efficient" short-term method to increase the wealth of the wealthy. It means that the system is slim, there is little to no storage and extra supplies. That also means that you could expect what we are seeing and predict that it will get worse.

There is no sense or resilience in a system like that and the profit motive as the only incentive makes it a house of cards. One sneeze and, well, look. I would all that a very STUPID society when they forget the fact, (or casually ignore) that there are lean years and fat years; smooth times and rough ones. It is INEVITABLE. That's not just a theory.

The potential for the Greatest Depression is upon us. What makes me say that is that the leadership is obviously failing miserably and exacerbating what may seem now like a butterfly affect, but there is a huge storm brewing in that due to the fundamental problems that have existed in this country and have been worsening for decades.

We are going to find out what is really wrong with this country, the hard way. Maybe we can manage to survive it, but not if people are going to be reactionary rather than responsive, flippant rather than vigilant, entertained rather than involved, etc.

This is a serious epoch unfolding and only a few can avoid it and they're the ones that helped to forge our path to vulnerability.

[gibraltar72]

19. Just in time has always been a huge potential clusterfuck. It totally depends on nothing going wrong

Our local grocer has been buying stuff that was packaged for Restaurants. 15 lb. Box of bacon 10 lbs of hamburger patties etc. he says that supply chain is about exhausted. Where are restaurants going to get their food? I told some right wing guy the other day more businesses will fail over premature opening than otherwise would if we waited till people felt safe. Absolutely could not get his mind around fact that not everyone was as dumb as he and his friends.

[Newest Reality]

23. Thanks for the anecdote.

I imagine we will be hearing a lot of grumbling and question mark expressions from people who don't get that.

I guess, if they have a bit of belly fat, one could point to it. "You see that? That's what your body does to store some energy when your JIT is disrupted! In this case, your JIT is thin as a rail and emaciated."

[ProfessorGAC]

38. Doesn't Have To Be

JIT is not intended to be an inflexible construct.
But, it became a CF, when quarterly profit meant unsold inventory was a terrible thing, even in stable, nonseasonal demand products.
So, safety stock levels are always cut to the bone & when a demand spike hits, there's no quick recovery.
I certainly get it, regarding perishable stuff, but paper towels? Hard surface cleaners?
The profit loss by incremental increases to not yet sold inventory is miniscule.
The added profit I generated by process optimization was more in a month, than a "reduce safety stock" initiative for 10 products would save in 2 years.
And I found two big hitters a year, for 15 years. Use that extra cash to boost inventories!
But, no. What will the analysts say is days sale on hand goes from 12 to 18? Ignore them. Profits are rising more than revenue. DSOH is a statistic used by people who don't really understand business operation.
The problem isn't JIT inherently. It's a terrible execution of the principle.

[gibraltar72]

40. My experience was in manufacturing years ago.

Nobody wanted to have anything in a warehouse. Subs put it on the truck and it was delivered to be assembled, theoretically it didn't always work out that way.

[ProfessorGAC]

41. Same Thing G

That's poor execution. Taking JIT to "nothing in the warehouse" is ludicrous.
Even marginally run JIT systems have safety stock >zero.
Even bulk liquid manufacturers don't wait until the storage tank is empty to rebuild inventory! Well, most don't.
Some may be as dumb as the people who did what you experienced.

[gibraltar72]

42. It all works until it doesn't

[ProfessorGAC]

44. The Sites I Worked Used It

But, was managed pretty well. Very well in bulk shipments, just OK in packaged goods. (55 gallon drums & 2,000# minibulk)
But, even when I helped out by running statistical reviews of their historical operations, I never saw anything egregious like a safety stock of one pallet, or 10% of a bulk tank. Still, people put projects into the cost optimization database doing that. Saving pennies. People spending 10% of their time for a year to save $8,000.
At least those didn't trigger bonuses!
But, aside from some special formulated products that had very tricky phase behavior, and super difficult products, I recall no panic over inventory depletion.
I know I'm beating this drum but the problem is people not able to grasp the whole picture when they start assigning inventory levels.

[Laelth]

26. Well said. n/t

-Laelth

[SWBTATTReg]

12. Good points! Perhaps a redevelopment of our economy is now occurring. Better efforts to ...

manage our digital world is being done as we speak. Capacity has increased on data networks, as well as every online type of service out the on the Internet. It's truly now the digital highway the US.

Also, a redevelopment of some of the methods to get products sold via the delivery process, since now it is the main meeting place between the customer and the retail outlet. Sure you have pretty significant unemployment issues, but other areas of employment have also enjoyed some pretty significant gains (delivery services, more crews to clean retail stores overnight, more cleaning (heavy duty) crews (to disinfect retail and/or other locations, etc.), redeployment of some restaurant workers (to drive in portions of the business) etc. Things that we wouldn't ordinarily think of.

They've thrown enough money at us (through all of these rebates, etc.), but I think you're also right that they can't force us to go out and spend a damn dime, until we feel safe. I think that in some of homes, spending is reduced and people may be saving $ for once, and thus, are somewhat getting ahead of the bills. That is, a lot of us aren't driving as much, not going out to eat or drink, reduced some car ins. bills, etc..

Despite what the idiot thinks (rump), the consumer with his/her own issues (and not certainly rump's), will do what they damn will do w/o being told what to do, and if they want to stay home, they will. And we won't spend money like you want us to. Screw you, rump. All of you that screwed up.

[Laelth]

48. Great response. Thank you. n/t

-Laelth

[SWBTATTReg]

50. Thank yiou for opening up such an interesting topic in return. You would think w/ the CV...

running amuck through some of our neighborhoods that republicans would think seriously twice about opening up 'stuff'. And all while there is still not enough information out there on the full impact/ramifications of what the CV can do to an exposed population!

I think that they (the republicans) are so blinded as to the negative impacts against business interests that they are ignoring them (the negative stuff). The ridiculous and obscene single mindedness of the republicans on this 'opening' up the economy is foolhardy and staggering, and IMHO, we will see the negative impacts soon with all of the beaches opened up, and some businesses opened up. Sure you can be safe, but is it really safe? Do we really know all about the CV that we need to know? Kind of foolhardy to me to jump the gun, so to speak.

Many examples now exist where 'opening' up have resulted in death and serious illness occurring.

What exactly do the republicans actually stand for, I wonder? The Steven Moore school of thought, where the mentality of 'let our seniors go ahead and get sick and perhaps die, too, save the economy instead' or the school of thought that all of us would like an equal chance at life too, regardless of age, regardless of gender, regardless of anything? Don't we all have that equal right/chance to survive?

It is ironic to me that it seems like the republicans themselves need to go back to Economics school and relearn when, how, why, etc. when consumers spend their hard earned money (and they call themselves the party that represents Business). The consumers (you and I) certainly don't spend our money based upon the value of the Dow Jones Industrial averages, as some seem to do (rump, moore, and other worthless idiots).

Take care and be safe!

[Laelth]

51. Hear! Hear!

And thank you. My best to you and yours.



-Laelth

[Ferrets are Cool]

16. Oh, here in Alabama, they will swarm to anything OPEN. nt

[Laelth]

17. Some will.

But it won’t be enough to sustain those businesses. Even in Alabama, most people are sane.

-Laelth

[Ferrets are Cool]

21. I humbly disagree. Most here are repugs...ie Not Sane

[stopbush]

20. We must remember that we are in a tRump-created shitstorm.

It didn’t have to be this way. The reason we’re out of work and racking up debt is ENTIRELY DUE to tRump’s incompetence. You don’t drop a nuke on a city and expect biz to be back to normal in a week.

[Laelth]

27. A strong leader, at this time, is needed to restore confidence ...

... and combat fear. Trump changes his mind on a dime—says one day he supports Georgia’s governor’s decision to “reopen” the economy, and then, the next day, he lies and says he called Georgia’s governor and advised him NOT to “reopen” the economy. It’s impossible to have confidence in a “leader” like Trump. Even most Republicans distrust him at this stage.

-Laelth

[forthemiddle]

22. No matter when things open up that will happen

Whether it’s early May, early June, or even early July some people will still be hesitant to go back to normal. If, and this is a big if, after 2-4 weeks there is no overwhelming of the hospitals, or a straight surge up, then things will start to normalize.

I’m not advocating reopening, I’m just saying that until a vaccine is in place, there will always be that trepidation to reopen. We have to reopen eventually.

[Laelth]

24. Eventually, sure.

But a vaccine could be years away. Regardless, our economy is being reshaped and transformed. It’s going to be a bumpy ride, and I don’t see much that we can do about it.

My principal point was that merely declaring the economy “open” isn’t going to accomplish anything.

-Laelth

[brer cat]

25. GA is about to find out.

I don't know anyone who plans to go out to these open establishments. Still staying home.

[crickets]

30. +1

[marked50]

28. Excellent Analysis--Thanks

[Hortensis]

31. Many won't. Restaurant reservations took a steep drive

across the nation in mid march, before the first stay-at-home order, out in California, but had started dropping in some cities, including southern, before that. Self protection.

Opening up the economy won’t save the economy
Trump and Republican governors can’t make people eat at restaurants.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/22/21228651/opening-up-save-economy-trump-coronavirus-pandemic-shutdown

[Laelth]

37. Precisely. n/t

-Laelth

[ProfessorGAC]

39. We Canceled Reservations...

...for our 40th anniversary! That's how concerned we were. Didn't matter.
Two days before we were planned to go out, Illinois did stay at home, restaurants were deemed nonessential.
We canceled a couple days before that.

[Hortensis]

43. You wanted a 41st more. And that was BEFORE awareness

spread both of survivors left with permanent damage to vital organs and of this dreadful clotting disorder that's also killing and crippling people in their 30s, 40s and 50s. We still have to find out, for those who recover enough to have a life, if that goes away or becomes chronic/recurrent.

So the news is becoming more frightening. I suspect a lot of the businesses trying to open now may not be able to meet basic expenses and have to close again.

Nick Cordero, the Broadway star whose leg was amputated some days ago, hasn't awakened from coma, though he should have by now. He had a temporary pacemaker put in today because of irregular heart conduction, in advance of other procedures. They hope to remove him from the ventilator Monday and put in trach and feeding tubes. And this was a wonderfully healthy, vigorous guy before COVID. He has a wife and tiny son.

[KentuckyWoman]

32. Oh, they will come.

Even cruise ships.

David Muir will move on to something else. The next shiney thing will come. When individuals are burying family due to covid it will not be reported.

[Laelth]

33. You are more optimistic than I.

If “optimistic” is the right word in this context.

-Laelth

[KentuckyWoman]

34. I understand.

We live in a curious time. 100 or so years from now perhaps they will know if "news-tainment" and social media were worth it. But from my perspective I do not think so.

My local grocery spends a lot of money to get people to like and share. Not wages.. . Even DU is so different from what it was just a few years ago. Now half the posts are the twit of the moment.

[NickB79]

36. Would a business that reopened open itself to lawsuits if a customer dies?

Something else to think about.

[Dem2]

47. I know I won't

And I'll be extremely harsh to those wingnut businesses who support the bleach drinker.

[Laelth]

52. You are not alone, by any means. n/t

-Laelth